Value Investing: The 4 Ms of Investing

“The one and only secret to stockpiling is to make sure the value of the business is substantially greater than the price you are paying for it. If you get this right, you cannot help but get rich.” ~ Phil Town

Value investing is a strategy that focuses on investing in individual assets, but not just any asset, assets in wonderful companies or real estate that are priced well below their value, explains Phil Town, founder and CEO of Rule 1 Investing.

Value investing aims to reduce risk by increasing understanding of what you’re investing in order to make wiser investment decisions, and purchasing it at a price that gives you a margin of safety.

  • Value investing is a focused, disciplined and patient strategy, it’s a buy-and-hold for the long-term strategy. You need to be disciplined, patient and keep your focus on long-term profits.
  • It’s about making investing decisions based on the intrinsic value of a company, or what it’s actually worth, which is not to be confused with its sticker or market price.
  • A key component of value investing is buying stocks at the right time, and the right time will present itself if you remain focused, disciplined and patient.
  • The value investor isn’t swayed by the general public’s reaction or market fear. Fear can make people sell too early or miss an excellent opportunity to buy. But, the value investor decides when to buy or sell based on a wonderful company’s intrinsic value, not based on the prevailing fear or greed in the stock market.

Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

Value investors focuses on finding companies that were both undervalued and are what you might call “wonderful companies” with a high potential for growth. Thus, it wasn’t enough for a company to just be undervalued. Instead, the best companies to invest in were ones that were both undervalued and wonderful companies.

To spot undervalued companies, it’s also important to ensure that the companies you are investing in are high-quality and can retain their value throughout the time that you are holding them. Phil Town likes to evaluate whether or not a business is a quality company with what he calls the 4 Ms of Investing: Meaning, Management, Moat, and Margin of Safety.

If you can check off each of these 4 Ms for a company you are considering investing in, it will be well worth your while.

Meaning

The company should have meaning to you. This is important because if it has meaning to you, you understand what it does and how it works and makes money, and will be more likely to do the research necessary to understand all elements of the business that affect its value.

Management

The company needs to have solid management. Perform a background check on the leaders in charge of guiding the company, paying close attention to the integrity and success of their prior decisions to determine if they are good, solid leaders that will take the company in the right direction.

Moat

The company should have a moat. A moat is something that separates them from the competition and, thus, protects them. If a company has patented technology, control over the market, an impenetrable brand, or a product or service customers would never switch from, it has a moat.

Margin of Safety

In order to guarantee good returns, you must buy a company at a price that gives you a margin of safety. For Rule #1 investors, 50% is the margin of safety to look for, explains Town. This provides a buffer that makes it possible to still experience gains even if problems arise. This is arguably the most important.

These 4Ms draw heavily from the rules of value investing. Both sets of rules dictate that you must buy a company below its actual value in order to make a profit. That’s the bottom line.

Even if a company is in a great position today, it needs to have future potential to triple or 10x your investment. The market cap is a reflection of what you would pay today to own a piece of the company. But the market price is not the true value of the company.

You, as a value investor, should rely on the “intrinsic value” to determine whether a company is a worthy value investment. Then, you can use the market cap to help you determine if the company is on sale and if it has the growth potential.


References:

  1. https://wp.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/value-investing/
  2. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/financial-control/market-capitalization/

Phil Town is an investment advisor, hedge fund manager, and 3x NY Times Best-Selling Author. Phil’s goal is to help you learn how to invest and achieve financial independence.

Wealth is what you don’t see

“Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.” ~ Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money

The definition of wealth, in its simplest form, is the total value of assets that are owned by an individual. Wealth is also defined as a person’s Net Worth. This is calculated by adding up all the assets and subtracting all the liabilities.

Wealth means different things to different people. The first and most obvious definition of wealth is owning appreciable and income producing assets. On the other hand, wealth can mean to some people the ability to travel wherever you want, and to do things on your own schedule. But chances are, everybody has a completely different definition of wealth.

Wealth is what you don’t see.

Being wealthy means that you have assets that generate you income as well as a store of wealth. A wealthy person is typically invested in real estate, the stock market, and might own a business or two. These individuals have assets that can be passed down generation to generation and don’t waste time keeping up with the Joneses. They focus on amassing assets and wealth.

“Wealth is the nice cars not purchased. The diamonds not bought. The watches not worn, the clothes forgone and the first-class upgrade declined. Wealth is financial assets that haven’t yet been converted into the stuff you see,” explains Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money.

