Tag Archives: Investing

12 Timeless Rules of Investing

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Guidelines Every Investor Should Embrace, But Few Actually Do

An Investment U White Paper Report written by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Advisory Panelist, Investment U

In the the white paper report, Dr. Sjuggerud identified 12 classic investing rules that every investor can use throughout their lifetimes.

These guidelines are provided to help investors achieve their goals, sometimes in capitalizing on gains and sometimes in mitigating losses.

1. An attempt at making a quick buck often leads to losing much of that buck.

  • The people who suffer the worst losses are those who overreach.
  • If the investment sounds too good to be true, it is.
  • The best hot tip is “there is no such thing as a hot tip.”

2. Don’t let a small loss become large.

  • Don’t keep losing money just to “prove you are right.”
  • Never throw good money after bad (don’t buy more of a loser).
  • When all you’re left with is hope, get out.

3. Cut your losers; let your winners ride.

  • Avoid limited-upside, unlimited-downside investments.
  • Don’t fall in love with your investment; it won’t fall in love with you.

4. A rising tide raises all ships, and vice versa. So assess the tide, not the ships.

  • Fighting the prevailing “trend” is generally a recipe for disaster.
  • Stocks will fall more than you think and rise higher than you can imagine.
  • In the short run, values don’t matter. In the long run, valuations do matter.

5. When a stock hits a new high, it’s not time to sell something that is going right.

  • When a stock hits a new low, it’s not time to buy something that is going wrong.

6. Buy and hold doesn’t ALWAYS work.

  • If stocks don’t seem cheap, stand aside.

7. Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

8. If you don’t understand the investment, don’t buy it.

  • Don’t be wooed. Either make an effort to understand it or say “no thanks.”
  • You can’t know everything, so don’t stray far from what you know.

9. Buy value, and sell hysteria.

  • Paying less than the underlying asset’s value is a proven successful investing strategy.
  • Buying overvalued stocks has proven to under perform the market.
  • Neglected sectors often offer good values.
  • The “popular” sectors are often overvalued.

10. Investing in what’s popular never ends up making you any money.

  • Avoid popular stocks, fad industries and new ventures.
  • Buy an investment when it has few friends.

11. When it’s time to act, don’t hesitate.

  • Once you’re in, be patient and don’t be rattled by fluctuations.
  • Stick with your plan… but when you make a mistake, don’t hesitate.
  • Learn more from your bad moves than your good ones.

12. Expert investors care about risk; novice investors shop for returns.

  • If you focus on the risks, the returns will eventually come for you.
  • If you focus on the returns, the risks will eventually come for you.

Good investing.

References:

  1. https://investmentu.com/timelessrules/

Long-Term Investing

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“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson

Everyone is a long-term investor up to the moment the stock market correction or crash occurs. “During bull markets, everyone believes that he is committed to stocks for the long term,” opines Billionaire investor William J. Bernstein. “Unfortunately, history also tells us that during bear markets, you can hardly give stocks away. Most investors are simply not capable of withstanding the vicissitudes of an all-stock investment strategy.

Yet, successful investing is a long game. It takes “time, patience and discipline”, says Warren Buffett. When you put money to work in markets it’s best to set it and forget it. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett quipped, “Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a fly epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

Myopic Loss Aversion

Investors must manage the battle between fear and greed in their heads and stomachs to be successful in building wealth in the long term. Unfortunately, the fear of loss is generally a more powerful force that overwhelms many investors during periods of steep losses in stock prices.

Even though they don’t plan to liquidate the investment for decades, many investors panic during market corrections and bear markets; causing them to miss out on the often sharp recovery in prices that follows.

Being a long-term investor is more about inner attitude, about positive mindset and about behavior then the asset holding timeframe. Being a long-term investor requires a confidence based on clarity of purpose, rigorous research, and insightful analysis.

Long-term investors should invest in sustainable and growing companies – companies that are likely to be around and that are increasing their intrinsic value for the long term.

Behavior is an essential value of a long-term investor since behavior drives results. Thus, staying calm during a downturn is indeed a critical quality of any long-term investor,

For long-term investors, if you are clear about your investment principles, confident in your investment’s thesis, and genuinely believe in your investment strategy, a market downturn is the best time to invest in companies.

