Category Archives: Investing

12 Timeless Rules of Investing

Posted on by

Guidelines Every Investor Should Embrace, But Few Actually Do

An Investment U White Paper Report written by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Advisory Panelist, Investment U

In the the white paper report, Dr. Sjuggerud identified 12 classic investing rules that every investor can use throughout their lifetimes.

These guidelines are provided to help investors achieve their goals, sometimes in capitalizing on gains and sometimes in mitigating losses.

1. An attempt at making a quick buck often leads to losing much of that buck.

  • The people who suffer the worst losses are those who overreach.
  • If the investment sounds too good to be true, it is.
  • The best hot tip is “there is no such thing as a hot tip.”

2. Don’t let a small loss become large.

  • Don’t keep losing money just to “prove you are right.”
  • Never throw good money after bad (don’t buy more of a loser).
  • When all you’re left with is hope, get out.

3. Cut your losers; let your winners ride.

  • Avoid limited-upside, unlimited-downside investments.
  • Don’t fall in love with your investment; it won’t fall in love with you.

4. A rising tide raises all ships, and vice versa. So assess the tide, not the ships.

  • Fighting the prevailing “trend” is generally a recipe for disaster.
  • Stocks will fall more than you think and rise higher than you can imagine.
  • In the short run, values don’t matter. In the long run, valuations do matter.

5. When a stock hits a new high, it’s not time to sell something that is going right.

  • When a stock hits a new low, it’s not time to buy something that is going wrong.

6. Buy and hold doesn’t ALWAYS work.

  • If stocks don’t seem cheap, stand aside.

7. Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

8. If you don’t understand the investment, don’t buy it.

  • Don’t be wooed. Either make an effort to understand it or say “no thanks.”
  • You can’t know everything, so don’t stray far from what you know.

9. Buy value, and sell hysteria.

  • Paying less than the underlying asset’s value is a proven successful investing strategy.
  • Buying overvalued stocks has proven to under perform the market.
  • Neglected sectors often offer good values.
  • The “popular” sectors are often overvalued.

10. Investing in what’s popular never ends up making you any money.

  • Avoid popular stocks, fad industries and new ventures.
  • Buy an investment when it has few friends.

11. When it’s time to act, don’t hesitate.

  • Once you’re in, be patient and don’t be rattled by fluctuations.
  • Stick with your plan… but when you make a mistake, don’t hesitate.
  • Learn more from your bad moves than your good ones.

12. Expert investors care about risk; novice investors shop for returns.

  • If you focus on the risks, the returns will eventually come for you.
  • If you focus on the returns, the risks will eventually come for you.

Good investing.

References:

  1. https://investmentu.com/timelessrules/

Long-Term Investing

Posted on by

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson

Everyone is a long-term investor up to the moment the stock market correction or crash occurs. “During bull markets, everyone believes that he is committed to stocks for the long term,” opines Billionaire investor William J. Bernstein. “Unfortunately, history also tells us that during bear markets, you can hardly give stocks away. Most investors are simply not capable of withstanding the vicissitudes of an all-stock investment strategy.

Yet, successful investing is a long game. It takes “time, patience and discipline”, says Warren Buffett. When you put money to work in markets it’s best to set it and forget it. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett quipped, “Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a fly epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

Myopic Loss Aversion

Investors must manage the battle between fear and greed in their heads and stomachs to be successful in building wealth in the long term. Unfortunately, the fear of loss is generally a more powerful force that overwhelms many investors during periods of steep losses in stock prices.

Even though they don’t plan to liquidate the investment for decades, many investors panic during market corrections and bear markets; causing them to miss out on the often sharp recovery in prices that follows.

Being a long-term investor is more about inner attitude, about positive mindset and about behavior then the asset holding timeframe. Being a long-term investor requires a confidence based on clarity of purpose, rigorous research, and insightful analysis.

Long-term investors should invest in sustainable and growing companies – companies that are likely to be around and that are increasing their intrinsic value for the long term.

Behavior is an essential value of a long-term investor since behavior drives results. Thus, staying calm during a downturn is indeed a critical quality of any long-term investor,

For long-term investors, if you are clear about your investment principles, confident in your investment’s thesis, and genuinely believe in your investment strategy, a market downturn is the best time to invest in companies.

