Category Archives: Investing

Value Investing: The 4 Ms of Investing

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“The one and only secret to stockpiling is to make sure the value of the business is substantially greater than the price you are paying for it. If you get this right, you cannot help but get rich.” ~ Phil Town

Value investing is a strategy that focuses on investing in individual assets, but not just any asset, assets in wonderful companies or real estate that are priced well below their value, explains Phil Town, founder and CEO of Rule 1 Investing.

Value investing aims to reduce risk by increasing understanding of what you’re investing in order to make wiser investment decisions, and purchasing it at a price that gives you a margin of safety.

  • Value investing is a focused, disciplined and patient strategy, it’s a buy-and-hold for the long-term strategy. You need to be disciplined, patient and keep your focus on long-term profits.
  • It’s about making investing decisions based on the intrinsic value of a company, or what it’s actually worth, which is not to be confused with its sticker or market price.
  • A key component of value investing is buying stocks at the right time, and the right time will present itself if you remain focused, disciplined and patient.
  • The value investor isn’t swayed by the general public’s reaction or market fear. Fear can make people sell too early or miss an excellent opportunity to buy. But, the value investor decides when to buy or sell based on a wonderful company’s intrinsic value, not based on the prevailing fear or greed in the stock market.

Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

Value investors focuses on finding companies that were both undervalued and are what you might call “wonderful companies” with a high potential for growth. Thus, it wasn’t enough for a company to just be undervalued. Instead, the best companies to invest in were ones that were both undervalued and wonderful companies.

To spot undervalued companies, it’s also important to ensure that the companies you are investing in are high-quality and can retain their value throughout the time that you are holding them. Phil Town likes to evaluate whether or not a business is a quality company with what he calls the 4 Ms of Investing: Meaning, Management, Moat, and Margin of Safety.

If you can check off each of these 4 Ms for a company you are considering investing in, it will be well worth your while.

Meaning

The company should have meaning to you. This is important because if it has meaning to you, you understand what it does and how it works and makes money, and will be more likely to do the research necessary to understand all elements of the business that affect its value.

Management

The company needs to have solid management. Perform a background check on the leaders in charge of guiding the company, paying close attention to the integrity and success of their prior decisions to determine if they are good, solid leaders that will take the company in the right direction.

Moat

The company should have a moat. A moat is something that separates them from the competition and, thus, protects them. If a company has patented technology, control over the market, an impenetrable brand, or a product or service customers would never switch from, it has a moat.

Margin of Safety

In order to guarantee good returns, you must buy a company at a price that gives you a margin of safety. For Rule #1 investors, 50% is the margin of safety to look for, explains Town. This provides a buffer that makes it possible to still experience gains even if problems arise. This is arguably the most important.

These 4Ms draw heavily from the rules of value investing. Both sets of rules dictate that you must buy a company below its actual value in order to make a profit. That’s the bottom line.

Even if a company is in a great position today, it needs to have future potential to triple or 10x your investment. The market cap is a reflection of what you would pay today to own a piece of the company. But the market price is not the true value of the company.

You, as a value investor, should rely on the “intrinsic value” to determine whether a company is a worthy value investment. Then, you can use the market cap to help you determine if the company is on sale and if it has the growth potential.

References:

  1. https://wp.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/value-investing/
  2. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/financial-control/market-capitalization/

Phil Town is an investment advisor, hedge fund manager, and 3x NY Times Best-Selling Author. Phil’s goal is to help you learn how to invest and achieve financial independence.

Recession and Investing

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A recession is a period of economic contraction. Recessions are typically accompanied by falling stock markets, a rise in unemployment, a drop in income and consumer spending, and increased business failures. ~ SoFi

Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, talks recession.

A recession describes a contraction in economic activity, often defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of decline in the nation’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially declares recessions, takes a broader view — including indicators like wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, employment, and real income.

Recessions tend to have a wide-ranging economic impact, affecting businesses, jobs, everyday individuals, and investment returns. But what are recessions exactly, and what long-term repercussions do they tend to have on personal financial situations? Here’s a deeper dive into these economic contractions.