“That’s not how we think about wealth, because you can’t contextualize what you can’t see.

When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they might actually mean is ‘I’d like to spend a million dollars.’ And that is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.”

Wealth defined

In their groundbreaking book, The Millionaire Next Door, authors Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D, and William D. Danko, Ph.D, do not define wealthy, affluent, or rich in terms of material possessions. They opined that many people who display a high-consumption lifestyle have little or no investments, appreciable assets, income-producing assets, common stocks, bonds, private businesses, oil/gas rights, or timber land.

Conversely, those people whom they define as being wealthy get much more pleasure from owning substantial amounts of appreciable assets than from displaying a high-consumption lifestyle.

Bottomline, the most important parts of wealth and personal finance are how you behave with it and your related habits.

Wealth gives you freedom

Wealth give you time to do what you want and give you Freedom. When you are wealthy, you don’t have to sell hours of your day working. You can instead choose to spend your day doing the things you love and enjoy it.

And, freedom is defined as “the power or right to act, speak, or think as one wants without hindrance or restraint.” When you have wealth, you have the freedom to do things that you have always wanted to do, with minimal hindrances.


References:

  1. https://retirementfieldguide.com/wealth-is-what-you-dont-see/
  2. https://themillionairenextdoor.com/publications/the-millionaire-next-door/
  3. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/definition-of-wealth-what-does-being-wealthy-mean/ar-AAWpqRq

Discipline and Patience are two great personal superpowers.

Best Investing and Trading Advice

  1. “History repeats because of the weakness of human nature. The greed for quick fortunes has cost the public countless millions of dollars. Every experienced stock trader knows that overtrading is his greatest weakness, but he continues to allow this weakness to be his ruin. There must be a cure for this greatest weakness in trading, and that cure is STOP LOSS ORDERS. The weakest point must be overcome and the stop loss order is the cure for overtrading.” ~ WD Gann
  2. The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.” ~ Philip Fisher
  3. “Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.” ~ Michael Covel
  4. “I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.” ~ Richard Dennis
  5. “Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they are playing against the market, but the market doesn´t care. You’re really playing against yourself.” ~ Martin Schwarz
  6. “Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.” ~ Seth Klarman


References:

  1. https://www.t3live.com/blog/2017/12/01/best-trading-investing-quotes/

How to Invest for Beginners: Peter Lynch

Investing can be for anybody, but is certainly not for everybody.

Only a handful of professional investors can compare to the legendary Peter Lynch. He rose to investing stardom in 1977 when he was appointed the fund manager of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund.

When Lynch took over, the fund had around $18 million in assets under management. After 13 years at the helm, Lynch increased the fund’s size by almost a thousand-fold.

In 1990, the Magellan Fund, and its over $14 billion in assets under management, became the biggest mutual fund in the world. At times, the fund held over 1,000 different stocks in its portfolio. Also, there was a period when it had an average annual return of 29.9%.

It doesn’t matter if you don’t know anything about investing, since there are actions a beginning investor can take to learn how to invest and how to manage their money and finances. One of the most important actions for new investors is to get started early.

Investing doesn’t have to be hard. Yet, it’s important to learn the basics of investing and what type of investments are the best depending on your financial situation and the amount of money you want to make. 

When you make it a point to save money, you are protecting yourself against life’s unforeseen difficulties. And when you invest, if you choose to do so, you will have a chance to earn much more than you would have expected to, growing your money exponentially.

Time Period

Long-term investing is one of the key concepts in Lynch’s and many of the most successful investor’s investment philosophy. Lynch argued that the value of stocks was rather easy to predict over a 10 to 20-year period, while short term predictions were pretty much useless and effectively impossible to make accurately due to market volatility.

Source: Brian Feroldi

Therefore, he strongly urged investors to always select stocks of companies that they understand, believe in and be patient to wait for them to go up over a long period of time rather than selling for profits.

According to research, if you invest a $1,000 every year on the highest day for a period of 30 years, you can expect a 10.6% annualized return. On the other hand, if you invest the same sum on the lowest day of the year, you can expect an 11.7% compounded return over the same period.

Peter Lynch also encouraged the reader to look for the tenbagger stocks.

A tenbagger is a stock that rises in value 10-fold or 1,000%. He advises against selling when the stock goes up 40% or even 100%. Instead, he urges investors to hold onto them for the long-term, despite the common trend of many investors to take profits by selling appreciated stocks.


