Microsoft’s Stock Market Value Higher Than Apple’s

Microsoft’s stock market value closed higher than Apple’s for the first time since 2021, making it the world’s most valuable company based on market capitalization.

While both technology companies were part of the so-called Magnificent 7’s powerful rally in 2023, their fortunes have diverged year. Microsoft has risen 3.3%, while Apple has dropped 3.4%.

Microsoft has incorporated OpenAI’s technology across its suite of productivity software, a move that helped spark a rebound in its cloud-computing business.

Apple, meanwhile, has been grappling with tepid demand, including for the iPhone, its cash cow. Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country’s economy makes a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and a resurgent Huawei erodes its market share.

Both tech stocks look relatively expensive in terms of price to their expected earnings, a common method of valuing publicly listed companies.

Apple is trading at a forward PE of 28, well above its average of 19 over the past 10 years. Microsoft is trading around 32 times forward earnings, above its 10-year average of 24.

Source: Noel Randewich,  Microsoft edges out Apple as world’s most valuable company, Reuters, January 12, 2024. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/microsoft-edges-apple-worlds-most-232740340.html

U.S. Investors Avoid Investing in China

China’s economy is in trouble.

China’s President Xi, speaking with forked tongue to the gullible, attempts to both revive an economy struggling to arrest a slide in the property sector by wooing Western capital, while also attempting to strengthen national security as military and trade tensions rise with the US. Even Chinese leader Xi Jinping has acknowledged the many challenges the country’s economy faced in calendar year 2023.

Western ompanies and investors have been caught in the middle, with executives hearing warm words from top Chinese officials only to then see authorities crackdown on consultancy firms, expand a vague anti-spy law and restrict access to data.

The Chinese economy has experienced higher unemployment, a downturn in manufacturing, reduce domestic GDP growth, political unrest, and a crashing real estate market, stated Gary Locke, former U.S. Ambassador to China. There exist lack of investor confidence and uncertainty in Chinese economy.

The country’s shift toward “a more totalitarian environment” has resulted in growing anxiety about being in China among foreign investors, according to Zak Dychtwald, founder of Shanghai-based trend research company Young China Group.

Western business people contemplating trips to China mist be crconcerned and exercise caution about the risks of unwarranted detention and becoming a political hostage similar to what has happened to U.S. citizens traveling to Russia, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea.


Reference:

  1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/xi-s-mixed-messages-leave-whiplashed-investors-wary-of-china/ar-AA1moQjP

Coffee Can Investing Strategy (Finding 100 Bagger)

“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”  ― Warren Buffett

Coffee Can Investment Strategy involves buying and holding a portfolio of high-quality companies for the long-term, typically ten years or more. The strategy is based on the premise that investing in the right high-quality companies will result in significant capital appreciation over time.

The concept was popularized in India by Saurabh Mukherjea in his book “ Coffee Can Investing:  The Low-Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.

In this strategy, investors pick a group of high-quality companies with a proven track record of generating consistent profits, revenue growth and return on invested capital (ROIC). The chosen equity stocks are held for an extended period irrespective of market conditions or short term volatility.

This strategy allows investors to avoid the temptation of selling their equity holdings during short-term market volatility. It protect the investor from their own bad decision and investing behavior.

You only need one of the Coffee Can companies to hit and become a 100 bagger.

But, how to look at a small cap company and know that they have a runway.

Look at the ownership and use your imagination to determine if a company can have organic growth and expand into other markets.

At the end of 10 years, you will have some stocks that have not grown, others that have lost value, and two to four outperformers. Those outperformers will provide a high return on investment.

It refers to companies that have generated a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 15% every year with the Coffee Can Investing approach. This makes the approach a low-risk route to making stupendous wealth.

Coffee Can Portfolio is mostly concerned with stock quality. As an investor, you must choose a quality stock, which signifies a fundamentally strong company. Here are some points to build a Coffee Can Portfolio.