Overall, investing is all about focusing on your financial goals and ignoring the noise and mania of the markets and the financial media. That means buying and holding for the long term, regardless of any news that might move you to try and time the market. “There is only one way of investing, and that is long term,” says Vid Ponnapalli, a CFP and owner of Unique Financial Advisors and Tax Consultants in Holmdel, N.J.

Investor, Mohnish Pabrai, says it best, “You don’t make money when you buy stocks, and you don’t make money when you sell stocks. You make money by waiting.”

“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/tips-for-long-term-investing/
  2. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b18x07sykt3psy/What-Long-Term-Investor-Really-Means
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-shook/2022/05/10/an-investors-mind-6-ways-it-can-block-the-path-to-long-term-wealth/?sh=7ca749405f7c

Magic Formula

Posted on by

“Believe it can be done. When you believe something can be done, really believe, your mind will find the ways to do it. Believing a solution paves the way to solution.” – David J. Schwartz

In “The Little Book That Beats the Market”, Joel Greenblatt, Founder and Managing Partner at Gotham Capital (average annualized returns of 40% for over 20 years), sets out the basic principles for successful stock market investing.

In his book, Greenblatt provides a “magic formula” that makes buying good companies at bargain prices process driven. It takes a bunch of stocks (Russell 3000) and ranks them on quality; takes the same bunch and ranks them on value. Add the two ranks and buy the stocks with the highest summed ranks. Hold them for a year or preferably longer.

The formula is based on two very solid pillars of value investing: Invest in companies with high returns, and make sure they’re selling at a large discount (margin of safety).

For his quality factor, Greenblatt chose return on capital, defined as EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) divided by the sum of working capital and fixed assets. For his value factor, Greenblatt chose EBIT divided by enterprise value.

“If you just stick to buying good companies (ones that have a high return on capital) and to buying those companies only at bargain prices (at prices that give you a high earnings yield), you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.”

“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you’re looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you’re still an idiot.”

“In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits.”

“Stock prices move around wildly over very short periods of time. This does not mean that the values of the underlying companies have changed very much during that same period. In effect, the stock market acts very much like a crazy guy named Mr. Market.”

“Although over the short term, Mr. Market may set stock prices based on emotion, over the long term, it is the value of the company that becomes most important to Mr. Market.”

“After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things: 1. If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and 2. That leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.”
― Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats the Market

“Over the short term, Mr. Market acts like a wildly emotional guy who can buy or sell stocks at depressed or inflated prices. Over the long run, it’s a completely different story: Mr. Market gets it right.”

“Although over the short term Mr. Market may price stocks based on emotion, over the long term Mr. Market prices stocks based on their value.”

Greenblatt’s three basic principles:

  1. Buy good companies;
  2. Buy them at bargain prices;
  3. Use ranking to pick stocks.

Financial commentator Gary Shilling likes to say, “The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”

T,hus, when looking for bargain prices, you need to look at a lot more things than earnings yield, and when looking for good businesses, you need to look at a lot more things than high return on capital.

You can’t judge a business as good or bad without looking at its stability, its growth prospects, and the quality of its earnings; and you can’t judge a business as a bargain without looking at a variety of valuation metrics.

References:

  1. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/73414-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/03/23/foolish-book-review-the-little-book-that-beats-the.aspx
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374333-how-market-beat-little-book-beats-market-stock-pickers-guide-to-joel-greenblatts-magic

Differences Between Price and Value

Posted on by

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Warren Buffett

“Don’t judge a company’s stock by its share price.” Many people incorrectly assume that a stock with a low dollar price is cheap, while another one with a four-digit dollar price is expensive. In fact, a stock’s price says little about that stock’s value. Moreover, it says nothing at all about whether that the market price of a company is headed higher or lower.

The most important distinction between the ‘market price you pay’ and the ‘intrinsic value you get’ is the fact that price is arbitrary and value is fundamental.

  • Price is the amount paid for the product or service.
  • Cost is the aggregate monetary value of the inputs used in the production of the goods or services.
  • Value of a product or service is the utility or worth of the product or service for an individual.

To effectively deploy this strategy, it’s essential to find a company that you understand, that has solid fundamentals — then be patient and wait until the company’s stock price falls below its intrinsic value before you purchase the company.

