Tips to Feel Better – Mindfulness

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“Mindfulness gives you time. Time gives you choices. Choices, skillfully made, lead to freedom.” – Bhante Henepola Gunaratana

Feeling good means that your body and mind are working at their peak level, and you have a general sense of well-being, says David Rakel, MD, founder and the director of the integrative medicine program at the University of Wisconsin (UW). The vision of the UW’s program is “Inspiring health and wellness in patients, communities, and ourselves”.

Life is short and a precious gift. Thus, it’s critical to enjoy and live fully each day To feel good day after day, Rakel suggests:

Stay focused on the present moment.

“If we can learn to recognize the clutter that our mind is in and learn to be more mindful of the present moment, that can be a tremendous asset to our overall sense of well-being,” Rakel says. The “clutter” that can make you feel bad includes regret about the past and worry that bad things might happen to you.

A practice called mindfulness can help you reduce the clutter by keeping your focus on the present moment. Mindfulness means maintaining a moment-by-moment awareness of our thoughts, feelings, bodily sensations, and surrounding environment, through a gentle, nurturing lens.

Mindfulness also involves acceptance, meaning that we pay attention to our thoughts and feelings without judging them—without believing, for instance, that there’s a “right” or “wrong” way to think or feel in a given moment. When we practice mindfulness, our thoughts tune into what we’re sensing in the present moment rather than rehashing the past or imagining the future.

To be more mindful, try to:

  • Take in the colors, sounds, and smells that surround you at any given time.
  • Pay attention to your breath moving in and out of your body for a few moments.
  • Let worrisome thoughts flow out of your mind when they pop up, rather than giving them attention and dwelling on them.

Studies have shown that practicing mindfulness, even for just a few weeks, can bring a variety of physical, psychological, and social benefits. Here are some of these benefits according to The Greater Good Science Center at the University of California, Berkeley, which extend across many different settings.

  • Mindfulness is good for your bodies: A seminal study found that, after just eight weeks of training, practicing mindfulness meditation boosts your immune system’s ability to fight off illness. Practicing mindfulness may also improve sleep quality.
  • Mindfulness is good for your minds: Several studies have found that mindfulness increases positive emotions while reducing negative emotions and stress. Indeed, at least one study suggests it may be as good as antidepressants in fighting depression and preventing relapse.
  • Mindfulness changes our brains: Research has found that it increases density of gray matter in brain regions linked to learning, memory, emotion regulation, and empathy.
  • Mindfulness helps you focus: Studies suggest that mindfulness helps you tune out distractions and improves your memory, attention skills, and decision-making.

In addition to mindfulness, it’s important to try to stay positive and focus on the positive.

The same event can happen to two people, and one views it as a positive and one views it as a negative. So try to see the good side of the things and people around you; it can help you stay free of anxiety and depression, Rakel says.

And, there is a strong connection between psychological health and longevity. In fact, optimism, purpose, and happiness have all been tied to living longer, suggesting you may want to cultivate these attributes in your life.

“How we pay attention to the present moment largely determines the character of our experience, and therefore, the quality of our lives.” – Sam Harris

Make a spiritual connection.

Rakel defines this as spending time on “that which gives your life meaning and purpose.”This could be your religious beliefs, enjoying nature, or sharing moments with loved ones. “If we get up in the morning excited about something that gives us meaning and self-purpose, our bodies do all they can to heal,” he says.

Be around people.

Having a good support network of family, friends, coworkers, and other people who care about you can help you stay healthier, feel less stressed, and even live a longer life. Spend time with these people regularly, and work to keep your relationships with them strong.

Bottomline, by being mindful, you can train yourself to live in the present moment to handle life’s challenges with a clear mind to help you feel better and live your best life.

Focus on good health and emotional well-being.

“Mindfulness is deliberately paying full attention to what is happening around you– in your body, heart, and mind. Mindfulness is awareness without criticism or judgment.” – Jan Chozen Bays

Healthy aging

If you want to live a long, healthy life as you age, it’s important to keep physically healthy by eating right, exercising, and getting enough sleep.