  1. The company should have been in existence for at least 10 years.
  2. The revenue growth should be at least 10% year per year.
  3. ROIC of at least 15% for 10 years
  4. Market capitalization should be more than $500 million USD
  5. The company should have good brand value.
  6. The company should have a competitive edge.
  7. Founder or CEO has skin in the game focused on driving value in the business. Executive management is strong. 

For instance, let’s take an example of a toothpaste company. If a toothpaste company’s prices are increased, will people stop brushing? The answer is “NO.” Similarly, this strategy neither works on quantity nor growth; it works on quality investing.


References:

  1. https://groww.in/blog/the-coffee-can-portfolio

Buffet’s Owner’s Earnings

Owner earnings (OE) is a valuation method detailed by Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report in 1986. He stated that the value of a company is simply the total of the net cash flows (owner earnings) expected to occur over the life of the business, minus any reinvestment of earnings.

Owners’ earnings, also known as cash flow for owners, remains one of the more accurate measures of how much money we can make from an investment and helps calculate intrinsic value.

The formula for owners’ earnings is as follows:

OE = Net income + Non-cash charges – Maintenance Capex +/- Changes in working capital Where the below:

  • Non-cash = depreciation, amortization, impairment + other charges
  • Maintenance Capex = Cash a company spends to maintain normal biz operations.
  • Changes in working capital = adding the items under “Change in operating assets and liabilities” from the CF statement.

We will use a combination of cash flow statements to find the numbers.

To simplify some of this maintenance, the capex is an imprecise number that Buffett didn’t define precisely.

Many suggest different calculation methods; we will use the CF number to simplify.

Using $MSFT as our guinea pig for the year ending 2022. Below are the numbers taken from the financials:

  • Net income = $72,738
  • Non-cash = $16,260
  • Capex = ($23,866)
  • Changes in working capital = $446

Plugging in the numbers for $MSFT, we get:

Owners Earnings = $72,738+$16,260-$23,866+$446 = $65,578

Per share = $65,578 / 7,496 = 8.74

When compared to current P/FCF equals 8.70

Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks:

Revenue growth 12%
Shares outstanding <2%
Net debt to FCF below 5x
Free cash flow growth +15%
Return on Invested capital +15%
Earnings per share growth +15%

12 companies that qualify:

 

Value vs Growth Stocks

Value investors want to buy stocks for less than they’re worth. If you could buy $100 bills for $80, wouldn’t you do so? ~ Motley Fool

Most public equity stocks are classified as either value stocks or growth stocks. Generally speaking:

  • A value stock trades for a cheaper price than its financial performance and fundamentals suggest it’s worth.
  • A growth stock is a stock in a company expected to deliver above-average returns compared to its industry peers or the overall stock market.

Value stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They typically are mature businesses.
  • They have steady (but not spectacular) growth rates.
  • They report relatively stable revenues and earnings.
  • Most value stocks pay dividends, although this isn’t a set-in-stone rule.

Growth stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They increase their revenue and earnings at a faster rate than the average business in their industry or the market as a whole.
  • They developed an innovative product or service that is gaining share in existing markets, entering new markets, or even creating entirely new industries.
  • They grow faster than average for long periods tend to be rewarded by the market, delivering handsome returns to shareholders in the process.

Regardless of the category of a stock, economic downturns present an opportunity for a value investor. The goal of value investing is to scoop up shares at a discount, and the best time to do so is when the entire stock market is on sale.


References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/value-stocks/
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/growth-stocks/

Berkshire-Hathaway Stock

  • Berkshire Hathaway has beaten the S&P 500 going back 20 years.
  • The company is built to endure the most challenging market environments.

The “Oracle of Omaha” Warren Buffett is a legendary billionaire investor and one of the world’s wealthiest people. While his start at a very early age helped him build a fortune, Buffett hasn’t lost his investing touch.