Overall, investing is all about focusing on your financial goals and ignoring the noise and mania of the markets and the financial media. That means buying and holding for the long term, regardless of any news that might move you to try and time the market. “There is only one way of investing, and that is long term,” says Vid Ponnapalli, a CFP and owner of Unique Financial Advisors and Tax Consultants in Holmdel, N.J.

Investor, Mohnish Pabrai, says it best, “You don’t make money when you buy stocks, and you don’t make money when you sell stocks. You make money by waiting.”

“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/tips-for-long-term-investing/
  2. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b18x07sykt3psy/What-Long-Term-Investor-Really-Means
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-shook/2022/05/10/an-investors-mind-6-ways-it-can-block-the-path-to-long-term-wealth/?sh=7ca749405f7c

Magic Formula

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“Believe it can be done. When you believe something can be done, really believe, your mind will find the ways to do it. Believing a solution paves the way to solution.” – David J. Schwartz

In “The Little Book That Beats the Market”, Joel Greenblatt, Founder and Managing Partner at Gotham Capital (average annualized returns of 40% for over 20 years), sets out the basic principles for successful stock market investing.

In his book, Greenblatt provides a “magic formula” that makes buying good companies at bargain prices process driven. It takes a bunch of stocks (Russell 3000) and ranks them on quality; takes the same bunch and ranks them on value. Add the two ranks and buy the stocks with the highest summed ranks. Hold them for a year or preferably longer.

The formula is based on two very solid pillars of value investing: Invest in companies with high returns, and make sure they’re selling at a large discount (margin of safety).

For his quality factor, Greenblatt chose return on capital, defined as EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) divided by the sum of working capital and fixed assets. For his value factor, Greenblatt chose EBIT divided by enterprise value.

“If you just stick to buying good companies (ones that have a high return on capital) and to buying those companies only at bargain prices (at prices that give you a high earnings yield), you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.”

“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you’re looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you’re still an idiot.”

“In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits.”

“Stock prices move around wildly over very short periods of time. This does not mean that the values of the underlying companies have changed very much during that same period. In effect, the stock market acts very much like a crazy guy named Mr. Market.”

“Although over the short term, Mr. Market may set stock prices based on emotion, over the long term, it is the value of the company that becomes most important to Mr. Market.”

“After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things: 1. If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and 2. That leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.”
― Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats the Market

“Over the short term, Mr. Market acts like a wildly emotional guy who can buy or sell stocks at depressed or inflated prices. Over the long run, it’s a completely different story: Mr. Market gets it right.”

“Although over the short term Mr. Market may price stocks based on emotion, over the long term Mr. Market prices stocks based on their value.”

Greenblatt’s three basic principles:

  1. Buy good companies;
  2. Buy them at bargain prices;
  3. Use ranking to pick stocks.

Financial commentator Gary Shilling likes to say, “The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”

T,hus, when looking for bargain prices, you need to look at a lot more things than earnings yield, and when looking for good businesses, you need to look at a lot more things than high return on capital.

You can’t judge a business as good or bad without looking at its stability, its growth prospects, and the quality of its earnings; and you can’t judge a business as a bargain without looking at a variety of valuation metrics.

References:

  1. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/73414-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/03/23/foolish-book-review-the-little-book-that-beats-the.aspx
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374333-how-market-beat-little-book-beats-market-stock-pickers-guide-to-joel-greenblatts-magic

Differences Between Price and Value

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“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Warren Buffett

“Don’t judge a company’s stock by its share price.” Many people incorrectly assume that a stock with a low dollar price is cheap, while another one with a four-digit dollar price is expensive. In fact, a stock’s price says little about that stock’s value. Moreover, it says nothing at all about whether that the market price of a company is headed higher or lower.

The most important distinction between the ‘market price you pay’ and the ‘intrinsic value you get’ is the fact that price is arbitrary and value is fundamental.

  • Price is the amount paid for the product or service.
  • Cost is the aggregate monetary value of the inputs used in the production of the goods or services.
  • Value of a product or service is the utility or worth of the product or service for an individual.

