“You don’t add value by rehashing the consensus — that’s already discounted in markets. I don’t think anybody’s gonna pay you very much for that..” ~ Gary Shilling

Top financial forecaster Gary Shilling believes that to beat the market, you must go against the consensus—but not simply as a contrarian for its own sake.

Shilling suggests that you, as an investor, need to identify rare situations where the consensus is clearly wrong and a major trend is developing. When you spot such an opportunity, act decisively.

Shiller emphasizes that most people can’t consistently beat the market because, on average, the market reflects all available information. Only by being correct when others are not can you outperform the market.