Regarding ‘understanding’ a company, it’s important for investors to know how a company makes its money–revenue, profits and free cash flow.

At some point, a stock’s market price over the long term adjusts to its intrinsic value. This fact is how successful investors such as Warren Buffet have used to make billions over the long term.

“Finding differences between price and value is by far the most effective investment strategy”, writes Phil Townes, founder of Rule One Investing . “Not recognizing differences between price and value is also what causes many investors to lose their shirts, as companies are just as often overpriced as they are underpriced.”

How do you find companies that are on sale for less than their true value is to evaluate companies using a set of standards that look beyond the company’s current price tag. Phil Town call these standards the four Ms:

  • Meaning,
  • Moat,
  • Management and
  • Margin of Safety

The first step is to make sure you understand the company and the company you invest in has meaning to you as an investor. If it does, you’ll understand it better, be more likely to research it and be more passionate about investing in it.

The second step is to choose a company that has a moat. This means that there is something inherent about the company that makes it difficult for competitors to step in and carve away part of their market share.

The third step is to look at the company’s management. Companies live and die by the people managing them, and if you are going to invest in a company, you need to make sure their management is talented and trustworthy.

Finally, calculate the company’s intrinsic value and determine a margin of safety. Margin of safety is the price at which you can buy shares of a company, being more likely that you won’t lose money and have increased confident that you will make a good return on your invested capital.

When the market price of a company is lower than the company’s intrinsic value number, the company is deemed underpriced and represents a great investment opportunity.

“Leveraging differences between price and value is as simple as that”, said Town. “Find a company that you believe in, that has solid fundamentals — then wait until their price falls below their value. If you do this, you can buy companies on sale, sell them for their true value and make a lot of money in the process.”

The goal is to identify stocks that are undervalued—that is, their market prices do not reflect their true intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/
  2. https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and-value.html
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/stock-prices-fool.asp

The overriding goal is to help individuals learn how to successfully invest in assets, to build long term wealth and achieve lifetime financial freedom. 

Inflation Will Persist

Posted on by

“Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it.” Capital Group

For the past 30 years, investors haven’t had to worry much about dealing with inflation, says Capital Group fixed income portfolio manager Ritchie Tuazon. That changed last summer when COVID-related distortions and excessive government stimulus caused prices for energy and most consumer goods to skyrocket.

Today, the biggest questions for long term investors are how high will inflation go and how long will it last?

Adding to the uncertainty is that there are two types of inflation, according to Tuazon:

  • Sticky inflation tends to have longer staying power. Sticky categories include rent, insurance and medical expenses.
  • Flexible inflation — affecting items such as food, energy and cars — has risen much faster in recent months but many believe it won’t last.

From Capital Group’s perspective, they expect high inflation might persist longer than expected and should move closer to its 2% historic goal by sometime in 2023.

Higher inflation levels should remain elevated through late 2022, fueled by labor shortages and broken supply chains. “Consumer prices will eventually return to normal, but that process may take longer than Fed officials are expecting,” says Tuazon.

The Fed is left to react to inflation, but not overreact. Start, but not go too fast. Tighten, but not in the “wrong” ways.

Regarding inflation impact, “the first question is whether inflation will cool off enough on its own to not threaten corporate earnings growth or hurt consumer spending”, states Liz Young, Head of SoFi Investment Strategy. “The second question is less about whether the Fed can control inflation expectations with policy moves and more about whether the market is going to think they’re making a mistake and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

References:

  1. https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFCPBR-086-652781.pdf

Don’t Fight the Fed

Posted on by

“We continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease.” Dan Niles

“The markets are in a volatile and dangerous place as of now,” writes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund.

In his article entitled “Market Thoughts Following Q1”, Niles contends that investors heed the warning: “Don’t Fight the Fed”.

He states that “Investors are forgetting that it [Don’t Fight the Fed] works on the way down as well as the way up. The Federal Reserve (The Fed) expanded their balance sheet by $4.8 trillion since the start of the pandemic while the US government added ~$5.5 trillion in stimulus. Combined stimulus of roughly half of US GDP of $20.5 trillion is the major driver of why the prices of stocks (along with homes, cars, boats, crypto, art, NFTs, etc) all went up over the past two years during a global pandemic. Now, the Fed dot plot shows 10 rate hikes in less than two years and they will be cutting trillions off the balance sheet probably starting on May 4th along with a 50 bps rate hike.”

