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Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones II, Tudor Group’s Founder and Chief Investment Officer, is one of the pioneers of the modern-day hedge fund industry.  He is known for his macro trades, particularly his bets on interest rates and currencies.

In 1980, he founded Tudor Investment Corporation, which now manages $13 billion in assets.

Between 1989 to 2014, he generated compounded annual returns of nearly 20% without a single down year.

Tudor considers himself one of the most conservative investors in the world.  He would describe himself as the “single most conservative investor on earth”, and he “absolutely hates losing money.” Once he commented that his grandfather told him at a very early age that “you are only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow.”

Thus, his investment philosophy is that he does not take a lot of risks, instead, he looks “for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities.” Others describe his strategy as: ‘Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead”

Source:  https://www.tudor.com/

 

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As the U.S. Government inches closer to its maximum borrowing limit, here’s a primer on what the debt ceiling is and what happens when it’s breached pushing the U.S. Government into technical default.

Inverted Yield Curve and the U.S. Treasury 10 Year

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Given the inverted yield curve and its correlation to predicting recessions, the risk of recession is still elevated, explains Collin. The yield curve is inverted when long-term treasury yields fall below short-term treasury yields.

For example, the 10-year treasury yield is about 3-1/2% %, but the two-year treasury yield is about 4%. And the yield curve tends to invert once the markets begin pricing in Fed rate cuts and tends to send long-term yields lower. Long-term yields like that 10-year treasury yield are often based on Fed Funds Rate expectations over the next 10 years or so. So if the Fed Funds Rate is 5% like it is today, but the Fed Funds Rate is expected to be lower in a year or two, you’ll tend to see longer term yields decline to sort of average out what the Fed Funds Rate might be over the next number of years.

An inverted yield curve is usually followed by a recession. When the Fed hikes rates, it often slows growth along with inflation. It doesn’t necessarily just bring inflation down. When the Fed hikes rates, things in the economy and financial markets tend to break. Maybe the economy slows, maybe corporate defaults pick up, but any way you slice it, there can be negative consequences from Fed rate hikes. So when things break, the Fed then tends to cut rates to stimulate the economy, which can un-invert the yield curve. For example, short-term Treasury bills or treasury notes could fall if and when the Fed cuts rates and they tend to fall below that level of long-term yields.

Now, we think that’s what’s led to the yield curve being less inverted now, it’s really just due to expectations of sooner than expected rate cuts, so short-term rates have fallen more than long-term yields have declined. But if an inverted yield curve is usually followed by a recession, that doesn’t mean that the fact that the yield curve is becoming less inverted is sending a positive signal about the economy.

Just the presence of rate cut expectations tells us that the likelihood of a recession is on the rise, mainly because the Fed cuts rates when they need to, when they need to stimulate the economy. And we think, unfortunately, the Fed will tighten enough right now, not just to slow inflation, but they’ll likely weaken the labor market, which can lead to slower consumer spending, and then the risk of recession is still there.

References:

 

Measuring Success in Life

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“How many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you?” ~ Warren Buffett

The More You Give Love Away, The More You Get

“When you get to my age, you’ll really measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you. I know people who have a lot of money, and they get testimonial dinners and they get hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them. If you get to my age in life and nobody thinks well of you, I don’t care how big your bank account is, your life is a disaster.”

“That’s the ultimate test of how you have lived your life. The trouble with love is that you can’t buy it. You can buy sex. You can buy testimonial dinners. You can buy pamphlets that say how wonderful you are. But the only way to get love is to be lovable. It’s very irritating if you have a lot of money. You’d like to think you could write a check: I’ll buy a million dollars’ worth of love. But it doesn’t work that way. The more you give love away, the more you get.”

Warren Buffett, CEO and Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

Source: Tom Popomaronis, “Warren Buffett says this is ‘the ultimate test of how you have lived your life’—and Bill Gates agrees”, CNBC,  Sep 1 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/billionaires-warren-buffett-bill-gates-agree-this-is-the-ultimate-test-of-how-you-have-lived-your-life.html

Consistency is key to building better habits! Always be consistent, it will helps you a lot. Maintain progressive consistency.