People with significantly higher than average life satisfaction, positive feelings, purpose in life, or optimism at age 50 lived an average of five to eight additional years. “Achieving high levels of these aspects of well-being have really important impacts on people living longer and healthier lives,” says researcher Jennifer Boylan, University of Michigan’s Health and Retirement Study. “Their presence is worth focusing on more than it has been.”

References:

  1. https://www.webmd.com/balance/features/more-energy
  2. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/topic/mindfulness/definition#why-practice-mindfulness
  3. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/four_keys_to_wellbeing_that_may_help_you_live_longer

An Attitude of Gratitude

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“Be in a state of gratitude for everything that shows up in your life. Be thankful for the storms as well as the smooth sailing. What is the lesson or gift in what you are experiencing right now? Find your joy not in what’s missing in your life but in how you can serve.” Wayne Dyer

Gratitude is the quality of being thankful. It’s a readiness to show appreciation

Gratitude is a foundational element to building wealth. Gratitude allows you to find joy in and focus on what you already have because envy is the stealer of wealth and comparison is the thief of joy.  If you are constantly comparing yourself to others you will never have enough. You will feel empty and inadequate. You will not find happiness.

As media mogul Oprah Winfrey explains, “Be thankful for what you have; you’ll end up having more. If you concentrate on what you don’t have, you will never, ever have enough.”

“Gratitude turns what you have into enough.” Unknown

“Mother Theresa talked about how grateful she was to the people she was helping, the sick and dying in the slums of Calcutta, because they enabled her to grow and deepen her spirituality,” explains Robert A. Emmons, Ph.D., is the world’s leading scientific expert on gratitude and professor of psychology at the University of California, Davis.

Like Mother Theresa’s spiritual growth, there are several important reasons that gratitude can have transformative effects on your own life, according to Dr. Emmons. Additionally, there are four effects he sites:

1. Gratitude allows you to appreciate and celebrate the present. It magnifies positive emotions.

Research on emotion shows that positive emotions wear off quickly. Our emotional system likes newness and novelty. It likes change. You adapt to positive life circumstances so that before too long, the new car, the new spouse, the new house—they don’t feel so new and exciting anymore.

But gratitude makes you focus on and appreciate the value of something, and when you appreciate the value of something, you extract more benefits from it; you’re less likely to take it for granted, states Dr. Emmons.

In effect, gratitude allows you to participate more in life. You notice the positives more, and that magnifies the pleasures you get from life. Instead of adapting to goodness, you celebrate goodness. You spend more time watching and doing things with gratitude. Effectively, you become a greater participant in your life as opposed to being a spectator.

2. Gratitude blocks toxic, negative emotions, such as envy, resentment, regret—emotions that can destroy our happiness. A 2008 study by psychologist Alex Wood in the Journal of Research in Personality, showed that gratitude can reduce the frequency and duration of episodes of depression.

You cannot feel envious and grateful at the same time. They’re incompatible feelings. If you’re grateful, you can’t resent someone for having something that you don’t.

3. Grateful people are more stress resistant. There’s a number of studies showing that in the face of serious trauma, adversity, and suffering, if people have a grateful disposition, they’ll recover more quickly. In short, gratitude gives people a perspective from which they can interpret negative life events and help them guard against post-traumatic stress and lasting anxiety.

4. Grateful people have a higher sense of self-worth. When you’re grateful, you have the sense that someone else is looking out for you—someone else has provided for your well-being, or you notice a network of relationships, past and present, of people who are responsible for helping you get to where you are right now.

Once you start to recognize the contributions that other people have made to your life—once you realize that other people have seen the value in you—you can transform the way you see yourself.

Thus, it’s imperative for you to cultivate gratitude and to overcome the challenges to gratitude. You must put conscious and deliberate effort into practicing gratitude.

“Gratitude is the healthiest of all human emotions. The more you express gratitude for what you have, the more likely you will have even more to express gratitude for.” Zig Ziglar

First is to keep a gratitude journal as a way to cultivate gratitude, says Dr. Emmons. This can mean listing just five things for which you’re grateful every week. This practice works because it consciously, intentionally focuses your attention on developing more grateful thinking and on eliminating ungrateful thoughts. It helps guard against taking things for granted; instead, you will see gifts in life as new and exciting. People who live a life of pervasive thankfulness really do experience life differently than people who cheat themselves out of life by not feeling grateful.

