National Debt and Fiscal Deficits are Dire and Critical

The current U.S. National Debt is over $35 trillion and growing.

To pay for annual fiscal budget deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities. The national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with associated interest owed to the investors who purchased these securities.

U.S. Annual Federal Tax revenue or receipts are approximately $5 trillion. 

U.S. federal tax revenue is made up of the total tax receipts received by the government each year. Most of it is paid either through income taxes or payroll taxes. The rest is made up of estate taxes, excise and customs duties, and interest on the Federal Reserve’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

The U.S. government estimates its total revenue to be $5.49 trillion for fiscal year 2025.

Per the White House’s projections, income taxes are slated to contribute $2.6 trillion. Another $2.2 trillion should come from payroll taxes. This includes $1.3 trillion for Social Security, $399 billion for Medicare, and $56 billion for unemployment insurance. Corporate taxes would add another $467 billion.

U.S. Annual Fiscal Deficit is running approximately $2 trillion. 

A fiscal deficit occurs when the federal government’s spending exceeds its revenues. The federal government has spent $1.83 trillion more than it has collected in fiscal year (FY) 2024.

To pay for government programs while operating under a deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling U.S. Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities. The national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with associated interest owed to investors who purchased these securities.

National Debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is currently 120%, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve. 

The debt-to-GDP ratio compares a country’s sovereign debt to its total economic output for the year. Its output is measured by gross domestic product (GDP).

U.S. Government Revenue (or Tax receipts) per GDP is 29%.

How much national debt is too much and is there a tipping point at which it becomes a big problem for a country?

One way to gauge the size of a country’s national debt is to compare it with the size of its economy—the ratio of debt to GDP. (GDP serves as a measure of an economy’s overall size and health, measuring the total market value of all of a country’s goods and services produced in a given year.)

Ballooning National Debt

After years of steadily increasing deficits and debt, federal spending has skyrocketed, taking U.S. debt to levels not seen since World War II.

According to the U.S. Treasury, the national debt is approaching $35 trillion.

What does that mean for the country, its citizens and the future?

Many economists warn that a rapidly growing debt load could diminish U.S. economic growth, restrict government spending on vital programs (e.g., military, Medicare, Social Security, etc.) and increase the likelihood of financial crises.

Currently, interest payments on the National debt consumes a quarter of the annual fiscal budget.

High debt-to-GDP ratios can slow down economic growth, leading to lower wages, increased inflation, and higher taxes.

While the National debt of $34 trillion figure seems daunting, it’s essential to consider inflation. As the economy grows, the debt naturally increases. However, addressing the fiscal budget deficit remains crucial.

The national debt indirectly affects citizens through policies, taxes, and government spending. It influences interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability.

Over the long-term, managing the debt sustainably is vital for future generations. Balancing spending, revenue, and economic growth will determine the country’s financial health.


References:

  1. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-national-debt-dilemma

FY2024 Government Shutdown Averted

President Biden has signed H.R. 5860, the continuing resolution to fund the government through November 2023, into law. Averting a government shutdown. 

Funding for the government would have run out at the end of the fiscal year 2023 at midnight Saturday.

However, on the final day of fiscal year 2023, the Senate unanimously agreed to take up the House-passed short-term funding bill on Saturday night, effectively ending the chance of a government shutdown this weekend and ”kicking the proverbial can” on big funding fights into November. The continuing resolution (CR) passed the House, 335–91, and the Senate, 88–9.

President Biden signed into law the 45-day stopgap funding measure, averting a government shutdown that would have been triggered at midnight.

Government shutdowns can cost the American economy billions of dollars as a wide range of federal functions are suspended. Essential workers, such as members of the military and air traffic controllers, continue to work without pay, but hundreds of thousands of others are furloughed.