According to Bill Gates, measuring success in life relates to:

  • ‘Did I devote enough time to my family?’ Money can buy you many things like financial freedom and control of your time, but it can’t buy you an extra minute in the day or the love of family and friends.
  • ‘Did I learn enough new things?’ It’s essential to maintain an incredible appetite for learning and yearning for growth. Lifelong learning is essential for continuous growth, success and happiness.
  • ‘Did I develop new friendships and deepen old ones?’ A number of studies have even suggested that there are valuable benefits in cultivating deep relationships. “Our relationships and how happy we are in our relationships has a powerful influence on our health,” Robert Waldinger, a psychiatrist and professor at Harvard Medical School, told The Harvard Gazette in 2017. “Taking care of your body is important, but tending to your relationships is a form of self-care, too.”

Source:  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/06/bill-gates-measures-his-quality-of-life-by-asking-himself-3-questions.html

Finding Purpose

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“The purpose of life is not to be happy. It is to be useful, to be honorable, to be compassionate, to have it make some difference that you have lived and lived well.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

To find your purpose, ask yourself what you care deeply about. By focusing on purpose, you can align your life and work with your deepest values, and also relieve yourself of the expectation that life or the long slog of a career will be all (or even mostly) happiness and sunshine.

The Purpose of Life in Retirement

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“The purpose of life is not to be happy. It is to be useful, to be honorable, to be compassionate, to have it make some difference that you have lived and lived well.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson

For some people, the purpose of life may be to make the world a better place. Others may believe that the point of life is to find and achieve personal fulfillment. And some may feel that the point of life is simply to enjoy it as much as possible.

Many scientists would say that the purpose of life is to evolve and to live a life of purpose, according to Psychology Today magazine.

Evolution is the process that allowed organisms to survive and thrive. Humans, along with every living animal or plant, owe our existence to it.

Our purpose is to “evolve” during our lifetime because that is consistent with our evolutionary purpose.

Thus, the purpose of life?” is that we are here so that we can continue to live, adapt, learn, and grow. A purpose of life, and our purpose, is to continue to evolve.

We Evolved to Evolve

“Evolution” is a process of learning, adapting, and growing to be more effective and efficient, we see evolution everywhere.

Evolution is fundamental to every living organism. Inherent to our existence is that we learn, adapt, and grow. Additionally, maintaining healthy personal relationships is existential to our existence

Health, happiness, and longevity are the payoffs for this. Since our biological evolution is the foundation of our existence, a purpose of our lives is to continue to “evolve” during our lifetime by learning and growing.

There are several ways to grow, adapt and learn (to find purpose) in life, such as:.

  • Helping Others – Volunteering your time to help others can be a source of purpose.
  • Cultivating Relationships – Spending time with friends and family. Healthy and supportive interpersonal relationships are essential for both physical and mental health.
  • Continuing to Learn and Grow – Henry Ford stated, “Anyone who stops learning is old — whether this happens at twenty or at eighty. Anyone who keeps on learning not only remains young but becomes constantly more valuable — regardless of physical capacity.” To learn is to grow.  
  • Pursuing Your Interests – Pursuing hobbies or activities you enjoy can be an effective way to bring meaning into your life. Focus on doing work that is meaningful to you, whether it involves pursuing a career that you love, developing your creative skills, or simply enjoying your leisurely pastimes.
  • Building Your Awareness – Becoming more aware of your own thoughts, interests, and connections to the world around you can also be helpful when you are questioning the point of life.
  • Practicing Gratitude – Practicing gratitude, or the act of feeling and expressing thankfulness for the things that you appreciate in life has been shown to have a range of benefits. It can strengthen relationships, improve happiness, boost resilience, and improve overall health.

References:

  1. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/tech-happy-life/202010/what-is-the-purpose-life
  2. https://www.verywellmind.com/whats-the-point-of-life-why-you-might-feel-this-way-5272182

April 2023 – Financial Literacy Month

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April is Financial Literacy Month. It’s a month to raise awareness around financial literacy and wellness, and highlighting the importance of financial planning and of developing  healthy financial habits.

A new National Financial Educators Council (NFEC) survey found that lacking financial literacy — and not knowing how to manage personal finances — carried a high cost in 2022.

The NFEC survey showed that 38% of Americans said their lack of financial literacy cost them $500 or more, and a whopping 23% said it cost them more than $10,000 — a steep increase from the 10.7% who said the same in 2021.

As a result, the estimated average amount of money that financial illiteracy cost Americans was $1,819 in 2022 — the highest average since the first annual survey took place six years ago. This figure correlates with record-high inflation rates and other economic challenges, the NFEC noted.

In terms of common costly mistakes, overdraft fees were prominent: the median overdraft fee on a debit card is $34, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

According to the survey, which cites CFPB data, most debit card overdraft fees happen on transactions of $24 or less — and American consumers end up spending $17 billion a year on overdraft and non-sufficient funds fees.