Since becoming CEO in 1965, the Oracle of Omaha has overseen a greater than 4,400,000% return in his company’s Class A shares (BRK.A). This works out to a nearly 20% annualized return over 58 years.

Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years. Had you invested $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 2003, you would have more than $71,000 today to the S&P 500’s $62,200.

Buffett, and his investing lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, are huge fans of businesses that regularly buy back their stock and increase Berkshire Hathaway’s ownership stake without him or his investment team having to lift a finger.

Stock buybacks can have a positive fundamental impact on a company. For a company with steady or growing net income, buybacks have the ability to increase earnings per share over time. This should help a company’s stock look even more attractive to fundamentally focused value seekers.


References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2023/09/27/if-you-invested-10000-in-berkshire-hathaway-in-200/
  2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/warren-buffett-is-selling-shares-of-this-high-yield-dividend-stock-and-likely-buying-shares-of-his-favorite-stock-no-not-apple/ar-AA1hkkk9

How to Build Wealth When You Don’t Come from Money

by Anne-Lyse Wealth
March 17, 2022

Summary. The first step to building wealth involves your mindset and behaviors. To build wealth, you must first address the systemic and mental barriers faced by many Americans who grew up in families and environments without access to wealth. Changing your mindset and financial behaviors, or building a mindset and creating good financial habits conducive to building wealth, are the real and necessary first steps.

  • To start, let go of limiting beliefs. When you grow up lacking money or the resources to make enough of it, thinking there is a shortage of resources, or watching people around you live paycheck to paycheck, you may be more likely to believe that wealth is reserved for a select few.
  • To overcome this mindset and believe you deserve abundance, practice thought work daily. This is the act of consciously paying attention to your thoughts and then choosing to entertain different ones instead.
  • Next, accept that money can do as much good as evil. Don’t let fear stop you from pursuing wealth or the kind of paycheck you need to support you and what you want to accomplish in your lifetime.
  • Finally, understand that a high income is not enough. Building wealth requires intentionally managing your expenses — and, yes, investing. Investing is for everyone, and it can help even the playing field.

Do you want to be wealthy and financially free? Most people probably do — but it is not a leisurely pursuit. The widening wealth gap between the rich and the poor makes it seem impossible for most.

According to a recent Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, millionaires represent less than 9% of the United States population. Even so, the same report notes that in 2020 alone, there were 1.7 new millionaires in the U.S. According to business theorist Thomas J. Stanley, who studied more than 1,000 millionaires for his book The Millionaire Next Door, 80% of U.S. millionaires are first-generation “rich.” That means they didn’t inherit their wealth but built it over time.

These statistics can make you wonder what it takes for a person to overcome humble beginnings and achieve the “American Dream.” What does it take to become a millionaire when you don’t come from wealth?

The first step to attaining wealth — at least for Americans not born into it — is much more personal than mimicking the habits of “The Millionaire Next Door” or investing wisely. Such approaches often fail to address the systemic and mental barriers faced by many Americans who grew up without access to wealth.

Changing your mindset, or building a mindset conducive to wealth, is the first step to attaining it. This means believing that wealth is accessible and you are worthy of wealth. Without that mental drive, the other strategies are moot.

To achieve this mindset, you must let go of limiting beliefs. For most people, developing an abundance mindset, or believing there are enough resources and opportunities for everyone, requires an intentional effort. This is even more true for those who grew up with limited resources and less access to wealth.

According to a study conducted at Purdue University, many of your financial habits are formed by age seven. That means your feelings about money are primarily influenced by how people around you talk about or behave around it.

When you grow up lacking money or the resources to make enough of it, thinking that there is a shortage of resources, or watching people around you live paycheck to paycheck — you may be more likely to believe that wealth is reserved for a select few. I suppose you might be wrong.

It takes more work to expect abundance when you don’t see it around you.

“Every day, many negative thoughts race through our minds. If we don’t learn to filter those thoughts, we start believing them. Eventually, they can lead to a scarcity mindset, which leads to scarcity actions or broke-ass decisions,” said Rachel Rodgers.