“The #1 concern for investors in 2022 should continue to be that the Fed is so far behind the curve on dealing with inflation that they will have to be much more aggressive than in prior tightening cycles despite high inflation & geopolitical risk.” Dan Niles

“We [Satori Fund] continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease. Since World War II,

  1. Every time Inflation (CPI) is over 5% a recession has occurred
  2. Every time oil prices have doubled relative to the prior 2-year average ($54 in this case) a recession has occurred
  3. 10 of the 13 prior recessions have been preceded by a tightening cycle by the Fed
  4. 10 of the last 13 recessions have been preceded by the 10-year yield going below the 2-year yield”

For retail investors, Niles recommends “cash until inflation, Fed tightening and economic slowing run their course over the next one to two years. He writes that “most of the time, cash is a terrible investment especially in a high inflationary environment, but it is better to lose 6-7% to inflation this year than 20%+ in a stock market drop. With the Fed being this far behind the curve on inflation, we will find out how much froth is in valuations as the Fed starts tightening as growth continues to slow.”

Satori Fund likes companies that

  1. Benefit from economic reopening (not pandemic beneficiaries);
  2. Are profitable with good cash flow;
  3. Have growth but at a reasonable price;
  4. Benefit from higher-than-average inflation;
  5. Benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds. 

They foresee investing tailwinds in:

  • Datacenter, office enterprise, and 5G infrastructure.
  • Reopening plays such as airlines, cruise lines, travel, rideshare, and dating services as people adjust to covid becoming endemic.
  • Banks which should benefit from higher interest rates.
  • Alternative energy as geopolitics and fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War drives investment in the space.

References:

  1. https://www.danniles.com/articles

Wall Street Driving Up Rents and Housing Prices

Posted on by

The government has estimated that the nation is short about 4 million homes, and that number is likely growing.

A good examples of just how wild the housing market has become in Florida, look no further than the city of St. Augustine. A property has been on the market for thirty days with a disgustingly steep price considering the home’s exceptionally run-down (think ugly shabby) condition.

Asking price $349K on Zillow

This house is listed as a “Major fixer upper!!! Property to be sold AS-IS” on Zillow. It’s a 448-square-foot, one-bedroom, one-bath home that has definitely seen better days. The asking price is a whopping $349,000.

With housing in such short supply, Wall Street saw an opportunity, and began buying modest, single-family houses. Once bought, they rent them out. In places like Jacksonville, Atlanta, Charlotte, investors are buying almost 30% of the homes that are available for regular home buyers.

These Wall Street companies come in and buy a home, paying at or above market price for the home. And then, they set a market rent, charging 30%-40% higher rent than the previous owner asked.

References:

  1. https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/03/24/want-to-buy-a-fixer-upper-in-st-augustine-this-1-bedroom-house-is-for-sale-for-349000/
  2. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/112-Moore-St-Saint-Augustine-FL-32084/47777206_zpid/

Investing Involves Decision Making

Posted on by

Investing involves decision-making. But not making those investing decisions can be a more costly move in itself.

Choosing to invest your money in the stock market is like picking your first tattoo. The stakes are high and all the available options can seem overwhelming to your senses. Thankfully, there is an an abundant amount of good financial services, resources and advice available to help you avoid making a mistake mistake and to get you started.

There is truly no time like the present to start investing. Because the sooner you start, the more time your money has to grow and the more potential you have to earn, because of the power of compound interest. This is when your money earns money on itself and grows exponentially.

But, growth isn’t always guaranteed. Investing means taking in a certain amount of risk since the market moves in cycles. Although investing comes with some risk, it doesn’t have to feel like a high-stakes gamble.

Rest assured, historically, stocks have bounced back from every downturn in history. And, then continued to climb. Investing consistently overtime can make it easier to ride out the market volatility, the ups and downs.

The first step is determining what you want your future to look like financially in retirement. Retirement is probably your most important and expensive goal, and a good place to start.

It’s important to build a portfolio based on your time horizon, how you want to invest, how comfortable you’re with risk and what you plan to use your investment earnings are for. But, you must get started.