Another gratitude exercise is to practice counting your blessings on a regular basis, maybe first thing in the morning, maybe in the evening. What are you grateful for today? You don’t have to write them down on paper.

Additionally, you can use concrete reminders to practice gratitude, says Dr. Emmons. For example, a Vancouver family developed a practice of putting money in “gratitude jars.” At the end of the day, they put spare change into those gratitude jars. They had a regular reminder, a habit, to get them to focus on gratitude. When the jar became full, they gave away the money to a good cause within their community.

Gratitude journals and other gratitude practices seem simple and basic, but studies have shown that people who keep gratitude journals for just three weeks realize results that have been overwhelmingly beneficial in their lives, according to Dr. Emmons.

The bottomline is that having an ‘attitude of gratitude’ is the key ingredient to living your best and most rewarding life. It’s a practice and habit that we must all embrace.

“The ultimate path to enlightment is the cultivation of gratitude. When you’re grateful, fear disappears. When you’re grateful lack disapears. You feel a sense that life is uniquely blessed, but at the same time, you feel like you’re a part of everything that exists and you know that you are not the source of it.” Tony Robbins

References:

  1. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/why_gratitude_is_good
  2. https://thestrive.co/gratitude-quotes/
  3. https://blog.gratefulness.me/gratitude-quotes/

Robert A. Emmons, Ph.D., is the world’s leading scientific expert on gratitude. He is a professor of psychology at the University of California, Davis, and the founding editor-in-chief of The Journal of Positive Psychology. He is the author of the books Gratitude Works!: A 21-Day Program for Creating Emotional Prosperity and Thanks! How the New Science of Gratitude Can Make You Happier.

Miracle of Compounding Returns

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“The compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business, finance and human existence. Everything you learn is additive, every day. And if you keep at it and don’t quit, it’s an incredible miracle.” Bruce Flatt

Bruce Flatt, the chief executive officer of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. said in an episode of Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein, “Everyone always thinks about geopolitical events, and one needs to be careful in business with everything they do. But, all geopolitical events pass. Wars, explosions, recessions — all those things, they come and go. And they’re really important at the time, but if you have good businesses in great places and keep compounding returns, you’ll earn excellent long-term returns.”

Brookfield is a place that tries to make as many small mistakes as you possibly can, according to Flatt, which means that they’re “testing the windows every day, but just don’t make any really large mistakes. People are encouraged to make small mistakes. And that’s a good thing. It means that we’re testing the limits of where we should be going.”

Brookfield focuses on infrastructure investments such as toll roads, utilities and real estate and they use their own balance sheet to invest alongside clients.

The company is also adding more wealth products for individual investors. Last year, it started its own private real estate investment trust after taking over a portfolio of properties overseen by a subsidiary of Oaktree Capital Management.

The best investment advice, according to Flatt, is to invest early and then do not sell your assets in order to take advantage of “the miracle of compound interest”. “The compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business, finance and human existence”‘ states Flatt. “Everything you learn is additive, every day. And if you keep at it and don’t quit, it’s an incredible miracle.”

Thus, they’ve made lots of little mistakes, but you can’t compound at 17% for 30 years, or 20% annualized for 20 years, and make any big mistakes. It’s impossible.

The argument for putting money in an active investment vs. an index fund are straight forward. If an individual has very little knowledge of or time to dedicate to investing, owning a passive index fund in equities is probably the right thing to do. They should “Put their money in an index fund and don’t sell. Just keep it in and let it compound over a long period of time.”

There are two macro concerns every investor should heed:

  • 1970s-like inflation, or
  • Interest rates at 8% in the United States,.

Those two things are macro things can’t be controlled. But if those two things occur, then it changes the paradigm of what you should be doing with your capital.  

“Inflation actually is a positive for most of the things that we do,” Mr Flatt stated. “If this office building costs X to build today and inflation comes, it’s going to cost X plus something, which means that the rent to justify a new building is more.”

The real macro issue of great concern is interest rates. But “if interest rates spiral out of control and go up a lot, then that changes the paradigm”. It is an outcome that he fears but does not expect to happen.

