Category Archives: Money Supply

Millionaires’ Financial Things and Essentials

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Unexpected things about millionaires reveal patterns that often contradict popular stereotypes:

• Most millionaires are self-made, with about 80% to 79% having built their wealth themselves rather than inheriting it. Only a minority (around 20%) inherit substantial wealth or family businesses.

• Millionaires tend to be frugal and pragmatic rather than flashy. For example, many drive used cars that are a few years old rather than brand-new luxury vehicles, saving on depreciation and insurance costs. They often avoid extravagant purchases and live below their means.
• They emphasize long-term consistent investing rather than chasing quick riches or risky gambles. About 75% attribute their wealth to regular investing over many years.
• Millionaires often come from ordinary educational backgrounds, with most graduating from public or state colleges rather than elite private schools, although a college degree is common (around 88%).
• Many millionaires exhibit specific personality traits such as high conscientiousness, openness, extraversion, and low neuroticism. They are generally more risk-tolerant than the average person but are disciplined about money.
• They are not heavily into high-end fashion, preferring simple, timeless clothing over fast fashion or expensive brands. Shopping lists and coupon usage are common habits to avoid unnecessary spending.
• Millionaires generally pay off mortgages relatively quickly (average around 10 years), avoiding decades of debt.
• Many millionaires view financial independence as more important than social status or material displays of wealth.
• Millionaires are often resilient, embracing failure and uncertainty as part of their success path, and are proactive in creating opportunities rather than waiting for luck.
• Despite stereotypes, the majority do not live extravagant lifestyles but focus on building and preserving wealth through disciplined financial habits and smart decision-making.

These insights show millionaires to be careful, pragmatic, disciplined, and often surprisingly modest with their money, rather than flaunting wealth or relying on inheritance.

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20-millionaire-facts-you-may-believe-habeeb-mahmood-5xpqf

Persistent Inflation and Loss of Purchasing Power

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U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was hotter than expected.

March 2024 U.S.CPI annual inflation rose 3.5%, above expectations of 3.4%.

Core CPI inflation increased 3.8% year-over-year (Y/Y), compared to forecasts for a gain of 3.7%.

The March 2024 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report marked a third consecutive 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) increase. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3.5% in March

  • The slightly stronger March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was driven by rises in shelter and energy prices.
  • March’s stronger year-over-year (YoY) rise in the headline CPI suggests the path to the Fed’s 2% target could take longer than expected.

Persistent Inflation occurs when the U.S. money supply grows more rapidly (to pay for huge fiscal deficits) than the country’s economic output.

Money Supply and Inflation:

When the Federal Reserve (the Fed) increases the money supply, it leads to inflation.

Imagine an economy with $100 and 100 bananas. If the government increases the money supply by 10% to $110, but the banana output only grows by 5% to 105 bananas, we have more money chasing fewer goods. As a result, the average price per banana increases from $1 to roughly $1.05. Thus, the purchasing power of the currency is reduced.

The quantity theory of money (QTM) suggests that the value of money is determined by supply and demand. When the money supply grows faster than economic output, inflation occurs.

Monetarist View:

Monetarists believe that inflation results from too many dollars chasing too few goods. As the money supply grows, the value of money decreases due to supply and demand dynamics.

In summary, managing the money supply is imperative for the Fed. Too much growth can lead to persistent inflation, affecting the purchasing power of the dollar.

U.S. Money Supply Drives Inflation

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“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman

Economist Steve Hanke view has been that the volatile and non-transitory inflation of recent years is chiefly due to changes (a significant increase) in the US money supply, not other factors such as supply-chain disruptions and swings in energy and metal prices.

Hanke, a former economic advisor to Ronald Reagan, served as the president of Toronto Trust Argentina when it was the world’s best-performing market mutual fund in 1995.

“As Milton Friedman taught us long ago, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” Hanke said. “That’s why our forecast, based off the quantity theory of money, has been so accurate.”

“Inflation is taxation without representation.” ~ Milton Friedman

The veteran economist Hanke and a colleague, John Greenwood, predicted in July 2021 that the headline Consumer Price Index would rise as quickly as 9% on an annualized basis; it peaked at 9.1% a year later. They later forecast the inflation measure would fall to between 2% and 5% by December last year, and it ended the year at 3.4%.

“Money [supply] is the economy’s fuel,” Hanke and Greenwood warned the US economy was “running on fumes” and “on schedule to tank” given its money supply had contracted since March 2022, after growing by a historic 27% in part due to fiscal stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

References:

  1. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/steve-hanke-stocks-economy-outlook-recession-inflation-forecast-fed-money-2024-1