It’s worth remembering some investments do better than others during recessions. Recessions are generally bad news for highly leveraged, cyclical, and speculative companies. These companies may not have the resources to withstand a rocky market.

By contrast, the companies that have traditionally survived and even outperformed during a downturn are companies with very little debt and strong cash flow. If those companies are in traditionally recession-resistant sectors, like essential consumer goods, utilities, defense contractors, and discount retailers, they may deserve closer consideration.

During a recession, it’s important to remember two key tenets that will help you stick to your investing strategy.

  1. The first is: While markets change, your financial goals don’t.
  2. The second is: Paper losses aren’t real until you cash out.

The first tenet refers to the fact that investors go into the market because they want to achieve certain financial goals. Those goals are often years or decades in the future. But as noted above, the typically shorter-term nature of a recession may not ultimately impact those longer-term financial plans. So, most investors want to avoid changing their financial goals and strategies on the fly just because the economy and financial markets are declining.

The second tenet is a caveat for the many investors who watch their investments — even their long-term ones — far too closely. While markets can decline and account balances can fall, those losses aren’t real until an investor sells their investments. If you wait, it’s possible you’ll see some of those paper losses regain their value.

So, investors should generally avoid panicking and making rash decisions to sell their investments in the face of down markets. Panicked and emotional selling may lead you into the trap of “buying high and selling low,” the opposite of what most investors are trying to do.

Stay the course and stick to your financial plan to survive a recession!

Source: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/investing-during-a-recession/

6 Common Causes of Recessions

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“A soft landing is impossible. The economy is going to go into a recession fast. You’re going to see the economy just screech to a halt. That’s what the Fed needs to do to get inflation down.” ~ Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

The causes of recessions can vary greatly, according to the FinTech company Sofi. Generally speaking, recessions happen when something causes a loss of confidence among businesses and consumers. The recession that occurred in 2020 could be considered an outlier, as it was mainly sparked by an external global health event rather than internal economic causes.

The mechanics behind a typical recession work like this: consumers lose confidence and stop spending, driving down demand for goods and services. As a result, the economy shifts from growth to contraction. This can, in turn, lead to job losses, a slowdown in borrowing, and a continued decline in consumer spending.

According to SoFi, here are some common causes of recessions:

1. High Interest Rates

High interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, limiting the amount of money available to spend and invest. In the past, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar or prevent the economy from overheating, which has, at times, resulted in a recession.

For example, the 1970s saw a period of stagnant growth and inflation that came to be known as “stagflation.” To fight it, the Fed raised interest rates throughout the decade, which created the recessions between 1980 and 1982.

2. Falling Housing Prices

If housing demand falls, so does the value of people’s homes. Homeowners may no longer be able to tap their house’s equity. As a result, homeowners may have less money in their pockets to spend, reducing consumption in the economy.

3. Stock Market Crash

A stock market crash occurs when a stock market index drops severely. If it falls by at least 20%, it enters what is known as a “bear market.” Stock market crashes can result in a recession since individual investors’ net worth declines, causing them to reduce spending because of a negative wealth effect. It can also cut into confidence among businesses, causing them to spend and hire less.

As stock prices drop, businesses may also face less access to capital and may produce less. They may have to lay off workers, whose ability to spend is curtailed. As this pattern continues, the economy may contract into recession.

4. Reduction in Real Wages

Real wages describe how much income an individual makes when adjusted for inflation. In other words, it represents how far consumer income can go in terms of the goods and services it can purchase.

When real wages shrink, a recession can begin. Consumers can lose confidence when they realize their income isn’t keeping up with inflation, leading to less spending and economic slowdown.

5. Bursting Bubbles

Asset bubbles are to blame for some of the most significant recessions in U.S. history, including the stock market bubble in the 1920s, the tech bubble in the 1990s, and the housing bubble in the 2000s.

An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate, quickly rises without actual value in the asset to justify the rise.

As prices rise, new investors jump in, hoping to take advantage of the rapidly growing market. Yet, when the bubble bursts — for example, if demand runs out — the market can collapse, eventually leading to recession.