References:

  1. https://finmasters.com/one-up-on-wall-street-review/
  2. https://www.benzinga.com/money/peter-lynch-books

Index Fund and Stock Investing

“I’m extremely sceptical that anyone can do stockpicking well. The evidence is clear that simple low-cost index funds have outperformed 90 per cent actively managed funds over 10 years. A precious few stockpickers do outperform but there is no way to know in advance who they might be.” ~ Dr. Burton Malkiel

Burton Malkiel’s mission has been a multi-decades long advocate of index-based investing. In his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, published in 1973, he championed the premise that short run changes in stock market prices are unpredictable and that trying to beat the market is a fool’s game

Currently, index-tracking strategies account for about 40 per cent of U.S. mutual fund assets. Mr Malkiel’s advice is to ignore swings in short-term sentiment and to follow the ideas that he has supported over half a century–invest in low cost index funds. “What you shouldn’t do is panic and sell out. It is invariably a mistake, contends Malkiel. “Rather than trying to find undervalued US stocks, maybe the best solution would be to buy and hold an index comprising all the securities available for investment globally.”

Invest in index-funds (low cost), and get international exposure. The US is only one third of the world economy, and other areas are growing quickly.

Investors cannot consistently beat the market or achieve outsized returns, so invest in low-cost, tax-efficient, broad-based index funds. Not only is it simple, but it’s likely to give you the best outcome as an individual investor.

Rules to stock investing

  1. Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings and cash flow growth for at least five years. Growth increases, earnings, dividends, and likely the multiple the market will pay for those earnings.
  2. Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably justified by a company’s intrinsic value. Not a perfect measure, but look at how stock trades relative to earnings and cash flow growth potential. Avoid stocks with many years of high growth priced in.
  3. It helps to buy stocks with the anticipated growth. Try to be where other investors will be a few months from now. Look for companies that have strong balance sheet and strong financial growth.
  4. Trade as little as possible. Ride the winners and sell the losers. Sell before end of each calendar year any stocks on which you have a loss. Don’t have patience for losing stocks whose fundamentals have changed. Losses can help less tax burden through tax loss harvesting.

According to Dr. Malkiel, you aren’t likely to win even with these sensible rules. That said, those with a penchant for investing in individual stocks of companies, may still enjoy the game and not want to give it up.


References:

  1. https://www.ft.com/content/c67c06ba-b19c-3341-9665-eb985e3f8d02
  2. https://calvinrosser.com/notes/random-walk-down-wall-street-burton-malkiel/

Dr. Burton Gordon Malkiel, Ph.D, the Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics at Princeton University, is responsible for a revolution in the field of investment management. His book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, first published in 1973, used new research on asset returns and the performance of asset managers to recommend that all investors use passively managed “index” funds as the core of their investment portfolios.

Peter Lynch’s five rules to investing

“If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the car pool or on the commuter train—and succumbing to the social pressure, often buys.” Peter Lynch

Legendary American investor Peter Lynch shared five rules everyone can follow when investing in the stock market.

Within his 13-year tenure, Lynch drove the Fidelity Magellan Fund to a 2,800% gain – averaging a 29.2% annual return. It is the best 20-year return of any mutual fund in history. He is considered the greatest money manager of all time, and he beat the market for so long through buying the right stocks.

No one can promise you Lynch’s record, but you can learn a lot from him, and you don’t need a billion-dollar portfolio to follow his rules.

Lynch’s five rules for any investor in the stock market are listed below.

1. Know what you own

The most important rule for Lynch is that investors should know and understand the company they own.

“I’m amazed at how many people that own stocks can’t tell you, in a minute or less, why they own that particular stock,” said Lynch.

Investors need to understand the company’s operations and what they offer well enough to explain it to a 10-year-old in two minutes or less. If you can’t, you will never make money.

Lynch believes that If the company is too complicated to understand and how it adds value, then don’t buy it. “I made 10 to 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts because I could understand it,” he said.

2. Don’t invest purely on other’s opinions

People do research in all aspects of their lives, but for some reason, they fail to do the same when deciding on what stock to buy.

People research the best car to buy, look at reviews and compare specs when buying electronics, and get travel guides when travelling to new places – But they don’t do the same due diligence when buying a stock.

“So many investors get a tip on a stock travelling on the bus, and they’ll put half of their life savings in it before sunset, and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market,” Lynch said.

He added that investors should never just buy a stock because someone says it is a great buy. Do your research.

