Memorial Day 2024

On Memorial Day we honor all U.S. military service members who have sacrificed their lives to serve our country.

Memorial Day is a day of remembrance. We remember those service members who are no longer with us. We remember what they fought for. We remember the sacrifice they made while serving our country. Forever and always, we honor their legacy.

But it’s also an important moment to let those service members who continue to put their lives on the line know we appreciate their service.

Stan Druckenmiller on AI

Stan Druckenmiller is considered one of the greatest investors in U.S. history because his hedge fund returned an average of 30% annually for 30 years.

Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors in American history.

Drunkenmiller’s hedge fund, Duquesne Capital Management, returned an average of 30% annually over three decades without a single down year. Druckenmiller closed the hedge fund in 2010 and he now manages his personal wealth through the Duquesne Family Office.

He seeks leading companies in cutting-edge industries and technologies.

AI in the short-term is overhyped; in the long-term is under-hyped!

Coupang (NYSE: CPNG) is the leading e-commerce company in South Korea. It has stood out in the country with its end-to-end logistics network that can deliver anywhere in the country within hours. Additionally, it competes in e-commerce in Taiwan and operates a video streaming service.

Since the stock’s 2021 IPO, revenue has grown by double digits. The stock is down more than 50% since the IPO. Still, he has steadily added shares since then, and it makes up 11% of his portfolio. Analysts forecast 15% earnings growth this year and 110% in 2025. Also, at a $41 billion market capitalization, it is a small fraction of Amazon’s $1.9 trillion size. That could give investors a second chance for those who missed the opportunity in Amazon.

As Coupang reinforces its dominance in South Korean e-commerce and develops new revenue sources, Druckenmiller could eventually be rewarded for his patience.

Perplexity is an AI-powered search engine that has been making waves:

Perplexity is a young startup that has achieved unicorn status by raising significant funding. Led by Aravind Srinivas, the company focuses on building an entirely AI-native search experience from scratch.

Its mission is to unlock the power of knowledge through information discovery and sharing. Unlike existing search engines like Google and Microsoft, which have incorporated AI models into their products, Perplexity has taken a different approach.

Perplexity’s “knowledge discovery” platform combines web indexes with various AI models to provide direct answers to user queries. The experience is entirely conversational, eliminating the need to click on multiple links or compare answers.

Leading enterprises such as Zoom, HP, and Databricks are already using Perplexity’s B2B plan and saving significant time at work.

In summary, Perplexity’s innovative approach to AI-native search and its rapid growth have positioned it as a major player in the search engine landscape.

Perplexity is not currently publicly traded. The company is still relatively young, having been founded by Andy Konwinski, Denis Yarats, Johnny Ho, and Aravind Srinivas. Srinivas, who previously worked at OpenAI, is now Perplexity’s CEO. While the company has had three funding rounds, it typically takes several years for even promising companies to transition from founding to becoming publicly traded


References:

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/technology/perplexity-search-ai-google.html

Best Small Cap AI Stocks to Buy and Hold

The best artificial intelligence small-cap stocks for long-term investment

Sources
The 5 best small cap AI companies to buy now – MarketBeat

Here are some of the best small-cap artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to consider for long-term investment:

SoundHound AI (SOUN) is a leading voice AI company providing conversational intelligence solutions. It has strong revenue growth, with Q1 2024 revenue up 73% year-over-year. SoundHound is well-positioned in the rapidly growing voice AI market and has a median analyst price target of $7, representing significant upside potential from its current price around $5.40,

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) applies AI to drug discovery and development. With a market cap around $2 billion, it is one of the larger small-cap AI stocks. Recursion’s unique AI platform for mapping cellular biology could provide an edge in developing novel treatments across many disease areas.

Duos Technologies (DUOT) provides AI-based vision technologies for rail inspection, logistics, and other industrial markets. Its rail inspection business is growing rapidly, and Duos has opportunities to expand into trucking and other transportation sectors leveraging its AI capabilities.

BigBear.ai (BBAI) offers AI-powered decision intelligence solutions for supply chains, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. While facing recent challenges, BigBear.ai projects 25-39% revenue growth in 2024 and has made acquisitions to drive future growth in these key AI verticals.

CXApp (CXAI) provides an AI-powered workplace app for communications, meetings, and security. It has shown strong revenue growth, turning free cash flow positive in 2023, and analysts view it as an attractive small-cap AI play with room for further expansion.

The key points are that small-cap AI stocks offer higher potential returns but also higher risk and volatility compared to large established companies. A diversified portfolio and long investing horizon are advisable to manage the risks of this emerging, high-growth sector.

 

Discounted Cash Flow

The concept of discounted cash flow (DCF) and how it relates to investing.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a powerful valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. Here’s how it works:

Future Cash Flows: DCF analysis considers the expected future cash flows generated by an investment. These cash flows can include revenue, profits, dividends, or any other financial inflows.

Time Value of Money (TVM): The core idea behind DCF is the concept of the time value of money. Essentially, a dollar received today is worth more than the same dollar received in the future. Why? Because you can invest that dollar today and earn returns on it.