To effectively deploy this strategy, it’s essential to find a company that you understand, that has solid fundamentals — then be patient and wait until the company’s stock price falls below its intrinsic value before you purchase the company.

Regarding ‘understanding’ a company, it’s important for investors to know how a company makes its money–revenue, profits and free cash flow.

At some point, a stock’s market price over the long term adjusts to its intrinsic value. This fact is how successful investors such as Warren Buffet have used to make billions over the long term.

“Finding differences between price and value is by far the most effective investment strategy”, writes Phil Townes, founder of Rule One Investing . “Not recognizing differences between price and value is also what causes many investors to lose their shirts, as companies are just as often overpriced as they are underpriced.”

How do you find companies that are on sale for less than their true value is to evaluate companies using a set of standards that look beyond the company’s current price tag. Phil Town call these standards the four Ms:

  • Meaning,
  • Moat,
  • Management and
  • Margin of Safety

The first step is to make sure you understand the company and the company you invest in has meaning to you as an investor. If it does, you’ll understand it better, be more likely to research it and be more passionate about investing in it.

The second step is to choose a company that has a moat. This means that there is something inherent about the company that makes it difficult for competitors to step in and carve away part of their market share.

The third step is to look at the company’s management. Companies live and die by the people managing them, and if you are going to invest in a company, you need to make sure their management is talented and trustworthy.

Finally, calculate the company’s intrinsic value and determine a margin of safety. Margin of safety is the price at which you can buy shares of a company, being more likely that you won’t lose money and have increased confident that you will make a good return on your invested capital.

When the market price of a company is lower than the company’s intrinsic value number, the company is deemed underpriced and represents a great investment opportunity.

“Leveraging differences between price and value is as simple as that”, said Town. “Find a company that you believe in, that has solid fundamentals — then wait until their price falls below their value. If you do this, you can buy companies on sale, sell them for their true value and make a lot of money in the process.”

The goal is to identify stocks that are undervalued—that is, their market prices do not reflect their true intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/
  2. https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and-value.html
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/stock-prices-fool.asp

The overriding goal is to help individuals learn how to successfully invest in assets, to build long term wealth and achieve lifetime financial freedom. 

What is Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

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Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a performance ratio that aims to measure the percentage return that a company earns on invested capital.

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) ratio shows how efficiently a company is using the investors’ funds to generate net income. Investors use the ROIC ratio to compute and to understand the value of a company. It represents for investors how well a company has put its capital to work in order to generate profitable returns on behalf of its shareholders and debt lenders.

Fundamentally, ROIC answers the question:

  • “How much in returns is the company earning for each dollar invested?”

Return on Invested Capital is calculated by taking into account the cost of the investment and the returns generated.

  • Returns are all the earnings acquired after taxes but before interest is paid.
  • The value of an investment is calculated by subtracting all current long-term liabilities, those due within the year, from the company’s assets.

The cost of investment can either be the total amount of assets a company requires to run its business or the amount of financing from creditors or shareholders. The return is then divided by the cost of investment.

Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) is typically used in the numerator because it captures the recurring core operating profits and is an unlevered measure (i.e. unaffected by the capital structure).

Unlike net income, NOPAT is the operating profits post-taxes and thus represents what is available for all equity and debt providers.

  • Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): The numerator is net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), which measures the earnings of a company prior to financing costs.
  • Invested Capital: As for the denominator, the invested capital represents the sources of funding raised to grow the company and run the day-to-day operations.

Capital refers to debt and equity financing, which are the two common sources of funds for companies that are used to invest in cash flow generative assets and derive economic benefits.

A company can evaluate its growth by looking at its return on invested capital ratio. Any firm earning excess returns on investments totaling more than the cost of acquiring the capital is a value creator. Excess returns may be reinvested, thus securing future growth for the company. An investment whose returns are equal to or less than the cost of capital is a value destroyer. Generally speaking,

  • A company is considered to be a value creator if its ROIC is at least two percent more than the cost of capital;
  • A company is considered to be a value destroyer is if its ROIC is two percent less than its cost of capital.

There are some companies that run at zero returns, whose return percentage on the value of capital lies within the set estimation error, which in this case is 2%.