3. Focus on the company behind the stock

There is a method to the stock market, and the company behind the stock will determine where that stock goes.

“Stocks aren’t lottery tickets, there’s no luck involved. There’s a company behind every stock; if a company does well, the stock will do well – It’s not complicated,” Lynch said.

He advises that investors look at companies that have good growth prospects and is trading at a reasonable price using financial data such as:

• Balance Sheet – No story is complete without a balance sheet check. The balance sheet will tell you about the company’s financial structure, how much debt and cash it has, and how much equity its shareholders have. A company with a lot of cash is great, as it can buy more stock, make acquisitions or pay off its debt.

  • Year-by-year earnings growth
  • Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) – relative to historical and industry averages.
  • Debt-equity ratio
  • Dividends and payout ratios
  • Price-to-free cash flow ratio
  • Return on invested capital

4. Don’t try to predict the market

Trying to time the market is a losing battle. One thing to keep in mind is that you aren’t going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business long-term, even if the share price decreases slightly after you buy.

Instead of trying to time the bottom and throwing all your money in at once, a better strategy is gradually building your stock positions over time.

This approach spreads out your investments and allows you to buy into the market at different times at varying prices that ideally balance each other out versus investing one lump sum all at once.

This way, if you’re wrong and the stock continues to fall, you’ll be able to take advantage of the new lower prices without missing out.

“Trying to time or predict the stock market is a total waste of time because no one can do it,” Lynch said.

Corollary: Buy with a Margin of Safety: No matter how careful an investor is in valuing a company, she can never eliminate the risk of being wrong. Margin of Safety is a tool for minimizing the odds of error in an investor’s favor. Margin of Safety means never overpaying for a stock, however attractive the investment opportunity may seem. It means purchasing a company at a market price 30% or more below its intrinsic value.

5. Market crashes are great opportunities

Knowing the stock market’s history is a must if you want to be successful.

What you learn from history is that the market goes down, and it goes down a lot. In 93 years, the market has had 50 declines; once every two years, the market declines by 10%. of those 50 declines, 15 have declined by 25% or more – otherwise known as a bear market – roughly every six years.

“All you need to know is that the market is going to go down sometimes, and it’s good when it happens,” Lynch said.

“For example, if you like a stock at $14 and it drops to $6 per share, that’s great. If you understand a company, look at its balance sheet, and it’s doing well, and you’re hoping to get to $22 a share with it, $14 to $22 is terrific, but $6 to $22 is exceptional,” he added.

Declines in the stock market will always happen, and you can take advantage of them if you understand the company and know what you own.


References:

  1. https://dailyinvestor.com/finance/1921/peter-lynchs-five-rules-to-investing/

Warren Buffett Investing Lessons

“Most people get interested in stocks [or assets like Bitcoin] when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” – Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire-Hathaway, the Oracle of Omaha, has been the most successful investor of the 20th Century and is considered by many to be one of the greatest investors of all time.. His investment track record is simply remarkable with compounded annual returns over 20% over the last 55 plus years.

Essentially, if you had invested $10,000 USD in his investment firm Berkshire-Hathaway in 1965, that $10,000 USD would today be worth over $280 million US dollars.

What follows are several investing lessons all investors can learn from Buffett:

Investing Lesson 1: Risk Comes From Not Knowing What You are Doing

Many first-time investors have started trading in stocks and cryptocurrency without really understanding how these asset classes work. Buffett has advised investors to not chase everything that is new and shiny, and instead to only focus on the opportunities that they painstakingly researched and understand.

Stick to your circle of competence. Try not to be good at all things, and instead try to be great at one thing and give it all you`ve got. It`s better to be known for one thing than nothing.

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” Warren Buffett.

Investing Lesson 2: System Overpowers the Smart

Buffett advises that retail investors use a low-cost index fund. Investing via index funds gives you the advantage of a system, it allows for a disciplined investing cycle via SIPs and keeps emotions away from corrupting that framework. In other words, Buffett wants retail investors to follow a system over everything else.

And the system and a clear investing framework finding great business at good reasonable prices that have powered Berkshire Hathaway for the last five decades.

Change the way you see setbacks. You will make mistakes, probably lots of them, as long as you choose to swing for the fences. Buffett believes you can do well if you program your mind to see opportunities in every setback.

“A low-cost index fund is the most sensible equity investment for the great majority of investors.” Warren Buffett.

Investing Lesson 3: Have an Owner’s Mindset

Buying a stock is effectively buying a business and investors should follow the same kind of rigorous analysis and due diligence as one would do when buying a business.