References:

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-05/brookfield-billionaire-flatt-reveals-secret-behind-3-700-return
  2. https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/brookfield-billionaire-reveals-the-secret-behind-its-3700pc-return-20220406-p5ab5x

“The doors on wisdom are never shut.” Benjamin Franklin

Bond vs Stock Dividend Yields

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“Bonds have nowhere to go but down since interest rates have nowhere to go but up.” Liz Young

Investment income is vital in shaping the returns on equity and debt securities.

Comparing income and yields from bonds and dividend paying stocks are a useful metric because they are a function of both the income to be received on a security and the current price of that security, according to Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy for SoFi.

Dividend yield on the S&P 500 vs. the yield on the 10-year Treasury are a useful because they are a function of both the income to be received on a security and the current price of that security, said Young.

The simple way to read this chart would be to say the yield on a 10-year Treasury is considerably more attractive than the dividend yield on stocks. But not all yields are created equal.

There not equivalent because investors traditionally buy stocks for their upside potential, not for their dividend income.

Whereas bonds are traditionally thought of as an income generating debt asset. Which means this metric is useful, but not the end-all-be-all decision factor. Dividend stocks are traditionally thought of as an income generating equity asset.

“Treasury bond yields could hit a ceiling (meaning prices hit a floor) and start moving in the opposite direction”, states Young. “This could be caused by:

  • A breakdown in the economy (thus increasing fear of recession),
  • A moderation in inflation, and/or
  • The Federal Reserve turning less hawkish.”

The best time to buy US Treasuries was in the early 1980s, when interest rates were peaking, and high fixed rates were destined to look good over the long term.

“Bonds have nowhere to go but down since interest rates have nowhere to go but up”, says Young. Bonds would not function effectively in the current rising interest rate and historic inflationary environment to protect investors’ downside risk. Bonds would not offer protection to downside shocks in stocks.

Historically speaking, it’s best for investors to avoid bonds when central banks print money. More cash can lead to inflation, which can lead to central banks raising interest rates higher—and put a damper on any fixed-rate assets.

“Never depend on a single income; make an investment to create a second source.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.sofi.com/blog/liz-looks-stocks-vs-bonds/
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettowens/2020/08/06/the-7-best-and-worst-bonds-to-buy-right-now/

Jackie Robinson #42

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Jackie Robinson, the six-time Major League Baseball (MLB) All-Star and Hall of Famer, wasn’t just a pioneering athlete. His effort—and sacrifice—launched a cascade of human and civil rights advances.

Seventy-five years ago when Jackie Roosevelt Robinson started at first base for the Brooklyn Dodgers on April 15, 1947, he broke major league baseball’s six-decade-long color barrier, which not only made him an icon to those fighting for racial equality, but he was also a target for those who sought to fight against it. Jackie’s poise and strength—both on and off the field—are why he is honored today. He signaled to America that African Americans would no longer remain quiet and accept second-class citizenship status. 

“His courage and bravery played a major role in the history of integration, both on the field and throughout American society,” wrote Harvard historian Henry Louis Gates, “and no history of the civil rights movement would be complete without noting Robinson’s major role.” 

“Jackie Robinson gave all of us—not only black athletes, but every black person in this country—a sense of our own strength,” wrote MLB Hall of Famer Hank Aaron in his introduction to Robinson’s autobiography ‘I Never Had It Made’. 

Robinson’s strength was not only as a gifted athlete and fierce competitor who earned Rookie of the Year, MVP and six-time All-Star status. His strength manifested itself as dogged perseverance in the face of a tidal wave of racism—from daily taunts and threats to broad institutional inequities.

Robinson’s athletic brilliance and contributions to history earned him the Presidential Medal of Freedom and resulted in Major League Baseball retiring his number “42” in 1997—a first for any athlete, in any sport. 


Shortly before Robinson’s induction into MLB Hall of Fame ceremony, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. paid tribute to Robinson’s pioneering achievements this way: “Back in the days when integration wasn’t fashionable, he underwent the trauma and the humiliation and the loneliness that comes with being a pilgrim walking the lonesome byways toward the high road of Freedom. He was a sit-inner before sit-ins, a freedom rider before freedom rides.” 