References:

  1. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/financial-literacy-or-lack-thereof-can-make-the-difference-of-%2410000-or-more-a-year-on

Bond Market Volatility

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A bond is a loan made to a corporation or government in exchange for regular interest payments. The bond issuer agrees to pay back the loan by a specific date. Bonds can be traded on the secondary market. The bond market is usually where investors venture when looking for stability, security, and a lower risk profile as a part of their investment portfolio.

What happens in the bond market has real implications for equity investors and for the economy in general. A bond essentially represents an IOU—a promise to repay a loan on a certain date, along with specified interest payments along the way.

Prices and interest rates for an individual bond depend on a variety of factors, including positive or negative news about the issuer or changes in its credit rating.

But at a higher level, returns in the bond markets are much more related to interest rate changes—and perceptions about what will happen to interest rates in the future. When interest rates fall, the prices of existing bonds go up. And when interest rates rise, the opposite happens: If your loan is earning you less money than someone could make by giving a brand-new loan, they’re going to pay less to buy your loan. This creates volatility in the bond market.

However, the volatility seen in the bond market in the recent short term hasn’t been seen in decades.

Volatility has returned to the bond sector. And, some of the “rules” that have held true in the bond market for decades have been overturned. For example, early last month in March 2023, the year U.S. Treasury bond yield briefly ticked above 5%, which is the highest it had been in more than 15 years. A couple of weeks later it was back below 4%.

In early March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in testimony before Congress that the peak Fed Funds Rate was likely to be higher than many initially expected, explains Collin Martin, director and fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. And when Powell suggested that, investors began to act, and they sent up treasury yields to where they expected the Fed Funds Rate to reach down the road. Now, like most investments, yield comes down to supply and demand. And following the comments from Powell, treasury investors demanded higher yields then, in the short term, so that they weren’t stuck holding investments with lower yields if the Fed did hike more than they initially anticipated.

The dynamics changed pretty suddenly with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank pulling down yields sharply, because of concerns about financial stability, Collin stated.

Now, the Fed has a dual mandate of price stability, which can be considered inflation, and maximum employment. But the Fed also has an unofficial mandate of financial stability, and the collapse and failure of a few banks led to concern that stability could deteriorate.

So investors totally shifted their expectations for Fed policy, and instead of expecting a peak rate of 5-1/2% or more, expectations were that the peak rate might only be 5% or so. In fact, bpnd investors weren’t even sure if the Fed would hike at all going forward, and they began to price in rate cuts sooner than expected. Now, if the Fed was only expected to hold its rate at 5% or so, and then cut it soon, investors pulled down those expectations and were willing to accept a lower yield and lock in that lower yield for certainty rather than risk what happens if the Fed cuts rates down the road. And that’s what pulled their prices up and yields down because of those expectations.

References:

  1. Volatile Bond Market Signaling Changes to Economy podcast transcript, Charles Schwab WashingtonWise, April 6, 2023.
  2. https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/portfolio-management/bond-markets#modal-bond

Federal Fiscal Deficit vs. National Debt

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Democrats spend money when they don’t raise taxes; and, Republicans cut taxes when they don’t decrease spending. Tax and spending reforms are needed desperately.

“The government has basically three gigantic programs and it’s the US military, Social Security, and Medicare,” Marc Goldwein, a senior policy director at Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) said. As Nobel-Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman once wrote, the US government is “best thought of as a giant insurance company with an army,” and increasing interest payments.

If the government wants to get serious about its fiscal spending and reducing the national debt, all government spending would have to be reduced by 27% to get budgets balanced in the next decade — and, if tax increases, defense spending, Social Security, and Medicare are all off the table, 78% of federal spending would have to be cut, according to CRFB.

The federal deficit vs. Debt — they’re two separate concepts.

  • The deficit is the difference between the money that the government makes and the money it spends during a fiscal year. If the government spends more than it collects in revenues, then it’s running a deficit.
  • The federal debt is the running total of the accumulated deficits.

The combination of spending increases, tax cutsc, and increasing interest expenses on the debt inflates deficits. While the rise in spending tends to be bi-partisan, tax cuts tend to be enacted by Republicans.

Reference:

  1. https://news.yahoo.com/want-balance-budget-without-raising-100000676.html
  2. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/jul/29/tweets/republican-presidents-democrats-contribute-deficit/