Ready, set, go(als).

Investing could help you owe the IRS less during tax time. For example, you have until the tax filing deadline each year to open and fund an IRA, which could help you claim an extra deduction.

Harvesting losses in your brokerage account could help you reduce your capital gains taxes for the year.

If you want more control over your investment portfolio, self-directed investing is the way to go. Self-directed investing is for people at all experience levels.

However, if you prefer a hands-off approach, financial advisors or automated robo-advisors can help you capture your financial goals and tailor an investment portfolio to achieve your financial goals, complete with regular rebalancing.

But, before you jump headfirst into investing your money, it’s wise to assess your present financial status first (your cash flow and net worth) and make sure you’ve got a solid savings foundation to build on.

Finding a balance between saving your money and building wealth through investing for your future is not rocket science. It is simple to build savings and help take the fear and uncertainty out of investing.

References:

  1. https://taskandpurpose.com/from-our-partners/set-your-future-up-for-success-save-and-invest/
  2. https://www.brighthousefinancial.com/education/retirement-planning/covering-everyday-expenses-in-retirement/

Staying Invested Matters

Posted on by

Investors are more likely to reach their long-term goals if they remain invested and avoid short-term decisions that may take them off course.

Staying the course during market volatility is often difficult for many investors. Some choose to move to cash investments, while others try to time the market. Regrettably, these investors are often buying high and selling low—and miss the rallies that follow the challenging periods.

Yet, staying invested through market ups and downs can help you stay on track to reach your investment goals.

Once you’ve determined how much you want to invest, setting up automatic transfers to your investment account or periodic investments can help you stay on track.

For example, investors often make suboptimal investing decisions when emotions take over, tending to buy out of excitement when the market is going up and sell out of fear when the market is falling. Markets do ultimately normalize, and when they do, those who stay invested may benefit more than those who don’t.  Consider this:

  • By missing some of the market’s best days, investors can lose out on critical opportunities to grow their portfolio. Market timing can have devastating results.
  • Seven of the best 10 days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
  • The second worst day for the markets during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, March 12, 2020, was immediately followed by the second best day of the year.

Trying to time the bottom is never considered a sound strategy for long-term investing.

Staying invested during periods of heighten market volatility is an important strategy as, historically, six of the ten best days in the market occur within two weeks of the ten worst days; those who miss the best days miss out on performance.

Thus, the decision to stay invested during market turmoil is often better than timing
when to sell and buy.

References:

  1. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/principles-for-investing/
  2. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/the-benefits-of-staying-invested/

Benjamin Graham

Posted on by

Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow.

Benjamin Graham, colleague and mentor to billionaire investor Warren Buffett,  is widely acknowledged as the father of value investing. His timeless book, The Intelligent Investor, is considered the value investor’s bible for both individual investors and Wall Street professionals.

Many of Benjamin Graham’s concepts are deemed fundamental for value investors, and his concepts should be studied and followed for anyone who plans to invest long term in the stock market.

For example, “Margin of Safety” is the famous term coined by Ben Graham. In simple terms, an asset worth $100 and bought at $80 has a better Margin of Safety than the same asset purchased at $95. In other words, “A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock”,  according to Benjamin Graham.

The 10 Benjamin Graham quotes, all of which are valuable in today’s market, tell us that::

  1. “A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with an underlying value that does not depend on its share price.”
  2. “People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”
  3. “While enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street, it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
  4. “Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.”
  5. “Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.”
  6. “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
  7. “To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.”
  8. “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
  9. “The investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.”
  10. “Weighing the evidence objectively, the intelligent investor should conclude that IPO does not stand only for ‘initial public offering.’ More accurately, it is also shorthand for: It’s Probably Overpriced, Imaginary Profits Only, Insiders’ Private Opportunity, or Idiotic, Preposterous, and Outrageous.”

See the source image“I never ask if the market is going to go up or down because I don’t know, and besides, it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: ‘Where is the one that is lowest-priced in relation to what I believe it is worth?’ Forty years of experience have taught me you can make money without ever knowing which way the market is going.”—Sir John Templeton

“Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.” – Benjamin Graham

“Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.” – Benjamin Graham

References:

  1. https://cabotwealth.com/daily/value-investing/benjamin-graham-quotes-to-improve-your-investing-results/