International Dividend Investing

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U.S. dividend stocks continue to sport relatively low yields compared with other assets, especially as bond yields climb amid the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike.

But, there are alternatives assets to U.S. dividend stocks…international stocks:

  • MSCI Europe index was yielding 3.4%,
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was yielding 2%,
  • MSCI Emerging Markets index was at 3.1%.
  • S&P500 was yielding 1.6%.

“Outside the U.S., there’s more of a culture of returning capital to shareholders through dividends rather than buybacks,” says Julian McManus, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

International stocks offer an higher yield than U.S. equities, though there are risks. Early in the pandemic, for example, dividend cuts went much deeper overseas than they did in the U.S.

Additionally, most countries impose a withholding tax on dividends paid to nonresidents. However, those withholding taxes, in many cases, can be credited against the U.S. shareholder’s U.S. tax liability, according to Robert Willens, a New York–based accounting and tax expert.

Another risk international dividends pose is that they can be more apt to get cut in economic downturns.

U.S. investors face a trade-off when it comes to international dividends: higher yields with higher risk.

References:

  1. Lawrence C. Strauss, Why Income Seekers Should Consider International Stocks, Barron’s, August 5, 2022.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/international-stocks-income-dividends-yield-51659585601

Be a Dreamer and Pursue Your Dreams

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If you’re not pursuing and building your dreams, you’ll spend your entire life working to pursue and build someone else’s.

The greatest accomplishments and historic achievements started as dreams and visions that motivated the dreamer or visionary to shape their thoughts, beliefs and actions into a powerful reality.

From the planes we fly, the cars we drive and the sporting events we stream, passionate dreamers and visionaries like Thomas A. Edison and Elon Musk have developed all the things we enjoy and take for granted today.

“All successful people, men and women, are big dreamers. They imagine what their future could be, ideal in every respect, and then they work every day toward their distant vision, that goal or purpose.”– Brian Tracy

Inflation and Political Silly Season

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40-year record high inflation of 9.1% is driving up the price of everything from gas to groceries, according to a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

The consumer price index was unchanged in July, the first month without an increase since May 2020. But, this does not suggest that the inflation problem has gone away, despite political wishful thinking, states Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust.

Energy prices surged 7.5% in June and then dropped 4.6% in July. That’s what you really need to know about inflation in the past two months. As a result, overall consumer prices soared 1.3% in June and then were unchanged in July. But a new inflation trend this doesn’t make. Looking at both June and July, combined, consumer prices rose at an annualized 8.1% rate. That is no different at all than the 8.1% annualized increase in April and May, before the extra surge in energy prices in June then the drop in July.

Some 96% of global economists said they expect the U.S. to face “high” or “very high” levels of inflation for the rest of the calendar year, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) report. Inflation refers to when prices for consumers increase, thus driving down the purchasing power of consumers’ money.

If you look at the unchanged CPI in July and think the Federal Reserve is nearly done, you’re in for a big surprise, says Wesbury. The Fed isn’t close to done. Yes, the inflation rate likely peaked at 9.1% in June. But getting from 9.1% down to the 5 – 6% range by sometime next year is the relatively easy part. Getting from there back down near the Fed’s 2.0% target is the hard part. Rents have been increasing rapidly around the country and we don’t see that ending anytime soon, which will make it very tough for the Fed to reach its stated goal.

And, it’s delusional to think that the officially-called “Inflation Reduction Act” is actually going to reduce inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; the bill passed by the Democrat controlled Congress isn’t going to have any noticeable short-term impact on inflation.

Bottomline, regardless of political affiliations, the economy continues to grow and inflation remains a very serious problem. “Investors need to set aside their personal political preferences and follow economic reports as they are, not as they want them to be,” writes Wesbury.

  1. https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2022/8/15/silly-season

Recession and Political Silly Season

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The U.S. has entered the official political silly season which is when analysts interpret monthly and quarterly economic reports and data through a highly biased political lens, writes Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust. Unfortunately, he submits that the real unbiased analysis of economic reports and data rarely emerges.

Wesbury opined that the silly season started with politicians from the right proclaiming that the country was in a recession because real GDP declined in both of the first and second quarters of calendar year 2022. These individuals purposely overlooked that the unemployment rate has dropped 0.4 percentage points so far this year. And they fail to notice that payrolls are up an average of 471,000 per month, while industrial production is up at a 5.2% annual rate over the first six months of the year. Never mind that “real” (inflation adjusted) gross domestic income was up in the first quarter.

Although, two quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) growth is commonly viewed as a strong sign that a recession is underway, it is not the official definition.

***Recession are foremost and always a “broad based decline in economic activity”.***

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy, views a recession as a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Additionally, “a recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point,” the NBER says on its website.

Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.

Thus, the economy is currently not in a recession since the NBER’s defines officially a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

“Our view is that a recession is coming, that monetary policy will have to get unusually tight for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back down to its 2.0% target,” states Wesbury. “In turn, tighter money should induce a recession. But that takes time and the recession hasn’t started yet.”