U.S. Army

After receiving his military draft notice in March 1943, Army recruit Robinson reported to Fort Riley, Kansas for basic training. After racism initially barred him and other Black recruits from Officer Candidate School—despite their clear eligibility—they were eventually accepted.

But his time in the segregated U.S. Army would prove deeply frustrating. It ended not long after an incident near Fort Hood, Texas. In 1944, he was riding in a U.S. Army bus with the wife of a fellow Black officer. The driver, believing the light-skinned woman to be white, ordered Robinson to the back of the bus. Robinson, noting the fact that U.S. Army buses were not segregated, refused. The driver backed down, but called Military Police after the ride. Robinson was taken into custody and eventually court-martialed for disrespecting and disobeying a superior officer, disturbing the peace and drunkenness (although he neither drank nor smoked). He fought back and, despite false witness statements stacking the deck against him, he was eventually acquitted of all charges and received an honorable discharge in 1944, having reached the rank of second lieutenant.

Jackie Robinson Day

Beginning in 2007, players across the MLB started wearing Robinson’s No. 42 every April 15 in observance of Jackie Robinson Day, a tradition that continues.

References:

  1. https://www.history.com/news/jackie-robinson-life-baseball-pictures
  2. https://www.history.com/news/jackie-robinson-color-barrier-baseball

Purpose

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“The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle. As with all matters of the heart, you’ll know when you find it.” Steve Jobs

Purpose is an abiding intention to achieve a long-term goal that is both personally meaningful and makes a positive mark on the world, according to The Greater Good Science Center at the University of California, Berkeley. The goals that foster a sense of purpose are ones that can potentially change and improve the lives of other people. “If you can tune into your purpose and really align with it, setting goals so that your vision is an expression of that purpose, then life flows much more easily”, says author Jack Canfield

Purpose is not a destination, but a life’s journey, a mindset and a practice. It’s accessible at any age and at any income level, if we’re “willing to explore what matters to us and what kind of person we want to be—and act to become that person”. Filmmaker and author Drew Scott Pearlman writes: “Your purpose must be particular to you. This is the road less traveled. Your purpose cannot be someone else’s path, not your family’s path nor your friends’ path.”

Individuals with a sense of purpose report higher levels of happiness and life satisfaction—which seems associated with better health, wealth and emotional well-being outcomes. For many people, it was good and beneficial to have a purpose or a goal, no matter what it was.

Additionally, the physical health benefits of a sense of purpose are well-documented. For example, a Harvard’s School of Public Health study found that people who report higher levels of purpose at one point in time have objectively better physical agility four years later than those who report less purpose.

Moreover, researchers suggest that people take better care of themselves when they feel like they have something to live for. Having a purpose also seems to be associated with lower stress levels, which contributes to better health and emotional well-being. And, according to Helen Keller, “True happiness… is not attained through self-gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.”

Additionally, people with a more “prosocial” purpose—one aimed at helping others—experienced greater personal growth, integrity, and health later in adulthood. This result was echoed by a 2019 study by Anne Colby and colleagues at Stanford University. They surveyed almost 1,200 Americans in their midlife about their well-being and what goals were important to them. The researchers found significantly better physical health and higher emotional well-being among people who were involved in pursuing beyond-the-self goals, compared to those who were pursuing other types of goals. In other words, engaging in prosocial goals had more positive impact on physical health and emotional well-being than engaging in non-prosocial goals.

A sense of purpose appears to suggest that humans “can cooperate and accomplish big things together”. Research suggests that team leaders can effectively boost the productivity, work experience and well-being of their team members by helping them connect to a task-related higher purpose. The 2013 Core Beliefs and Culture Survey revealed that 91 percent of respondents who believe that their company has a strong sense of purpose also say it has a history of strong financial performance.

