Miscalculating Risk: Confusing Scary With Dangerous | Brian Wesbury, First Trust Economics Blog

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“Coronavirus…is the first social media pandemic.”

The coronavirus kills, everyone knows it. But this isn’t the first deadly virus the world has seen, so what happened? Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives travel in real-time right into our hands.

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist

This spreads fear in a way we have never experienced. Drastic and historically unprecedented lockdowns of the economy happened and seemed to be accepted with little question.

We think the world is confusing “scary” with “dangerous.” They are not the same thing. It seems many have accepted as fact that coronavirus is one of the scariest things the human race has ever dealt with. But is it the most dangerous? Or even close?

There are four ways to categorize any given reality. It can be scary but not dangerous, scary and dangerous, dangerous but not scary, or not dangerous and not scary.

Clearly, COVID-19 ranks high on the scary scale. A Google news search on the virus brings up over 1.5 billion news results. To date, the virus has tragically killed nearly 100,000 people in the United States, and more lives will be lost. But on a scale of harmless to extremely dangerous, it would still fall into the category of slightly to mildly dangerous for most people, excluding the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions.

In comparison, many have no idea that heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States, killing around 650,000 people every year, 54,000 per month, or approximately 200,000 people between February and mid-May of this year. This qualifies as extremely dangerous. But most people are not very frightened of it. A Google news search for heart disease brings up around 100 million results, under one-fifteenth the results of the COVID-19 search.

Read more: https://www.ftportfolios.com//blogs/EconBlog/2020/5/26/miscalculating-risk-confusing-scary-with-dangerous

Brian Wesbury is Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors L.P.

Mindset: Creating Your Own Opportunities

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“You either walk inside your own story and own it or you stand outside your story and hustle for your worthiness.” Dr. Brené Brown, Ph.D

Dr. Brené Brown’s research has shown that you are the only person responsible for your life story and its outcomes. Not your mother; not your spouse; and, definitely not your “bestie” are responsible. You , and you alone, must take responsibility and assume accountability for your thoughts, your habits and your behavior that have resulted in the outcome of your current life.

If you want things to happen in your life for the better and want to improve the trajectory of your life, then you need to do something about it. If you just sit about waiting for opportunities to come to you or waiting for the government to come to the rescue, it is likely that they will never happen.

You, and only you, need to make your own opportunities in life if you want to become a success. Set goals and take action to steer your life in the direction you want it to go, and take advantage every chance and opportunity that comes your way.

Yes, it takes courage and accepting that occasionally you will fail and ‘get your ass kicked’ in the process of creating your own opportunities.

Dr. Brown’s research on the power of vulnerability has shown that without the willingness to rumble with one’s vulnerability, you are unlikely to achieve the success and life you desire without a willingness to accept failing and accept ‘getting your ass kicked’ on occasion. Vulnerability is the emotion you experience during times of risk, uncertainty and emotional exposure.

References:

  1. https://moneyinc.com/brene-brown-quotes/

Dr. Brené Brown, Ph.D, is a professor, researcher and lecturer on the subject of vulnerability, best selling author of ‘Daring Greatly‘, and podcast host. She is based at the University of Houston’s Graduate College of Social Work.

Memorial Day 2020 – Moment of Remembrance

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Every year on Memorial Day, the “National Moment of Remembrance” invites Americans to pause at 3 pm (local) for one minute to remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice while serving in the Armed Forces

The National Moment of Remembrance was created to encourage Americans to observe a moment of silence and to remember and reflect on the sacrifices made by so many men and women defending our country and to provide freedom for all.

Learn to enjoy every minute of your life

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“Learn to enjoy every minute of your life. Be happy now. Don’t wait for something outside of yourself to make you happy in the future. Think how really precious is the time you have to spend, whether it’s at work or with your family. Every minute should be enjoyed and savored.”
– Earl Nightingale

Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon featuring bestselling author Dr. Brené Brown.

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The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon featured Professor and New York Times bestselling author Brené Brown.  Dr. Brown shared strategies for handling sudden “effing first times” during the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Brené Brown is a research professor at the University of Houston where she holds the Huffington Foundation – Brené Brown Endowed Chair. She has spent the past two decades studying courage, vulnerability, shame, and empathy. She is the author of five #1 New York Times bestsellers: The Gifts of Imperfection, Daring Greatly, Rising Strong, Braving the Wilderness, and Dare to Lead.

She believes that you have to walk through vulnerability to get to courage, therefore . . . embrace the suck. She tries to be grateful every day and her current motto is “Courage over comfort.”