6. Deflation

Deflation is a widespread drop in prices, which an oversupply of goods and services can cause. This oversupply can result in consumers and businesses saving money rather than spending it. This is because consumers and businesses would rather wait to purchase goods and services that may be lower in price in the future. As demand falls and people spend less, a recession can follow due to the contraction in consumption and economic activity.

How Do Recessions Affect You?

Businesses may have fewer customers when the economy begins to slow down because consumers have less real income to spend. So they institute layoffs as a cost-cutting measure, which means unemployment rates rise.

As more people lose their jobs, they have less to spend on discretionary items, which means fewer sales and lower revenue for businesses. Individuals who can keep their jobs may choose to save their money rather than spend it, leading to less revenue for businesses.

Investors may see the value of their portfolios shrink if a recession triggers stock market volatility. Homeowners may also see a decline in their home’s equity if home values drop because of a recession.

When consumer spending declines, corporate earnings start to shrink. If a business doesn’t have enough resources to weather the storm, it may have to file for bankruptcy.

Governments and central banks will often do what they can to head off recession through monetary or fiscal stimulus to boost employment and spending. “It’s hard to not underestimate the huge impact that the response to COVID-19 had on all assets. We pumped so much liquidity into the markets it was crazy, we had never seen anything like it. We were throwing trillions of dollars around like matchsticks,” said Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, can provide monetary policy stimulus. The Fed can lower interest rates, which reduces the cost of borrowing. As more people borrow, there’s more money in circulation and more incentive to spend and invest.

Source: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-a-recession/

Best Investing and Trading Advice

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  1. “History repeats because of the weakness of human nature. The greed for quick fortunes has cost the public countless millions of dollars. Every experienced stock trader knows that overtrading is his greatest weakness, but he continues to allow this weakness to be his ruin. There must be a cure for this greatest weakness in trading, and that cure is STOP LOSS ORDERS. The weakest point must be overcome and the stop loss order is the cure for overtrading.” ~ WD Gann
  2. The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.” ~ Philip Fisher
  3. “Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.” ~ Michael Covel
  4. “I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.” ~ Richard Dennis
  5. “Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they are playing against the market, but the market doesn´t care. You’re really playing against yourself.” ~ Martin Schwarz
  6. “Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.” ~ Seth Klarman

References:

  1. https://www.t3live.com/blog/2017/12/01/best-trading-investing-quotes/

Investing Lessons Learned

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“To maximize returns, buy stocks when everyone hates them and sell them when everyone loves them. This is easy in theory, but brutally difficult in practice.” ~ Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi is a financial educator and he has been saving and investing for 18+ years. From his experiences, below he shares 10 painful lessons he had to learn and sometimes relearn the hard way:

1. You don’t need leverage.

Margin and options are fun on the way up and BRUTAL on the way down. Many investors have lost more than 100% on investment before. Why? Leverage.

Buffett said it best:

2. Optimize for longevity, not upside

Compound interest is the most powerful wealth-building force that exists. But, it only works if you SURVIVE long enough for it to work.

You must avoid investing to optimize for upside potential. Instead, you should follow the barbell method to optimize for longevity.

3. High conviction DOES NOT = correct

If you convinced yourself that a certain stock could only go up. you might be right on some. On others, you may lost significant value.

Conviction is useful, but just because you think you are right doesn’t mean that you are right.

Allocate accordingly

4. Stock prices and business results (and intrinsic value) are 0% correlated in the short-term and 100% correlated in the long-term

Do not sell future mega-winners because their stocks were down (dumb).

Instead of watching the stock, instead focus on the fundamentals of the business.

5. Not having a system

Do not try to keep everything in my head, which was dumb (and impossible).

Instead, use checklists, journals, or watchlist, which are invaluable free tools.

6. Not understanding the P/E ratio

Do not pass on high P/E ratio stocks that went up big and buy low P/E ratio stocks that went down big.

Why? It’s about understanding the P/E ratio’s flaws.

Now, P/E only works in stage 4. It doesn’t work in stages 1, 2, 3 or 5

7. Panic selling and panic buying

Emotions have caused many investors to panic buy hype stocks and panic sell future mega-winners.