A higher return on invested capital can be considered an indication that a company is required to spend less to generate more profit.

  • Profitable Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC) → Positive Value Creation and Shareholder Returns

The higher the profit margins of the company, the higher the return on invested capital, as the company can convert more revenue (or NOPAT) into profits.

Companies that generate an ROIC above their cost of capital implies the management team can allocate capital efficiently and invest in profitable projects, which is a competitive advantage in itself.

When investors screen for potential investments, the minimum ROIC tends to be set between 10% and 15%, but this will be firm-specific and depend on the type of strategy employed.

ROIC is one method to determine whether or not a company has a defensible “economic moat”, which is the ability of a company to protect its profit margins and market share from new market entrants over the long run.

Warren Buffett

The overall objective of calculating ROIC is to better understand how efficiently a company has been utilizing its operating capital (i.e. deployment of capital).

Generally, the higher the return on invested capital (ROIC), the more likely the company is to achieve sustainable long-term value creation.

References:

  1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/what-is-roic/
  2. https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/roic-return-on-invested-capital/

Bonds Getting Clobbered

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“Bondholders are going to be in for some nasty surprises…because the losses are piling up.” CNBC’s Kelly Evans

A bond is a debt security, similar to an IOU. Borrowers issue bonds to raise money from investors willing to lend them money for a certain amount of time.

When you buy a bond, you are lending to the issuer, which may be a government, municipality, or corporation. In return, the issuer promises to pay you a specified rate of interest during the life of the bond and to repay the principal, also known as face value or par value of the bond, when it “matures,” or comes due after a set period of time.

Just as individuals get a mortgage to buy a house, or a car loan to buy a vehicle, or use credit cards, corporations use debt to build factories, buy inventory, and finance acquisitions. Governments use debt to build infrastructure and to pay obligations when tax revenues fluctuate. Loans help to keep the economy running efficiently.

Whenever the size of the loan is too large for a bank to handle, companies and governments go to the bond market to finance their debt. The purpose of the bond market is to enable large amounts of money to be borrowed.

Bonds can provide a means of preserving capital and earning a predictable return for investors. Bond investments provide steady streams of income from interest payments prior to maturity.

The bond market (also known as the debt market or credit market) is a financial market where players can buy and sell bonds in the secondary market or issue fresh debt in the primary market. Like the stock market, the bond secondary market is made up of investors trading with other investors. The original company that received the money and is responsible for paying back the money, is not involved in the day-to-day trading. The market value of bonds can fluctuate daily due to changes in inflation, interest rates, and fickleness of investors.

The United States accounts for around 39% of total bond market value. According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the bond market (total debt outstanding) was worth $119 trillion globally in 2021, and $46 trillion in the United States (SIFMA). The worldwide bond market is almost three times larger than the global stock market.

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 basball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” James Carville

The bond market is more important to the health of the U.S. and global economies than the stock market. And, you prefer for the bond market is not in the news, to be boring and functioning smoothly. Disruption in the bond market is what can get the economy in trouble.

As with any investment, bonds have risks which include:

  • Interest rate risk. Interest rate changes can affect a bond’s value. If bonds are sold before maturity, the bond may be worth more or less than the face value. Rising interest rates will make newly issued bonds more appealing to investors because the newer bonds will have a higher rate of interest than older ones. To sell an older bond with a lower interest rate, you might have to sell it at a discount.
  • Inflation risk. Inflation is a general upward movement in prices. Inflation reduces purchasing power, which is a risk for investors receiving a fixed rate of interest.

In aggregate, bond values are down significantly over the past three months–one of the worst quarters the securities have experienced since the 1980s, explains CNBC’s Kelly Evans. According to Natalliance, “government bonds are on pace for their worst year since 1949.”

Famed former Legg-Mason investor Bill Miller warned several years ago that “when people realize they can actually lose money in bonds, they panic”. Going into the inflationary 1970s, he said, “investors had done so well in bonds for so long they viewed them as essentially riskless, until it was too late.”
Investors have been warned for years about a bond crash that never panned out until recently. The chorus of financial pundits have said that the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing and the federal government’s fiscal response to the financial crisis would ultimately cause inflation and crater bonds, it turns out they were right.