Moderna and Sorrento Therapeutics’ Vaccines Show Positive Results

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Updated: Friday, 5/22/2020 9:45 am

Moderna, the Massachusetts biotechnology company behind a leading effort to create a coronavirus vaccine, published positive data from its phase one human trial on its potential vaccine. The National Institutes of Health has partnered with Moderna to accelerate development of their vaccine candidate. The company plans to launch a large clinical trial in July aimed at showing whether the vaccine works.

The company reported that in eight patients who had been followed for a month and a half, the vaccine at low and medium doses triggered blood levels of virus-fighting (neutralizing) antibodies that were similar or greater than those found in COVID-19 patients who recovered. That would suggest, but doesn’t prove, that it triggers some level of immunity.

The neutralizing antibody-rich blood plasma donated by patients who have recovered is separately being tested to determine whether it is an effective therapy or preventive measure for Covid-19.

The vaccine uses a new process that is much faster than older methods of making vaccines. The vaccine includes a short segment of messenger RNA (mRNA) that is made in a lab and codes for the viral spike protein. It does not include any form of live virus, and the trial does not expose participants to the virus.

Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NPR that “I think it is conceivable, if we don’t run into things that are, as they say, unanticipated setbacks, that we could have a vaccine that we could be beginning to deploy at the end of this calendar year, December 2020, or into January, 2021”.

Dr. Carlos del Rio, an Emory University professor of medicine told CNBC that a Covid-19 vaccine could be ready for distribution by the end of 2020 but cautioned that it’s an unprecedented timeline. Effectively, “…in a 65-day window, researchers have isolated and identified the virus and begun testing a potential vaccine on humans”, Dr. del Rio said. “That has never, ever occurred before.”

Moderna’s study is being carried out at Atlanta’s Emory University’s Vaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit and the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is funding construction of factories for the 7 most promising Covid-19 vaccine candidates.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-first-results/

https://wapo.st/2XW1P6I

Antibodies are one of the ways the human body fights infection from the coronavirus. Researchers believe testing for covid-19 antibodies can lead to a virus treatment.

Small-cap biotech company Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE) CEO Dr. Henry Ji announced that Sorrento had discovered an anti-SARS-Cov-2 antibody, dubbed STI-1499, that has demonstrated 100% inhibition of COVID-19 in an in vitro infection experiment at a very low antibody concentration and flushed out what’s also known as the virus from the body within four days.

Dr. Ji claims this is a cure, saying, “We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100%. If we have the neutralizing antibody in your body, you don’t need the social distancing. You can open up a society without fear.” This antibody works by blocking the coronavirus’ spike proteins from attaching to a receptor on the surface of health surface called ACE2.

Sorrento said it will continue testing the product in the hopes of getting it approved to treat COVID-19.

References:

  1. https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/sorrento-therapuetics-coronavirus/
  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/moderna-vaccine-researcher-it-mind-boggling-to-be-done-in-2020.html?__source=facebook%7Cmain
  1. https://www.kpwashingtonresearch.org/news-and-events/recent-news/news-2020/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-now-includes-older-people

CDC Guidelines for Reopening 

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Testing, tracking and tracing are required to reopen and for the economy to return to normal before a COVID-19 vaccine

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released 60 pages of guidance for reopening schools, mass transit and non-essential businesses.

The plan outlines three “phase-specific thresholds” for reducing social distancing measures and proposes the use of six “epidemiologic gating” indicators to assess when to move through another phase.

According to CDC’s guidance, “extensive, rapid, and widely available COVID-19 testing is essential”.

The guideline recommends an approach using multiple surveillance systems and epidemiology networks to monitor the progression and impact of COVID-19 spread in the United States.

The CDC expects that the surveillance data will create situational awareness which allows timely monitoring of the spread and intensity of COVID-19 disease, and permits the efficient targeting of public health measures.

Furthermore, surveillance data will allow governmental agencies to understand overall impact and epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 infection across a spectrum of conditions to include:

  • asymptomatic infections
  • symptomatic infection
  • medically attended outpatient and ambulatory visits
  • hospitalizations
  • deaths

The federal health agency warned that some amount of community mitigation will be necessary until a vaccine or an effective drug to treat for COVID-19 is widely available.

The coronavirus has infected more than 1.5 million people and caused almost 100k COVID-19 related deaths in the United States, and resulted in more than 38 million Americans filing unemployment claims.

References:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/php/CDC-Activities-Initiatives-for-COVID-19-Response.pdf

7 Habits to Help Build Your Wealth | U.S. News and World Report

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By Paulina Likos. — U.S.News & World Report May 18, 2020

Successful investors practice these habits to be one step ahead of the market.