It’s easy to say you’ll be greedy when others are fearful, and visa-versa.

It’s hard to actually do it.

8. Study history

Human nature is remarkably consistent. The same forces that drove markets 100+ years still exist in all of us today.

There’s always a smart-sounded reason to sell and it’s important to understand that.

9. Don’t focused on what you can’t control

Do not follow the news closely, or watch for clues to predict the market.

This will be time poorly spent. Macro factors matter, but you have no control over them.

It essential you focus far more on what you can control.

10. Not changing your mind

This one is REALLY hard, but it’s necessary to do well.

Changing your mind is hard. Admitting you’re wrong is hard.

But, @JeffBezos said it best:

Learning invaluable investing lessons, especially from the mistakes of others, is an essential part of becoming a more successful long-term investor.

References:

  1. https://bookshop.org/shop/Feroldi
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/the-critical-money-and-investing-lessons-i-wish-my-younger-self-had-understood-11651762064
  3. http://mindset.brianferoldi.com

How to Invest for Beginners: Peter Lynch

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Investing can be for anybody, but is certainly not for everybody.

Only a handful of professional investors can compare to the legendary Peter Lynch. He rose to investing stardom in 1977 when he was appointed the fund manager of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund.

When Lynch took over, the fund had around $18 million in assets under management. After 13 years at the helm, Lynch increased the fund’s size by almost a thousand-fold.

In 1990, the Magellan Fund, and its over $14 billion in assets under management, became the biggest mutual fund in the world. At times, the fund held over 1,000 different stocks in its portfolio. Also, there was a period when it had an average annual return of 29.9%.

It doesn’t matter if you don’t know anything about investing, since there are actions a beginning investor can take to learn how to invest and how to manage their money and finances. One of the most important actions for new investors is to get started early.

Investing doesn’t have to be hard. Yet, it’s important to learn the basics of investing and what type of investments are the best depending on your financial situation and the amount of money you want to make. 

When you make it a point to save money, you are protecting yourself against life’s unforeseen difficulties. And when you invest, if you choose to do so, you will have a chance to earn much more than you would have expected to, growing your money exponentially.

Time Period

Long-term investing is one of the key concepts in Lynch’s and many of the most successful investor’s investment philosophy. Lynch argued that the value of stocks was rather easy to predict over a 10 to 20-year period, while short term predictions were pretty much useless and effectively impossible to make accurately due to market volatility.

Source: Brian Feroldi

Therefore, he strongly urged investors to always select stocks of companies that they understand, believe in and be patient to wait for them to go up over a long period of time rather than selling for profits.

According to research, if you invest a $1,000 every year on the highest day for a period of 30 years, you can expect a 10.6% annualized return. On the other hand, if you invest the same sum on the lowest day of the year, you can expect an 11.7% compounded return over the same period.

Peter Lynch also encouraged the reader to look for the tenbagger stocks.

A tenbagger is a stock that rises in value 10-fold or 1,000%. He advises against selling when the stock goes up 40% or even 100%. Instead, he urges investors to hold onto them for the long-term, despite the common trend of many investors to take profits by selling appreciated stocks.

References:

  1. https://finmasters.com/one-up-on-wall-street-review/
  2. https://www.benzinga.com/money/peter-lynch-books

Burton G. Malkiel: Index Funds and Bond Substitutes

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Burton Gordon Malkiel, the Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics, has been responsible for a revolution in the field of investing and money management. And he’s also author of the widely influential investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

His book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, first published in 1973, used research on asset returns and the performance of asset managers to recommend that all investors would be wise to use passively managed total market “index” funds as the core of their investment portfolios. An index fund simply buys and holds the securities available in a particular investment market.

There were no publicly available index funds when Malkiel in a Random Walk first advanced this recommendation, and investment professionals loudly decried the idea. Today, indexing has been adopted around the world.