The lesson here is that instead of getting too caught up in the recent movement of the stock price, you should spend more time analyzing the business fundamentals behind the stock price.

You can only genuinely value a business if you can accurately predict future cash flows. This is impossible without an understanding of the company’s operating environment and fundamentals.

And once you have answers to the pertinent questions, invest in a business that you would like to own for the next 10 to 20 years.

On how to invest in stocks. His response is a simple five-word answer: “Invest in the long term.”

“That whole idea that you own a business you know is vital to the investment process.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 4: Be Fearful When Others are Greedy and Be Greedy When Others are Fearful

The stock markets work in cycles of greed and fear. When there is greed, people are ready to pay more than what a business is worth. But when fear sets in, then great businesses are available at huge discounts for anyone who is ready to keep their gloomy emotions aside.

In Berkshire’s 2018 shareholder letter, Buffett wrote, “Seizing opportunities does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta. What investors need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period — or even to look foolish — is also essential.”

In other words, Buffett encourages investors to not follow the herd. And strip away emotions when making investment decisions, which is likely to open up more profitable opportunities.

“What investors need is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 5: Save and Preserve Capital for A Golden Rainy Day

Warren Buffett goes by the philosophy – hold onto your money when money is cheap and spend aggressively when money is expensive.

Financial expert criticized Buffett for holding onto billions of dollars in cash and not deploying it in stocks. But Buffett was saving all that cash to be used when companies come down from the then astronomical valuations to more reasonable prices.

“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies and they will briefly rain gold. When a downpour of that sort occurs. It is imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs and not teaspoons.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 6: Never Invest Just Because a Company is Cheap

A cheap business may be cheap for a very good reason, but may not be a profitable or favorable investment.

His investing approach is to look at a business’s competitive advantage, intangibles like brand value, cost superiority and its strong growth prospects.

This goes hand-in-hand with his Buffett’s first rule of investing is “don’t lose money.” His second rule is “never forget rule number one.” In short, investors should try to avoid significant losses at all costs, but avoiding all losses is impossible.

“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price,” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 7: Time is The Friend of The Wonderful Business

Patience and time are important in investing and has investors can reap the benefits of compounding.

Additionally, “cash is king” and investors must avoid debt at all costs. Buffett has always had a strong net cash position. Cash gives optionality and means you’re unlikely to have to make hard decisions when the market becomes volatile and eventually turns.

Considering volatility, Buffett said, “There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions are not immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.”

Buffett is not a fan of the kind of debt that can leave consumers broke and helpless, especially when the markets go down.

“It is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need,” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 9: Keep It Simple

An element of simplicity is important. Buffett himself follows a simple to understand investing framework, which can best be defined as buying stakes in a business where the price you pay is far lower than the value you derive. He wants investors to invest in simple and understandable instruments only and using a process that one can easily digest.

For example, if you don’t understand cryptocurrency, don’t invest, trade, or speculate in Bitcoins or glamorous-looking investment vehicles we are exposed to every year.

“If you are uncomfortable with the asset class that you have picked, then chances are you will panic when others panic,” Warren Buffett

Finally, treat your body and mind like the only car you could have. If someone offered you the most expensive car in the world with a single condition that you never get another one, how will you treat this car?

With this analogy in mind, Buffett urges you to treat your body and mind the same way you treat your one, and only car. If you don’t take care of your mind and body now, by the time you are forty or fifty you’ll be like a car that can’t go anywhere.

Investing Bottomline

Buffett’s lessons are simple and straightforward. He submits to keep it simple, improve upon what you know, stay within your circle of competence and comfort zone, and there are enough opportunities for one to thrive in investing.


References:

  1. https://www.etmoney.com/blog/9-lessons-in-investing-by-warren-buffett/
  2. https://thetotalentrepreneurs.com/business-lessons-warren-buffet/
  3. https://addicted2success.com/life/5-lessons-we-can-all-learn-from-the-life-of-warren-buffett/
  4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-warren-buffetts-most-important-224429018.html

Recession…recessions always come with significant increase in unemployment. It’s basically definitional. Employment and gross domestic product fall together during a recession.