As a result, investors are piling out of bonds, which have seen outflows for ten straight weeks. Municipal bonds have seen historic outflows and are about to post their worst quarter since 1994, down more than 5%, according to Bloomberg. Investors have also been fleeing high-yield debt, especially as the Fed has turned increasingly hawkish this month.

You won’t find many financial professionals, other than fixed-income specialists, recommending big exposure to bonds right now. The outlook is just too uncertain.

“Bonds have nowhere to go but down since [interest] rates have nowhere to go but up.” Liz Young, SoFi Chief Investment Officer

Bonds are not expected to rally or perform better if growth slows, unless there is a meaningful dent in the outlook for inflation, and it would take a very deep and lengthy downturn to do so, as economists and financial pundits have warned.

Bonds have sold off and they haven’t served as downside protection within an investor’s diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Year-to-date, bonds have returned -8.7% YTD on 7-10-year Treasury bonds compared to a -6.0% YTD return in the S&P 500.

When bonds are in the red and cash is losing value because of inflation, investors turn to the stock market, at least tactically.

In this environment, “real assets” like real estate and commodities have done extremely well tend to do well in a tough investment environment for the long run (gold, metals, energy — along with globally diversified real estate).

As for stocks, Bill Smead, of Smead Capital Management, likes energy and housing market plays; noted investor Bill Miller likes energy, financials, housing stocks, travel-related names, and even some Chinese stocks (he’s also still bullish on mega-cap tech like Amazon and Meta).

The S&P 500 overall has been impressively resilient thus far, hanging in there with drop of less than 5% since the start of January–less than bonds, in other words. As bond losses deepen, don’t be surprised to see the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) dynamic continue to bolster stocks.

However, there are several good reasons for purchasing bonds and including them in your portfolio:

  • Bonds are a generally safe investment, which is one of their advantages. Bond prices do not move nearly as much as stock prices.
  • Bonds provide a consistent income stream by paying you a defined sum of interest twice a year.
  • Bonds provide diversification to your portfolio, which is perhaps the most important benefit of investing in them. Stocks have outperformed bonds throughout time, but having a mix of both can lower your financial risk.

References:

  1. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/bonds-or-fixed-income-products/bonds
  2. https://www.themoneyfarm.org/investment/bonds/why-is-there-a-market-for-bonds/
  3. https://www.sofi.com/blog/liz-looks-stocks-vs-bonds/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/kelly-evans-its-getting-ugly-out-there-for-bonds.html
  5. https://archerbaycapital.com/bond-market-more-important-to-economy/

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining market equity values.

Investing Involves Decision Making

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Investing involves decision-making. But not making those investing decisions can be a more costly move in itself.

Choosing to invest your money in the stock market is like picking your first tattoo. The stakes are high and all the available options can seem overwhelming to your senses. Thankfully, there is an an abundant amount of good financial services, resources and advice available to help you avoid making a mistake mistake and to get you started.

There is truly no time like the present to start investing. Because the sooner you start, the more time your money has to grow and the more potential you have to earn, because of the power of compound interest. This is when your money earns money on itself and grows exponentially.

But, growth isn’t always guaranteed. Investing means taking in a certain amount of risk since the market moves in cycles. Although investing comes with some risk, it doesn’t have to feel like a high-stakes gamble.

Rest assured, historically, stocks have bounced back from every downturn in history. And, then continued to climb. Investing consistently overtime can make it easier to ride out the market volatility, the ups and downs.

The first step is determining what you want your future to look like financially in retirement. Retirement is probably your most important and expensive goal, and a good place to start.

It’s important to build a portfolio based on your time horizon, how you want to invest, how comfortable you’re with risk and what you plan to use your investment earnings are for. But, you must get started.

Ready, set, go(als).

Investing could help you owe the IRS less during tax time. For example, you have until the tax filing deadline each year to open and fund an IRA, which could help you claim an extra deduction.

Harvesting losses in your brokerage account could help you reduce your capital gains taxes for the year.

If you want more control over your investment portfolio, self-directed investing is the way to go. Self-directed investing is for people at all experience levels.