References:

  1. https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2022/8/15/silly-season
  2. https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession

Timeless Investing Lessons

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“It is near impossible to consistently outperform the market, which supports passive investing in lieu of active management strategies.” ~ Burton G. Malkiel

  1. Buy and hold investments for the long-term. Investment expenses and taxes will eat away at your returns. It’s impossible to perfectly time the market. You will make mistakes. Buying total market index fund will include buying nonprofitable companis in the mix. And, historical analysis shows:
    • When markets are high is when most people put money into the market.
    • When markets are low is when most people take money out of the market.
  2. Timing the market doesn’t work. Timing the market means selling assets at the top of the market and buying the asset at the bottom of the market. Successfully trying to time the stock market has never earned. Thus, you should not try to time the market.
  3. Dollar cost averaging. DCA means putting money into the market regularly overtime.
  4. Broad Diversification. You do not want all your personal capital and savings invested in a single stock or a single asset class, such as stocks only. You should diversify your investment across different asset classes (stocks and bonds), industries and countries. You want to own both domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, real estate and some cash.
  5. Cost matters. The two variable costs you can control are investment costs and taxes. Jack Bogle said, “you get what you don’t pay for.” Since, the lower the expense ratio the investor pays the purveyor of investment services, the more capital that is left over for the investor. Look carefully at the expense ratio.
  6. Index funds. Buy a total market index fund with zero or low expenses. Two-thirds of active investment managers are beaten by stock index funds annually. Ninety percent of active investment managers are beaten by stock index funds over a ten year period.
  7. Buy bond substitutes instead of total bond index fund such as preferred stocks or high yielding dividend paying established companies.
  8. Rebalance annually or at least bi-annually. This requires you to sale highly appreciated assets to buy assets that have not appreciated greatly or are on sale.

These are just a few timeless investing lessons that invest can follow to build wealth

References:

  1. https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/random-walk-theory/

COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Tests: One negative test result inadequate

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“If there is concern you’re infected, and you want to make sure you’re not infected, one or two [home rapid antigen] tests is not enough. Do three tests to make sure you’re not infected.” ~ Dr. Apurv Soni, assistant professor of medicine at Chan

Performance of Rapid Antigen Tests for COVID-19 varies over the course of an infection. Anyone who gets a negative result for COVID-19 from an at-home rapid antigen test shouldn’t assume they’re not infected, and should keep testing, according to a safety recommendation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The guidance is based on research conducted by University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School and partners supported by the National Institutes of Health. The study included more than 5,000 people nationwide over age 2.

The study finds that if repeat testing isn’t done, an infection may be present and you could unknowingly spread COVID-19 to others, especially if you’re not experiencing symptoms.

Repeat testing, at least two, is recommended after a negative test for those who show COVID-19 symptoms and for those who are asymptomatic, but may have been exposed to the virus, at least three test are recommended.

For participants who do not have symptoms (asymptomatic), the study found that two additional tests – the first taken 48 hours after the negative result and the second 48 hours later – are more likely to detect COVID-19 during the first week of infection.

For those who were symptomatic, one additional test taken 48 hours after a negative test, the rate of detection was more than 90% when testing started within the first week of infection.

Among the asymptomatic that had an infection lasting at least two days based on PCR testing, repeat testing three times at 48-hour intervals, the rate of detection was 79% when testing started within the first week of infection.

What this means is to optimize detection of COVID-19 infection with home antigen tests, people should test twice at least 48-hours apart if they are symptomatic and three times at 48-hour intervals if they were asymptomatic.

“On a personal level, this study speaks to when antigen tests are useful and not useful, and how to use them,” said Dr. Apurv Soni, assistant professor of medicine at Chan and the study’s lead investigator.

Wear a face mask

Anyone suspected of contracting COVID-19 without showing symptoms should exercise caution by wearing a face mask and stay away from crowds, the study said.

They should continue that practice for at least six days until three at-home antigen tests taken 48 hours apart have been completed.

“If there is concern you’re infected, and you want to make sure you’re not infected, one or two tests is not enough,” said Dr. Soni. “Do three tests to make sure you’re not infected.”

References:

  1. Henry Schwan, At-home COVID tests: One negative result not enough, study says, Worcester Telegram & Gazette, August 12, 2022. https://news.yahoo.com/home-covid-tests-one-negative-161544916.html
  2. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.05.22278466v1

Quote of the Day

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“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.” ~ Burton G. Malkiel, Professor of Economics, Emeritus, Princeton University

Two Wolves

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An old Cherokee is teaching his grandson about life. “A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy.

“It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves.

  • One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.” He continued,
  • “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith.

The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”

Feeding yourself with or focusing on negative thoughts can bring out the worst in yourself.

Conversely, positive thinking fuels the goodness within us. We exude joy, peace, hope, kindness, and love.

Essentially, what you focus your mind and thoughts on grows.

References:

  1. https://www.virtuesforlife.com/two-wolves/