Taxing Unrealized Gains: A Politically Dum Ideal

“Honestly, I [Mark Cuban] don’t think Elizabeth Warren knows that’s all what she’s talking about when she deals with this. I think she just likes to demonize people that are wealthy, and that’s fine, it’s a great political move for her, but I just don’t think that they really understand the implications of taxing unrealized gains.” ~ Mark Cuban

U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, D-Oregon., has proposed a so-called mark-to-market version of the capital gains tax. Put more simply, investors would pay capital gains taxes each and every year in which their assets go up in value, instead of only when they are sold.

Additionally, President Joe Biden wants to introduce a new tax that targets the wealthiest families in the country. It’s called the Billionaire Minimum Income Tax—except that it doesn’t only tax billionaires, it isn’t a minimum tax, and it’s not really a tax on “income” either. But it is a tax . . . so at least they got that part right!

A wealth tax would apply to assets traded in liquid markets, like stocks and bonds, and to illiquid assets like real estate, private companies and complex investments.

This tax on unrealized gains would be not only difficult to implement but also could devastate markets, especially liquid markets, where stocks, bonds and commodities trade.

The annual tax would also apply to illiquid investments like the value of a private company, real estate and other complex investments.

This means that every year, these assets need to be revalued to determine if their worth went up or down (you can write off the estimated loss if the value of the company, or real estate, if realized), but this means annual appraisals for essentially every investment you own.

Unrealized Capital Gains

Capital gains—which are profits (or potential profits) from an investment that goes up in value after you buy it—can either be realized or unrealized.

Unrealized capital gains show you how much your investment has increased in value before you sell it. Once you sell an investment for a profit, you now have realized capital gains.

The difference is that unrealized gains are only on paper—they’re not really real —while realized gains represent real money that’s in your pocket.

Whenever a stock or investment you own is worth more than what you bought it for, you can sell it for a profit—and those profits are called capital gains.

If you decide to hold on to the stock and not sell it, then what you have are unrealized capital gains. After all, you can’t just walk up to your grocery store cashier and pay for milk and eggs with your stock—no matter how much it’s worth on paper.

Problems With an Unrealized Capital Gains Tax

There are three significant reasons why any proposal to make this a reality probably won’t make it too far.  

1. A new unrealized capital gains tax would be a headache to enforce.

For a tax like this to work, thousands of taxpayers would need to evaluate the value of all of their assets every single year. That raises the question: How in the world would the IRS—which is already understaffed and overburdened as it is—be able to audit all those filings?3

2. The proposed tax probably doesn’t have enough support in Congress.

“wealth tax” proposals have hit a brick wall on Capital Hill every time it has been proposed. It doesn’t look like this one is any different.

It’s important to remember, Congress treats the release of the budget from the White House more like a list of suggestions than something that’s written in stone.

3. A tax on unrealized capital gains might be unconstitutional.

It may be ok legal to tax unrealized capital gains. The Constitution makes it extremely tough for the government to impose direct taxes. In fact, Congress had to pass a constitutional amendment just to put a federal income tax in place.6

Basically, any tax that is passed must be spread evenly among every person in every state. And a tax on unrealized capital gains could be considered a direct tax because it’s a tax on the personal property of a select group of people.


References:

  1. https://www.foxnews.com/media/mark-cuban-screw-you-elizabeth-warren-declares-her-everything-wrong-politics
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/03/top-democrats-proposed-capital-gains-tax-would-be-devastating-for-markets.html
  3. https://www.ramseysolutions.com/taxes/unrealized-capital-gains-tax

The Power of Compounding

“The elementary mathematics of compound interest is one of the most important models there is on earth. The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” Charlie Munger

Compounding returns for years and even decades without having to pay taxes on interim gains (apart from taxes on dividend income) results in an investment returns advantage, versus earning similar returns in a more typical high-turnover strategy.

When it comes to compounding, more time in the market results in more wealth accumulated. If you wait to contribute to your retirement account until 10 years from now, you may have a lot more money to set aside, but you’ll also have lost 10 years of potential growth. And from the hypothetical example above, you know that extra time could potentially lead to greater returns. Of course, investing always comes with risk. Even with the power of compounding, returns are not guaranteed. 

When it comes to saving and investing for the long term, there is tremendous potential power of tax-efficient compounding when it comes to long-term wealth creation.

taxes and the long-term implications taxes have on wealth accumulation.

The ability to hold an investment for years allows investments to compound in a tax-efficient manner over long periods of time. Unfortunately, the typical retail investor does not capitalize on this opportunity. In fact, the average holding period for investing in equities in the U.S. has declined for decades.


References:

  1. https://www.osterweisprivateclient.com/insights/Tax_Efficient_Compounding_2021