Additionally, Malkiel believes that investors “probably needs to take a bit more risk on that stable part of the portfolio”. One asset class that he recommends, instead of low yielding bonds, is preferred stocks. There are good-quality preferred stocks, which are basically fixed-income investments. They’re not as safe as bonds. Bonds have a prior claim on corporate earnings.

According to Malkiel, investors need some part of the portfolio to be in safe, bond like assets–such as preferred stocks, or what he calls bond substitutes, for at least some part of their portfolio.

He suggest a preferred stock of like JPMorgan Chase. He doesn’t think you’re taking an enormous amount of risk. The banks now have much more capital. They are constrained by the Federal Reserve in terms of what they can do and buying back stock and increasing their dividends. And with a portfolio of diversified, high-quality preferred stocks, one can earn a 5% yield.

And if one wants to take on even a bit more risk, there are high-quality common stocks that also yield 5% or more: a stock like IBM, which has a very well-covered dividend, yields over 5%; AT&T– you can think of basically blue chips and they might play a role.

Regarding diversification, investors do need some income-producing assets in their portfolio. But his recommendation is that you think in the diversification of not simply bonds, but maybe some bond substitutes. However, there is a trade-off; there is going to be a little more risk in the portfolio. And one needs to recognize that there is not a perfect solution.

But part of the solution for an investor, especially a retired investor, must be to revisit their spending rule. If one is worried about outliving one’s money, then the spending rate has to be less. In part, it means maybe a bit more belt-tightening.

There’s no easy answer to this. Malkiel wished there were an easy answer that there’s a riskless way to solve the problem. But there isn’t. In terms of wanting more safety, one ought to be saving more before retirement, and maybe the answer is to be spending less in retirement. Thus, on a relative-value basis, things like preferred stocks, and some of the blue chips that have good dividends, and dividends that have been rising over time, ought to play at least some role in the portfolio.

In this age of “financial repression”, where safe bonds yield next to nothing, an asset allocation of 40% bonds is too high, states Malkiel. Now, of course, there’s not just one figure that fits all. For some people it might be 60-40 would be OK. But, in general, the asset allocations that Malkiel recommended have a much larger equity allocation and a much smaller bond allocation. And if you look at the 12th edition of Random Walk book, you’ll find that he has generally reduced the fixed-income allocation and increased the equity allocation–different amounts for different age groups,

References:

  1. https://dof.princeton.edu/about/clerk-faculty/emeritus/burton-gordon-malkiel
  2. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/995453/burton-malkiel-i-am-not-a-big-fan-of-esg-investing

Peter Lynch’s five rules to investing

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“If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the car pool or on the commuter train—and succumbing to the social pressure, often buys.” Peter Lynch

Legendary American investor Peter Lynch shared five rules everyone can follow when investing in the stock market.

Within his 13-year tenure, Lynch drove the Fidelity Magellan Fund to a 2,800% gain – averaging a 29.2% annual return. It is the best 20-year return of any mutual fund in history. He is considered the greatest money manager of all time, and he beat the market for so long through buying the right stocks.

No one can promise you Lynch’s record, but you can learn a lot from him, and you don’t need a billion-dollar portfolio to follow his rules.

Lynch’s five rules for any investor in the stock market are listed below.

1. Know what you own

The most important rule for Lynch is that investors should know and understand the company they own.

“I’m amazed at how many people that own stocks can’t tell you, in a minute or less, why they own that particular stock,” said Lynch.

Investors need to understand the company’s operations and what they offer well enough to explain it to a 10-year-old in two minutes or less. If you can’t, you will never make money.

Lynch believes that If the company is too complicated to understand and how it adds value, then don’t buy it. “I made 10 to 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts because I could understand it,” he said.

2. Don’t invest purely on other’s opinions

People do research in all aspects of their lives, but for some reason, they fail to do the same when deciding on what stock to buy.

People research the best car to buy, look at reviews and compare specs when buying electronics, and get travel guides when travelling to new places – But they don’t do the same due diligence when buying a stock.

“So many investors get a tip on a stock travelling on the bus, and they’ll put half of their life savings in it before sunset, and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market,” Lynch said.

He added that investors should never just buy a stock because someone says it is a great buy. Do your research.