“Everything in your life informs you what your purpose is. How do you know it’s your purpose? It feels like it’s the right space for you. It feels like ‘This is what I should be doing; this is where I feel most myself.” Oprah Winfrey

Purpose also helps both individuals and the species to survive and thrive. Purpose often grows from our connection to others, which is why a crisis of purpose is often a symptom of isolation. Once you find your path, you’ll almost certainly find others traveling along with you, hoping to reach the same destination—a community.

youtu.be/_7wnkUP-Q4E

According to research by Kendall Cotton Bronk, a professor of psychology in the Division of Behavioral & Social Sciences at Claremont Graduate University, finding one’s purpose requires four key components:

  1. Dedicated commitment,
  2. Personal meaningfulness,
  3. Goal directedness, and
  4. A vision larger than one’s self.

Often, finding our purpose involves a combination of finding meaning in the experiences we’ve had, while assessing our values, skills, and hopes for a better world. It means taking time for personal reflection while imagining our ideal future. “Everything in your life informs you what your purpose is. How do you know it’s your purpose? It feels like it’s the right space for you. It feels like ‘This is what I should be doing; this is where I feel most myself’,” says Oprah Winfrey

A sense of purpose as we navigate milestones and transitions means that we can look forward to more satisfying, meaningful and abundant lives.

“He who has a why to live can bear almost any how.” Nietzsche

References:

  1. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/topic/purpose/definition
  2. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/topic/purpose/definition#why-find-purpose
  3. https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/topic/purpose/definition#how-to-cultivate-purpose
  4. https://www.thegrowthreactor.com/quotes-about-purpose-in-life/

National Volunteer Week

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“There’s a saying, “Life and love aren’t about what you gain; they’re about what you give.” What a great way to sum up the purpose of volunteer work.” Canada Protection Plan

America is a country built on service. From our earliest days, Americans have stepped forward to help neighbors and tackle our toughest challenges.
This second week in April is National Volunteer Week. All Americans are encourage to pick their favorite foundation, museum or charity and spend a few hours or days giving back to the communities that have given us so much.

National Volunteer Week is an annual celebration observed in many countries, to promote and show appreciation for volunteerism and volunteering. In the United States, it is organized by the Points of Light foundation, and in Canada by Volunteering Canada. It is held in those two countries in mid to late April.

Last year’s Presidential National Volunteer Week Proclamation read:

“We are living in a moment that calls for hope and light and love. Hope for our futures, light to see our way forward, and love for one another. Volunteers provide all three.”

“Service—the act of looking out for one another—is part of who we are as a Nation. Our commitment to service reflects our understanding that we can best meet our challenges when we join together.”

“This week, we recognize the enduring contributions of our Nation’s volunteers and encourage more Americans to join their ranks.”

During National Volunteer Week, it’s important to show up for your communities, make service a goal, and make a difference.

“Give the gift of time and commit to serve.”

References:

  1. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/volunteer-week.html
  2. https://www.americorps.gov/blogs/2022-04-12/celebrate-nations-volunteers-all-week

Inflation Overtakes Labor Quality as Top Business Problem For Small Businesses

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“Inflation has now replaced “labor quality” as the number one problem.” National Federation of Independent Business

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March by 2.4 points to 93.2, the third consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of small business owners reported that “inflation was the single most important problem in their business, up five points from February and the highest reading since the first quarter of 1981”. Inflation has now replaced “labor quality” as the number one problem.

“Inflation has impacted small businesses throughout the country and is now their most important business problem,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “With inflation, an ongoing staffing shortage, and supply chain disruptions, small business owners remain pessimistic about their future business conditions.”

Key NFIB findings include:

  • Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased 14 points to a net negative 49%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year-old survey.
  • Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, a decrease of one point from February.
  • The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased four points to a net 72% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading in the survey’s history.
  • The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased four points to a net 72% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading recorded in the series.

The difficulty in filling open positions is particularly acute in the transportation, construction, and manufacturing sectors where many positions require skilled workers. Openings are lowest in the finance and agriculture sectors.

Eight percent of owners cited labor costs as their top business problem and 22% said that labor quality was their top business problem, now in second place following “inflation.”

Forty percent of owners report that supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business, up three points. Another 28% report a moderate impact and 23% report a mild impact. Only 8% report no impact from recent supply chain disruptions.

References:

  1. https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/inflation-overtakes-labor-quality-as-top-business-problem-for-small-businesses/ (Inflation Overtakes Labor Quality as Top Business Problem For Small Businesses)
  2. https://www.nfib.com/small-business-survival/

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is the voice of small business and advocates on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners. NFIB is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven.