However, if you prefer a hands-off approach, financial advisors or automated robo-advisors can help you capture your financial goals and tailor an investment portfolio to achieve your financial goals, complete with regular rebalancing.

But, before you jump headfirst into investing your money, it’s wise to assess your present financial status first (your cash flow and net worth) and make sure you’ve got a solid savings foundation to build on.

Finding a balance between saving your money and building wealth through investing for your future is not rocket science. It is simple to build savings and help take the fear and uncertainty out of investing.

References:

  1. https://taskandpurpose.com/from-our-partners/set-your-future-up-for-success-save-and-invest/
  2. https://www.brighthousefinancial.com/education/retirement-planning/covering-everyday-expenses-in-retirement/

Staying Invested Matters

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Investors are more likely to reach their long-term goals if they remain invested and avoid short-term decisions that may take them off course.

Staying the course during market volatility is often difficult for many investors. Some choose to move to cash investments, while others try to time the market. Regrettably, these investors are often buying high and selling low—and miss the rallies that follow the challenging periods.

Yet, staying invested through market ups and downs can help you stay on track to reach your investment goals.

Once you’ve determined how much you want to invest, setting up automatic transfers to your investment account or periodic investments can help you stay on track.

For example, investors often make suboptimal investing decisions when emotions take over, tending to buy out of excitement when the market is going up and sell out of fear when the market is falling. Markets do ultimately normalize, and when they do, those who stay invested may benefit more than those who don’t.  Consider this:

  • By missing some of the market’s best days, investors can lose out on critical opportunities to grow their portfolio. Market timing can have devastating results.
  • Seven of the best 10 days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
  • The second worst day for the markets during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, March 12, 2020, was immediately followed by the second best day of the year.

Trying to time the bottom is never considered a sound strategy for long-term investing.

Staying invested during periods of heighten market volatility is an important strategy as, historically, six of the ten best days in the market occur within two weeks of the ten worst days; those who miss the best days miss out on performance.

Thus, the decision to stay invested during market turmoil is often better than timing
when to sell and buy.

References:

  1. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/principles-for-investing/
  2. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/the-benefits-of-staying-invested/

Power of Dividends

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A dividend is a share of profits and retained earnings that a company pays out to its shareholders. When a company generates a profit and accumulates retained earnings, those earnings can be either reinvested in the business or paid out to shareholders as a dividend.

Dividends can create a rising source of income for a lifetime. They have proven to grow at twice the rate of inflation over the better part of stock market history.

Dividends are one of three ways for a company to return value of their profits and a portion of its free cash flow to shareholders. The other two ways are for a company to buy back its shares and to re-invest in the company.

  • A share buyback is when a company uses cash on the balance sheet to repurchase shares in the open market. This has two effects.
      • It returns cash to shareholders
      It reduces the number of shares outstanding.

    As a company increase the dividend on a annual basis, the amount may be small, but over time, it can become significant.

    For example, if you own stock in a company that pays a dividend of 57 cents per share, they may announce a dividend increase of 4 cents to 61 cents. That means you get and extra 4 cents for each share you own.

    Although, it’s only 4 cents, but 4 cents on 57 cents is am7% dividend increase on each share you own. If the dividend increased by this amount, 4 cents, every year, the dividend would double in about 10 years. Thus, over time, if you stick with dividends, the money will begin to grow.

    In S&P 500 Index companies alone paid out $485 billion in dividends to shareholders.

    Dividends outpace inflation

    Back in 1980, a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index paid a dividend of about $421, or 4.21%, on the initial investment. Forty years later, the dividend income had climbed to $5,724, a 57% annual yield on the original investment. And, the original $10K investment grew as well. The original $10K invested in the S&P 500 Index in 1980 would have grown into more than $287K as the stock price increased. That’s not counting the dividends paid.

    The price-only-return (which excludes dividends income) is 8.75% per year. If you add in another 3% for the dividends you receive each year, you get a total average return of about 11.75% per year.

    Dividends have proven to be a more consistent source of growing income that has outpaced inflation.

    Dividends and Total Return over that 40 year period,

    Total return is one of the most important concepts in finance, and it involves more than just the dividends a company pays out.