3. Focus on the company behind the stock

There is a method to the stock market, and the company behind the stock will determine where that stock goes.

“Stocks aren’t lottery tickets, there’s no luck involved. There’s a company behind every stock; if a company does well, the stock will do well – It’s not complicated,” Lynch said.

He advises that investors look at companies that have good growth prospects and is trading at a reasonable price using financial data such as:

• Balance Sheet – No story is complete without a balance sheet check. The balance sheet will tell you about the company’s financial structure, how much debt and cash it has, and how much equity its shareholders have. A company with a lot of cash is great, as it can buy more stock, make acquisitions or pay off its debt.

  • Year-by-year earnings growth
  • Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) – relative to historical and industry averages.
  • Debt-equity ratio
  • Dividends and payout ratios
  • Price-to-free cash flow ratio
  • Return on invested capital

4. Don’t try to predict the market

Trying to time the market is a losing battle. One thing to keep in mind is that you aren’t going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business long-term, even if the share price decreases slightly after you buy.

Instead of trying to time the bottom and throwing all your money in at once, a better strategy is gradually building your stock positions over time.

This approach spreads out your investments and allows you to buy into the market at different times at varying prices that ideally balance each other out versus investing one lump sum all at once.

This way, if you’re wrong and the stock continues to fall, you’ll be able to take advantage of the new lower prices without missing out.

“Trying to time or predict the stock market is a total waste of time because no one can do it,” Lynch said.

Corollary: Buy with a Margin of Safety: No matter how careful an investor is in valuing a company, she can never eliminate the risk of being wrong. Margin of Safety is a tool for minimizing the odds of error in an investor’s favor. Margin of Safety means never overpaying for a stock, however attractive the investment opportunity may seem. It means purchasing a company at a market price 30% or more below its intrinsic value.

5. Market crashes are great opportunities

Knowing the stock market’s history is a must if you want to be successful.

What you learn from history is that the market goes down, and it goes down a lot. In 93 years, the market has had 50 declines; once every two years, the market declines by 10%. of those 50 declines, 15 have declined by 25% or more – otherwise known as a bear market – roughly every six years.

“All you need to know is that the market is going to go down sometimes, and it’s good when it happens,” Lynch said.

“For example, if you like a stock at $14 and it drops to $6 per share, that’s great. If you understand a company, look at its balance sheet, and it’s doing well, and you’re hoping to get to $22 a share with it, $14 to $22 is terrific, but $6 to $22 is exceptional,” he added.

Declines in the stock market will always happen, and you can take advantage of them if you understand the company and know what you own.

References:

  1. https://dailyinvestor.com/finance/1921/peter-lynchs-five-rules-to-investing/

16 Rules for Investment Success – Sir John Templeton

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“I never ask if the market is going to go up or down because I don’t know, and besides it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: ‘Where is the one that is lowest-priced in relation to what I believe it’s worth?’ Forty years of experience have taught me you can make money without ever knowing which way the market is going.” ~ John Templeton

Sir John Templeton’s “16 rules for investment success” remain relevant in today’s volatile economic environment as they have for several decades.

Sir John Templeton was an investor and mutual fund pioneer who became a billionaire by pioneering the use of globally diversified mutual funds. He is known for searching far and wide for investments across countries and not restricting investments to UK or USA.

One of Templeton’s most noteworthy examples of investment success occurred when he bought stocks in 1939.

During the opening weeks of World War II and in response to the stock market crashing, Templeton bought 100 shares in stocks which were selling for $1 or less. Four out of the 104 companies in which he invested turned out worthless while he realized significant returns on the other companies.