Rodgers doesn’t believe in ignoring our negative experiences. Instead, she suggests using them as fuel to help us build a better future. “For example, changing your thoughts is not going to make racism or violence against Black people end,” Rodgers said. “Racism presents many challenges and obstacles to our ability to build wealth. That said, we can work with our thoughts to choose a more effective and empowering response to the racism we experience. Our anger can be a powerful fuel for action.”

Rodgers believes in rewiring our brains to expect abundance and emphasizes the importance of making million-dollar decisions before becoming a millionaire. In Rodgers ‘ words, this involves doing some thought work, “the act of consciously paying attention to your thoughts and then choosing to entertain different ones instead.” She recommends practicing this daily.

“Even though I run an eight-figure business, I do thought work daily,” she said. “When you think more positively about yourself, your work, your intelligence, and your financial decisions, you will start taking more positive actions. Eventually, after some practice, it can improve your life.”

According to Rodgers, million-dollar decisions create time, energy, and options. When you apply for a job, receive an offer, and make a counteroffer because you know your worth, you make a million-dollar decision. When you are proactive about asking for a raise, researching industry rates, and making a case to your boss, you are making a million-dollar decision instead of growing overwhelmed and not acting at all.

Ultimately, your mindset can lead to significant missed opportunities if you don’t change it and believe you deserve abundance no matter where you start.

Accept that money is not always evil.
We’ve all heard the saying that “money is the root of all evil.” Many people — especially those with negative formative experiences with it — will stop desiring wealth because of that belief. But understanding that you can use your money to do good in the world can be a game-changer.

Realized there were other ways to give back to your community. Use money to help others access education and, in turn, have a greater chance of accessing financial freedom.

Similarly, Rodgers initially went to law school because she wanted to work for a nonprofit, advocating for marginalized communities. “The pressures from family members and my student loan debt eventually pushed me to give up on my dream for the sake of making money. I flew around the country, interviewing for jobs I didn’t want. I was offered an associate attorney position at a firm representing Big Oil companies.”

Ultimately, Rodgers’ belief that she could find a more outstanding balance between earning and giving drove her to turn down the position and launch her own business. She credits her decision to her Aunt Barbara, who paid the balance on her college tuition, and the parents of a girl she used to babysit for making her realize that all rich people were not evil. “Now, with my business, I help thousands of women and other members of underrepresented communities to increase their earning potential — and I make millions doing it.”

The big takeaway? Money can do as much good as it can evil. Don’t let fear stop you from pursuing wealth or the kind of paycheck you need to support you and what you want to accomplish in your lifetime. That would be akin to giving up before you even begin.

Understand that more than a high income is needed.
Another mind trap it’s easy to fall into is believing that a high salary will eventually lead to accumulated wealth. Realistically, it probably won’t. Building wealth requires intentionally managing your expenses — and, yes, investing.

With inflation, or the increase in goods and service prices over time, money loses value the longer it sits still. Building wealth, then, requires investing, whether it’s in the stock market, real estate, a business, or another wealth-building avenue.

Business manager Michelle Richburg shared that most of her clients, many of whom are first-generation millionaires, have had to learn the hard way that being intentional about budgeting and investing is essential to build wealth.

Schadeck similarly believes that investing provides an opportunity to level the playing field. “Most people who don’t come from a wealthy or financially literate family fall victim to this. However, the birth of online investment brokerage firms democratized the industry. Investing is for everyone.”

To get past this mental roadblock, Schadeck encourages her clients to imagine life if they didn’t have to work for money. She tells them to hold onto that vision and mirror it in their actions.

What does that look like?

Schadeck tells her clients to start investing as soon as they can afford it — even if that means putting forth a small dollar amount. “A mindset shift happens when you build financial discipline as an investor. You could start with $45,” she said, “and that small investment will build up over time with compound interest. Starting small is the secret, and being consistent is the key.”