Develop a routine of successful investing habits.

When you’re investing for your financial future, practicing successful habits is a fundamental step in constructing a resilient portfolio. It’s evident that in the world of investing, money management can get complex. That’s why having the right habits ingrained in your investment approaches is important in bringing clarity to your decision-making and confidence in your portfolio management. Here are seven habits that will help guide you through investing decisions during unprecedented market movements.

Read more: https://money.usnews.com/investing/portfolio-management/slideshows/habits-to-help-build-your-wealth

Periodically review your investment plan.

Know what your specific financial goals are and develop an investment policy statement. An IPS is a plan that outlines investment objectives and goals for a particular investor drafted by the portfolio manager and their client. This can be a helpful tool to guide portfolio managers on implementing strategies to grow or preserve a client’s investments. Experts advise that clients stick with the initial plan even when drastic market changes occur; however, certain benchmarks should be monitored from time to time. You should examine your risk tolerance and investment plan every six months to ensure you’re on track with your investments when a financial crisis hits. “Changes will likely need to be made in accordance with a well thought out plan that was put in place before the first punch is landed,” says Tim Bain, president of Spark Assessment Management Group.

Invest in what you know.

While experienced investors can try to evaluate the quality of a company, more often than not, it can be difficult to define its overall valuation and understand its trends. Taylor Kovar, CEO of Texas-based Kovar Capital Management, says, “Don’t invest in something you’ve never heard of just because someone online said it was going to make you a millionaire.” It’s best to focus on companies with products that you’re familiar with, that way it will be easier to predict and understand the ebbs and flows of a company and, most importantly, help in managing your portfolio effectively. “Look in your closet [and] kitchen cabinet, and invest in the brand of the products you see,” he says. “This will help you invest in companies you actually enjoy. It’s like you are paying yourself every time you buy their products.”

Stay away from the latest fads.

Investors seeking yield in a low interest rate environment should try to steer clear of fads. This short-term phenomenon is prevalent during market underperformance and tends to be pretty risky. “It is psychologically very difficult to remain true to your patient investing convictions when it seems investors speculating in the latest fad (think cannabis or tech ‘unicorns’) are being rewarded,” says Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska. There are plenty of other ways to diversify your assets rather than putting your money at risk with fads. “One doesn’t need to chase the latest trend to have investment success. Quite the contrary, chasing investment trends can be hazardous to your wealth,” Johnson says.

Be honest with your risk tolerance.

At any stage of your investing journey, it’s important to know if you are a conservative or aggressive investor. Defining risk tolerance is a habit that directly aligns with your financial goals. But sometimes, it can be unclear on how to determine where you lie on the risk spectrum. “Many investors tend to overestimate their level of risk tolerance, which causes them to sell at the worst times,” says Jerry Verseput, president at Veripax Wealth Management in Folsom, California. Market sell-offs like the one in March are good opportunities for investors to assess their feelings honestly as they saw the value of their investments drop.

Keep educating yourself.

An expert tip: Keep reading about how the market is changing. With the pandemic in mind, think about how habits and behaviors are changing in the short term, how that will affect the long term and how future trends might evolve. “What is going to be long-lasting in work and personal life? Do you want to be [investing in] Kodak film or the person investing in digital cameras? Don’t believe what you hear as much as know-how and where to find the facts,” says Peter Creedon, CEO at Crystal Brook Advisors in New York City.

Save for retirement.

Keep investing in your future by adding into your retirement account each month — that’s the power of dollar-cost averaging. Even if some months are fewer than others, allocating some of your income to retirement savings consistently puts long-term investors in a better position toward meeting their future financial goals. You can measure how successful you are as a saver by monitoring your retirement score, an estimate of what your retirement income may look like according to the steps you are taking to save now. This estimation will predict whether you’re on target on meeting your retirement needs or if you need to boost your allocation. It will also give you an idea of how much you will need for retirement and what changes you need to make that happen.

Know when to seek assistance.

Many individual investors try to find “do it yourself” methods for investing. There’s a misconception that successful investors should be monitoring the markets constantly and hold a finance degree, but most experts say the biggest hurdle is knowing when to seek help and how to find the right financial advisor. One tip: Find out what kind of experience the advisor has and which investing strategies they often use. “Make sure in an interview that the advisor shares your investing values and has a well-defined process to develop an investment policy statement for you and your goals,” says Jamie Ebersole, founder and CEO of Ebersole Financial in Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts. “If you and your advisor are not aligned on these important issues, it will make for a very frustrating relationship.”