Conversely, if you receive a dollar in the future, you miss out on potential investment opportunities.

Discounting: DCF “discounts” these future cash flows back to their present value using a discount rate. The discount rate accounts for the opportunity cost of not investing that money elsewhere. It reflects the risk associated with the investment.
Present Value Calculation: The present value of expected future cash flows is calculated as follows:

Present Value=Future Cash Flow(1+Discount Rate)Time PeriodPresent Value=(1+Discount Rate)Time PeriodFuture Cash Flow​

  • Future Cash Flow: The expected cash flow in a specific time period.
  • Discount Rate: The rate used to discount the future cash flow.
  • Time Period: The number of years until the cash flow occurs.

Decision Making: If the DCF value calculated is higher than the current cost of the investment, it suggests that the opportunity could result in positive returns and may be worthwhile. Conversely, if the calculated value is lower, more research and analysis may be needed before proceeding.

Estimations and Risks: DCF relies on estimations of future cash flows, which can be challenging. Additionally, the choice of discount rate affects the outcome. Companies often use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as the discount rate because it considers the return expected by shareholders11.

Remember that DCF is a valuable tool, but it’s essential to make informed assumptions about future cash flows and select an appropriate discount rate. Always consider the risks associated with any investment decision.

Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks

Some of the best artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to consider for long-term investment, based on the search results:

Nvidia (NVDA) is a leading AI stock and dominant player in the AI chip market with its powerful GPUs. It provides a full platform of hardware, software, and services for AI applications. Nvidia has strong financials, high profit margins, and is investing heavily in AI innovation, making it well-positioned for long-term AI growth.

is the parent company of Google, a leader in AI and machine learning technologies. Google’s massive data resources and capabilities in areas like search, advertising, and cloud computing give it an AI advantage. Alphabet is investing significantly in expanding its AI offerings across consumer and enterprise markets.

Microsoft (MSFT) is an AI leader integrating the technology into its products like Office, Windows, and Azure cloud services. Its investments in areas like large language models and the new AI-powered Bing search engine position Microsoft well for the AI future.

UiPath (PATH) specializes in robotic process automation (RPA) software that can be enhanced by AI capabilities. As an Ark Invest top holding, UiPath is viewed as a promising AI play trading at an attractive valuation compared to peers.

While not pure-play AI companies, the financial strength, scale, and AI integration efforts of big tech giants like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft make them relatively lower-risk options to invest in the AI megatrend over the long run.

Proper diversification across different AI companies and a long-term perspective are recommended when investing in this rapidly evolving sector and a long investing time horizon are recommended to manage the volatility.

 

Get Back on the Bus

One morning, a mother was seeing her 8-year-old son off to school. She walked him to the bus stop, where they waited patiently. The bus came, and her son boarded. The mother then proceeded to go home so she could get ready to go to work.

About 15 minutes later, the doorbell rang, and her son was at the front door. She was shocked to see him since she had just gotten him on the school bus, and then she noticed the school bus with its door open in front of her house.

The mother asked her son, “What are you doing back home?”

Her 8-year-old son said, “I’m quitting school. It’s too hard, it’s too boring, and it’s too long.”

The mother looked at him and said, “That’s life, now get back on the bus.”

Lesson: Life experiences touch all, no matter how young or old.

May Is Mental Health Awareness Month

Mental Health Is Health

Mental health is an important part of how we feel every day.

Unlock Your Mind’s Full Potential This May

In a world that often prioritizes physical health above all else, you sometimes forget that your mental well-being is just as crucial to living a truly fulfilling life.

This May, as you celebrate Mental Health Month, it’s time to shatter the stigma and embrace the fact that mental health is health.

Your state of mind impacts every aspect of your daily existence – from your relationships and productivity to your overall sense of happiness and purpose. When you neglect your mental health, you risk feeling weighed down by stress, anxiety, and negativity, unable to fully appreciate the beauty that surrounds you.

But when you prioritize your mental well-being, you open the door to a world of possibilities. You gain the clarity and resilience to tackle life’s challenges head-on, the confidence to pursue your dreams, and the ability to truly savor each moment.

So, this May, let’s embark on a journey of self-discovery and self-care. Let’s learn to quiet the inner critic, cultivate gratitude, and embrace the practices that nourish your minds, bodies, and souls. Because when you prioritize your mental health, you unlock your full potential to thrive.

Your mental health affects what you think about yourself, how you interact with the world around you, and how you generally approach each day. Changes in our mental health can get in the way of our routines, and—much like a sprained ankle, a lingering cough, or chronic pain—should be treated with the help of a healthcare provider.

MVP research supports the future of mental health care.

Just like your physical health, mental health combines different factors. Veterans in MVP help researchers study those factors to find ways to improve mental health care.

Researchers are using information from MVP to study posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suicide prevention, depression, anxiety, substance use disorders, and other mental health conditions.

This research helps us understand more about mental health conditions, which could lead to improved screenings, preventions, interventions, and treatments for Veterans.
The Veterans Crisis Line offers 24/7 confidential crisis support for Veterans and their loved ones. Dial 988, then press 1.