    The total return of a stock is the total amount your investment changes in value, calculated by adding the amount of dividend or interest income received to the investment’s capital return (i.e. change in the investment’s price).

    Total return is driven by three components: earnings growth (which fuels capital gains and the underlying intrinsic value of a stock), dividends, and changes in valuation multiples.

    Dividends have been a major component of the stock market’s overall total returns throughout history and have contributed anywhere from 25% to 75% of the market’s overall total return over the past seven decades (the remaining portion of total return is accounted for by capital gains, or the market’s change in price).

    Takeaway, dividends are a powerful wealth building tool. If you invest in perennial dividend payers and consistent dividend grower companies, and then be patient, the dividends will add up significantly over decades.

    References:

    1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/dividend/
    2. https://www.wesmoss.com/news/the-power-of-investing-in-dividends-generating-income-from-stock-dividends-vs-bond-interest/
    3. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/paying-back-your-shareholders
    4. https://1.simplysafedividends.com/dividends-vs-total-returns/

    Inflation…the Enemy of Savers

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    Inflation is the enemy of those who save.

    For most of the 21st century, savers and investors have experienced a favorable period of relative low inflation stock market growth. In fact, the average annual inflation rate from 2000 through 2021 was 2.31%. Even with that “low” inflation rate, the proverbial uninvested dollar hidden under one’s mattress in the year 2000 would be worth a mere $0.62 today.

    With inflation approaching 7% in late 2021, we’re on the precipice of witnessing the rapid erosion in the value of the dollar which will create substantial risk for ordinary savers and ultra conservative investors. Keeping your money in a savings account, money market or CDs is failing to protect it from inflation.

    Instead, the best place to invest is in the economy. While large sums of money are generally required to purchase real estate or a small business, the stock market allows those with limited capital a means to invest regularly in a wide variety of businesses and benefit from the strength of the economy.

    The equity markets have a history of robust returns over the long run. Over the last one hundred years, the average annual stock market return is 10%. That means investors who stay invested are nearly doubling their investments every seven years.

    Some individuals view the stock market as too risky and they literally view investing in the market as “gambling”. But, when you choose to use less “risky” investments like bonds rather than investing in stocks, the results vary great.

    A study by NYU’s Stern School of Business gives insights into historical returns provided by an investment in U.S. Treasury bonds as opposed to corporate bonds and the S&P 500.

    Assume an investor received a $300 inheritance on the day he was born. On that date, his parents invested $100 (the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $1,630 today) in several asset classes in 1928.

    As of September of 2021, the above investor would have $8,920.90 in U.S. Treasury bonds, $53,736.50 from corporate bonds, and $592,868 in returns from an index fund that tracked the S&P 500.

    Obviously, the stock market beats “safe” investments. While bonds might play an important role in a balanced portfolio, a 100% bond portfolio will fail to achieve the investment goals for most.

    Investing a little now is better than a lot later

    “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” – Albert Einstein

    A strong argument can be made that the amount of time one is in the market is of more importance than the sum invested in stocks.

    Consistently timing the market is impossible. There literally is no human being who can claim that he or she has been successful at that task with any degree of honesty. However, timing the market is not only unachievable, attempting to time the market can lead to poor investment returns.

    Over time, this would result in an ever-falling income stream. You spent your life buying stocks because they are a great source of return, that doesn’t stop just because you retire! The market is still the best source of future returns, you should be continuing to buy more, not sell!

    If one largely invests in stocks with yields of 5% or more, you can receive a substantial annual income without cannibalizing your portfolio. Furthermore, if the average annual market return is 10%, a stock that yields in the high single digits does not need to appreciate markedly to provide market-beating returns.

    Higher yield stocks outperform more often. They distribute cash on a recurring basis, whether share prices are up or down. Prices are volatile, and at the whims of emotional investors, dividends are the profit generated by the business and distributed to shareholders.

    Any investor with an employer with matching contributions should take full advantage of that opportunity. Any investor with an employer with matching contributions should take full advantage of that opportunity.

    By investing in dividend-bearing stocks and resisting the temptation to time the markets, you can be well on your way to building wealth and achieving financial freedom.

    References:

    1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484316-retirement-what-novice-investors-must-know