Setting yourself up for investing success.

  • Periodically review your investment plan.
  • Invest in what you know.
  • Stay away from the latest fads.
  • Be honest about your risk tolerance.
  • Keep educating yourself.
  • Save for retirement.
  • Know when to seek assistance.

Sources:

  1. https://www.entrepreneur.com/slideshow/307635
  2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/portfolio-management/slideshows/habits-to-help-build-your-wealth

Habits of the Wealthy Anyone Can Adopt

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“The reason why someone is either rich or poor can be traced back to daily habits.” Tom Corley, author of “Rich Habits: The Daily Success Habits of Wealthy Individuals”

Replace bad habits and behaviors. 

Aristotle, the 4th Century B.C. Greek philosopher, was attributed as saying, “We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.”

It has been said that nature abhors a vacuum, and the same can be said about habits and behaviors; it’s hard to replace a bad habit or behavior with nothing.

Instead of ceasing a bad financial habit or behavior, investors need to replace them with positive and successful financial habits and behaviors.

Rather than liquidating an account, encourage a replacement behavior like rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, making more incremental portfolio adjustments, or putting in “crash bids” for high-quality stocks that may be trading at a discount.

It’s easy for individuals to be disorganized, without vision, undirected and at the mercy of poor habits. Embracing good habits often takes ficus, effort and desire to improve. Here are eight rich habits:

Habit #1: Exercise.

Exercised an average of 30 minutes, four days a week.

Habit #2: Build relationships.

Keep a running list of positive influencers in your life and regularly connect with them.

Habit #3: Visualize your goals.

Look at your goals—each set with an expiration date and action plan—when you wakes up and before bed. Attack goals with intensity. Keep goals top of mind, and always in sight. This will yield big results.

Habit #4: Read. A lot.

Start reading two books a month—focusing on emotional well-being, leadership, personal finance, and health

Habit #5: Practice affirmations.

Positive mindset provides a huge influence on one’s quality of life. The more you like yourself, the higher your self-esteem and well-being. Practice daily affirmations related to the most important areas of your life, focusing on faith, family and professional career.

The key to successful affirmations is choosing a mantra that’s tied to a dream and a realistic goal that are specific, achievable and true: “I’m working 10 extra hours per week to make $100,000 by next year.”

Habit #6: Volunteer.

There are many reasons to volunteer; use the opportunity to expand your network of like-minded people. It is an opportunities to give back and to create relationships with high-level thinkers.

Habit #7: Confide in a mentor who’s been in your shoes.

The most successful people on earth value mentors who’ve walked in their shoes and made it to the other side.

Habit #8: Practice gratitude.

Meditate or focus for a few minutes each morning and evening on what your grateful: spouse, kids, job and friends, to name a few. This habit helps you pay more attention to what’s going great in your life, puts life in the correct perspective, and keeps you focused on always moving forward with the right attitude.

Henry David Thoreau once said, “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.”

If you want to remain unrewarded, unfulfilled and ultimately unhappy, then continue to accept your habits which are not useful to fulfilling your aspirations, dreams and desires.

Bonus Habit:

“If you want to become really wealthy, you must have your money work for you. The amount you get paid for your personal effort is relatively small compared with the amount you can earn by having your money make money.” John D. Rockefeller

References:

  1. https://grow.acorns.com/7-daily-rich-habits-anyone-can-adopt/
  2. https://grow.acorns.com/money-mistakes-wealthy-people-dont-make/

Safety Advice for Reopening | Wall Street Journal

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As businesses reopen, public-health experts provide guidance on venturing out safely

Public-health experts generally agree that to reopen society safely, communities need widespread testing so officials can be confident that the number of coronavirus cases in the population is low and people who are positive can be quarantined.

Communities also need a system to trace people who have come into contact with positive cases so they too can be isolated, doctors say. “Otherwise you simply let everybody out for a few days and two weeks later have a surge in cases and have to start all over again,” says Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minn.

The U.S. so far largely lacks widespread testing and tracing, he says. “Most communities do not have that capacity.”

So the safest move for most people is still to stay home as much as possible. But if you do go out, there are ways to reduce the risks. Here’s what the experts say:

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/safety-advice-for-reopening-how-to-reduce-your-risks-as-coronavirus-lockdowns-ease-11588510800?mod=theme_coronavirus-ribbon

Sources:

  1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/safety-advice-for-reopening-how-to-reduce-your-risks-as-coronavirus-lockdowns-ease-11588510800?mod=theme_coronavirus-ribbon