John Templeton’s 16 rules for investment success include:

  1. Invest for maximum total real return. Templeton advises investors to be aware of how taxes and inflation erode returns and to avoid putting too much into fixed-income securities, which often fail to retain the purchasing power of the dollars spent to obtain them.
  2. Invest – don’t trade or speculate. Templeton warns that over-action and too much trading can eat into potential profits and eventually results in steady losses.
  3. Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment. No one investment vehicle, whether it’s bonds, stocks, or futures, works best all the time. That being said, Templeton notes that the S&P 500 has “outperformed inflation, Treasury bills, and corporate bonds in every decade except the ’70s.”
  4. Buy low. While this advice might seem obvious, it often means that you’ll have to go against the crowd. When equities are popular and in demand, their prices are generally higher. Opportunities to buy low usually only come when when people are pessimistic about the market’s performance.
  5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks. Templeton advocates identifying sales leaders, technological leaders, and trusted brands when selecting stocks to ensure a company is well-positioned and well-rounded before purchasing its stock.
  6. Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook. Templeton emphasizes that individual stocks determine the market and not the other way around. The market can disconnect with economic reality.
  7. Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers. There are several advantages to portfolio diversification: you’re less likely to endure a major loss due to a freak event that devastates one company, and you also have a larger selection of investment vehicles from which to choose.
  8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you. Sir John insists that you must be aware of what you’re buying. In the case of stocks, you are either buying earnings (if you expect growth) or assets (if you expect an acquisition).
  9. Aggressively monitor your investments. Templeton notes that “there are no stocks that you can buy and forget.” Markets are in a state of perpetual flux, and change instantaneously. If you’re not aware of the changes, you’re probably losing money.
  10. Don’t panic. Even if everyone around you is selling, sometimes the best idea is to take a breath and hold on to your portfolio. In the event of a sell-off, only divest if you have identified more attractive stocks to pick up.
  11. Learn from your mistakes. The stock market is a lot like university: it can cost a lot of money to learn a few lessons. So don’t make the same mistakes twice. Learn from them, and they’ll turn into profit-making opportunities the next time.
  12. Begin with a prayer. Templeton believes this helps a person clear his or her mind and make fewer errors during a trading session or in stock selection.
  13. Outperforming the market is a difficult task. This rules, in effect, is a reality check. The largest hedge funds produce some extremely volatile returns from year to year, and some have produced negative returns. And those are the experts!
  14. An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand all the questions. “Pride comes before the fall.” Likewise, overconfidence or certainty in one’s investment style or knowledge of the market will inevitably end in failure. 
  15. There’s no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment, on a tip, or on an IPO just to ‘save’ commission.
  16. Do not be fearful or negative too often. While there have been plenty of bumps along the road, Templeton acknowledges that for “100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks.” In his opinion, globalization is bullish for equities, and he thinks stocks will continue to “go up…and up…and up.”

His lessons are the end result of a lifetime of knowledge, and include advice on stock selection, going against market sentiment, keeping your cool, and putting investing in perspective.

References:

  1. https://www.caporbit.com/16-rules-for-investment-success-john-templeton/
  2. https://www.businessinsider.com/templetons-16-rules-for-investment-success-2013-1
  3. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/157687/sir-john-templetons-16-rules-for-investment-success

How to Protect Your Money from Inflation

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Inflation causes your money to be worth less over time. To hedge against inflation, you need to invest your money in assets.

Inflation in the U.S. is at the highest rate in four decades.

Inflation decreases the purchasing power of your dollars over time. Here are steps you can take to protect the purchasing power of your dollars, according to Forbes.

  • Trim your expenses. To minimize the impact of inflation, review your spending and identify areas to reduce or eliminate completely.
  • Wait to pay off low-interest debt. Paying off debt is usually good, but you may want to hold off on making extra payments if you have low-interest debt. Your debt becomes less expensive due to inflation. Use the money for other purposes—like paying off higher-interest loans.
  • Invest your money. Inflation causes your savings to be worth less over time. To hedge against inflation, you need to invest your money. If the prospect of investing is scary, consider a diversified portfolio of broad market index funds to lower your risk levels and costs.

Getting inflation under control

The Federal Reserve is tasked with keeping inflation at a healthy level by adjusting the nation’s money supply and interest rates.

When the economy is expanding too quickly and inflation rises, the Fed will typically raise interest rates or sell assets to reduce the amount of cash in circulation. These actions tend to reduce demand within the economy and can push the economy into recession.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-inflation-good-or-bad/