Be willing to create your path.

There’s no one-size-fits-all for wealth building. No matter the path, what will make a difference is your consistency.

“You shouldn’t work yourself up trying to attain some made-up standard for how you create your wealth. My plan for building wealth was through entrepreneurship, and I still recommend it as the most sustainable and fastest path forward. However, that’s not what works for everyone. I know folks who’ve built wealth by investing in stocks, through real estate, or by saving,” Rodgers told me.

Whether you aspire to become a millionaire or not, no matter what path you choose, you can benefit from rethinking your relationship with money to increase your chances of making more. Money doesn’t mean happiness, but wealth gives access to options and, potentially, a better quality of life.

Changing your mindset and applying these tips may not make you a millionaire, but adopting them will benefit your wealth-building journey.


Source:
Anne-Lyse Wealth is a writer, personal finance educator, and certified public accountant. She is the founder of Dreamoflegacy.com, a platform

  1. https://hbr.org/2022/03/how-to-build-wealth-when-you-dont-come-from-money

Blogger’s Note: The opinions expressed here are for general informational purposes only. Doing your research and analysis before making any financial decisions is essential. We recommend speaking to an independent advisor if you are unsure how to proceed.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

 

  • The ROIC is the operating profit divided by the invested capital. It tells us how much money the company can generate with new capital by investing in profitable projects.
  • The ROIC basically explains how much shareholder wealth could be generated in the future and is oftentimes highly correlated with a high P/E.

Return on invested capital, or ROIC, is a valuable financial ratio  A high ROIC rewards companies that are able to produce the most net operating profit with the least amount of invested capital.

The basics of ROIC are very simple: it basically tells us how much profits are generated (financials statement) compared to how much capital is invested in the company (balance sheet), provided as a percentage. If the ROIC is 10%, it tells us that the company is generating $10 of profits with each $100 that it invested in the company.

ROIC is net operating profit minus taxes minus dividends divided by invested capital:

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ROIC is net operating profit minus taxes minus dividends divided by invested capital:

ROIC is a measure of how much cash a company gets back for each dollar it invests in its business.

ROIC is a much better predictor of company performance than either return on assets or return on equity. In ROA and ROE, the key metric is net income. Net income often has nothing to do with the profitability of a company. Significant expenses are not included in net income such as interest income, discontinued operations, minority interest, etc. which can make a company look profitable when it is not. Also, ROA measures how much net income a company generates for each dollar of assets on its balance sheet. The problem with using this metric is that companies can carry a lot of assets that have nothing to do with their operations, so ROA isn’t always an accurate measure of profitability.

ROE has similar limitations as ROA. ROE is a measure of company profit compared to shareholder equity. Although this might seem a reasonable metric, many companies use financial leverage to raise ROE. Companies often increase debt levels to repurchase shares, thereby increasing ROE. Using this financial leverage to affect ROE does not accurately reflect a company’s profitability, returns or long-term prospects.

Companies with higher-than-median ROIC (when viewed in conjunction with their overall capital-expenditure and operating-expenditure strategy) will deliver better returns.

Valuation biasedness is one of the most common investing errors.

Some investors prefer picking a stock which is “undervalued” rather than buying a more expensive stock with strong long-term fundamentals. As a consequence, they oftentimes end up with “value traps” which actually destroy shareholder value over time. One of the reasons for this is that they know how to “value” a company (via multiples etc.), but lack the ability to determine the quality of a company and its potential to drive long-term value for shareholders.

The most important metric will tell you whether you are buying a good company that is able to generate strong future shareholder wealth: the return on invested capital (“ROIC”).

Basically, investors should look for a high (+10%) and consistent ROIC. In the long run, the ROIC can be a leading indicator of what an investor may expect from longer term stock returns.


References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/10-stocks-with-high-return-on-invested-capital-and-why-you-should-care-13279076

Small Cap Stock Investing

Small Cap Stocks