Inflation Will Persist

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“Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it.” Capital Group

For the past 30 years, investors haven’t had to worry much about dealing with inflation, says Capital Group fixed income portfolio manager Ritchie Tuazon. That changed last summer when COVID-related distortions and excessive government stimulus caused prices for energy and most consumer goods to skyrocket.

Today, the biggest questions for long term investors are how high will inflation go and how long will it last?

Adding to the uncertainty is that there are two types of inflation, according to Tuazon:

  • Sticky inflation tends to have longer staying power. Sticky categories include rent, insurance and medical expenses.
  • Flexible inflation — affecting items such as food, energy and cars — has risen much faster in recent months but many believe it won’t last.

From Capital Group’s perspective, they expect high inflation might persist longer than expected and should move closer to its 2% historic goal by sometime in 2023.

Higher inflation levels should remain elevated through late 2022, fueled by labor shortages and broken supply chains. “Consumer prices will eventually return to normal, but that process may take longer than Fed officials are expecting,” says Tuazon.

The Fed is left to react to inflation, but not overreact. Start, but not go too fast. Tighten, but not in the “wrong” ways.

Regarding inflation impact, “the first question is whether inflation will cool off enough on its own to not threaten corporate earnings growth or hurt consumer spending”, states Liz Young, Head of SoFi Investment Strategy. “The second question is less about whether the Fed can control inflation expectations with policy moves and more about whether the market is going to think they’re making a mistake and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

References:

  1. https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFCPBR-086-652781.pdf

Don’t Fight the Fed

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“We continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease.” Dan Niles

“The markets are in a volatile and dangerous place as of now,” writes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund.

In his article entitled “Market Thoughts Following Q1”, Niles contends that investors heed the warning: “Don’t Fight the Fed”.

He states that “Investors are forgetting that it [Don’t Fight the Fed] works on the way down as well as the way up. The Federal Reserve (The Fed) expanded their balance sheet by $4.8 trillion since the start of the pandemic while the US government added ~$5.5 trillion in stimulus. Combined stimulus of roughly half of US GDP of $20.5 trillion is the major driver of why the prices of stocks (along with homes, cars, boats, crypto, art, NFTs, etc) all went up over the past two years during a global pandemic. Now, the Fed dot plot shows 10 rate hikes in less than two years and they will be cutting trillions off the balance sheet probably starting on May 4th along with a 50 bps rate hike.”

“The #1 concern for investors in 2022 should continue to be that the Fed is so far behind the curve on dealing with inflation that they will have to be much more aggressive than in prior tightening cycles despite high inflation & geopolitical risk.” Dan Niles

“We [Satori Fund] continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease. Since World War II,

  1. Every time Inflation (CPI) is over 5% a recession has occurred
  2. Every time oil prices have doubled relative to the prior 2-year average ($54 in this case) a recession has occurred
  3. 10 of the 13 prior recessions have been preceded by a tightening cycle by the Fed
  4. 10 of the last 13 recessions have been preceded by the 10-year yield going below the 2-year yield”

For retail investors, Niles recommends “cash until inflation, Fed tightening and economic slowing run their course over the next one to two years. He writes that “most of the time, cash is a terrible investment especially in a high inflationary environment, but it is better to lose 6-7% to inflation this year than 20%+ in a stock market drop. With the Fed being this far behind the curve on inflation, we will find out how much froth is in valuations as the Fed starts tightening as growth continues to slow.”

Satori Fund likes companies that

  1. Benefit from economic reopening (not pandemic beneficiaries);
  2. Are profitable with good cash flow;
  3. Have growth but at a reasonable price;
  4. Benefit from higher-than-average inflation;
  5. Benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds. 

They foresee investing tailwinds in:

  • Datacenter, office enterprise, and 5G infrastructure.
  • Reopening plays such as airlines, cruise lines, travel, rideshare, and dating services as people adjust to covid becoming endemic.
  • Banks which should benefit from higher interest rates.
  • Alternative energy as geopolitics and fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War drives investment in the space.

References:

  1. https://www.danniles.com/articles