One in a Million: Meet the Veterans of MVP

“It’s the right thing to do. If it’s going to help one person, it’s worth it. It’s worth my time; it’s worth everything.”

– Joseph Gurin, Army Veteran

The Anxious Generation

Parents are overprotective in the real world and underprotective in the virtual world.” ~ Jonathan Haidt

In his book The Anxious Generation, author and social psychologist Jonathan Haidt lays out the facts about the epidemic of teen mental illness that hit many countries at the same time. He argues that smartphones and social media are impairing children’s mental health.

Haidt contends that children need play and independent exploration to mature into competent, thriving adults. Haidt shows how the “play-based childhood” began to decline in the 1980s, and how it was finally wiped out by the arrival of the “phone-based childhood” in the early 2010s.

He explains why social media damages girls more than boys and why boys have been withdrawing from the real world into the virtual world, with disastrous consequences for themselves, their families, and their societies.

Most important, Haidt proposes the following four simple rules that parents, teachers, schools, tech companies, and governments can take to end the epidemic of mental illness and restore a more humane childhood:

  • No smartphones until high school
  • No social media before age 16
  • Phone-free schools
  • More independent and free play 

Source: The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness

 

Investing in Great Companies

All investing is the discounted value of all future cash flow. 

Investing in great companies at reasonable prices is a smart strategy.

Below are nine promising stocks that you might consider for your investment portfolio. Keep in mind that investing always carries risks, so it’s essential to do thorough research and consider your own financial goals and risk tolerance.

Here are some stocks that have caught the attention of experts at Forbes:

  1. Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL): Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.1. It’s a leader in technology and advertising, making it an attractive choice for long-term investors.
  2. Citigroup, Inc. ©: With a low forward P/E ratio of 8.4, Citigroup is a major global bank. It offers financial services and has the potential for growth.
  3. Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS): FIS provides financial technology solutions. Its forward P/E ratio is 15.3, and it’s well-positioned in the industry.
  4. Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG): A pioneer in robotic-assisted surgery, Intuitive Surgical has a forward P/E ratio of 60.9. It’s a high-growth company with significant potential.
  5. The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): With a forward P/E ratio of 12.2, Kraft Heinz is a food and beverage giant. It’s known for its iconic brands and steady performance.
  6. The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Progressive is an insurance company with a forward P/E ratio of 23.3. It has been consistently growing and is well-regarded in the industry.
  7. Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): Spotify, the popular music streaming service, has a forward P/E ratio of 98.0. It’s a high-risk, high-reward stock due to its competitive market.
  8. Tapestry, Inc. (TPR): Tapestry, which owns luxury brands like Coach and Kate Spade, has a forward P/E ratio of 8.7. It’s an interesting play in the retail sector.
  9. TopBuild Corp. (BLD): TopBuild, a construction services company, has a forward P/E ratio of 20.8. It benefits from the housing market and construction industry growth.

Remember that these are just suggestions, and it’s crucial to conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to spread risk across different sectors and asset classes. Happy investing! 📈👍


References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-stocks-to-buy-now/

Bourbon: America’s Native Whiskey

All bourbon is whiskey, but not all whiskey is bourbon.

Whiskey is made all across the world, but Bourbon is a type of American whiskey, made with at least 51% corn.

“Bourbon is America’s take on whiskey that came over with the original European colonists and immigrants,” says Heather Wibbels, managing director of Bourbon Women, a female-centered, consumer-based bourbon organization.

“People arriving in America brought their distilling traditions with them and adapted them to the grains and materials at hand to create a new kind of whiskey,” Wibbels continues. “Corn thrived in the U.S. more than rye and barley, so the colonists and early immigrants pivoted toward it as a base for their whiskies.”

Today, bourbon—America’s native whiskey—remains one of the most popular spirits categories.

To be classified as Bourbon, it needs to be made in the U.S. That means that everything—the mashing, distilling and aging—must be conducted on American soil.

In contrast, Whiskey/whisky, more broadly, can be made anywhere.

In addition, not all American whiskeys are bourbon

Bourbon is made from a mash bill with at least 51% corn. The remaining grains in the mix can range widely. High-rye bourbons contain a high concentration of rye grain, while wheated bourbons contain a high concentration of wheat. Other bourbons might include oats, barley or rice-based varieties. Some are 100% corn.

Whiskey is a broader category, and the grains will vary depending on the type of whiskey. For example, Scotch whiskey is made from malted (germinated) barley, while American rye whiskey contains at least 51% rye grain.

To be called bourbon, the whiskey must be aged in new charred barrels made from American oak.

Whiskeys from other regions may have different rules about the vessels. Most allow for used oak barrels—and used bourbon barrels often are used for aging other spirits, including non-bourbon whiskeys.

Although bourbon doesn’t have to be made in Kentucky, 95% of all bourbons are, according to the Kentucky Bourbon Trail.

Well-known bourbon producers from the state include Bulleit, Evan Williams, Four Roses, Heaven Hill, Jim Beam, Maker’s Mark, Michter’s, Old Forester, Wild Turkey and Woodford Reserve.


References:

  1. https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/spirits/bourbon-vs-whiskey/