Bill Miller 4Q 2019 Market Letter

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” Warren Buffett

Bill Miller, CFA, is the founder of Miller Value Partners, and currently serves as the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer. His fourth quarter 2019 Market Letter released 13 January 2020, to clients is loaded with useful insights for investors and followers of the financial markets. The letter has been discussed thoroughly by financial pundits and the financial entertainment media.

Market forecasts delivered by economists and the financial news entertainment media pundits on networks, such as CNBC, are rarely useful or insightful or accurate.  Bill Miller cited in his letter that “…the future is not forecastable with any degree of granularity”. 

The method most forecasters use is either to follow the consensus or to “believe that tomorrow will look pretty much like yesterday.”  He further mentioned that “one of the 20th century’s greatest economists, was once asked how far into the future a good economist could forecast”. He quipped: “One quarter back.””

“Short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.” Warren Buffett

Essentially, no economist or financial guru can accurately or reliability forecast the market’s direction (rise, flat or pullback) or its relative velocity of change. Despite their self proclaimed vast financial experience and inside knowledge of the inner workings of equity stock markets, the sophisticated financial tools available to them, and their early access to market news, they remain unable to reliably forecast the market.

Miller concluded in his letter that, “stocks will not move in a straight line higher even if the bull market continues in 2020, as I believe it will.”  He stated that,  “setbacks and corrections should be expected, but unless something causes the economy to tip into recession and earnings and cash flows to decline, which I do not expect even if the geopolitical situation gets grimmer, then the path of least resistance for stocks remains as has been for a decade: higher.”

To read the entire letter, go to:  Bill Miller 4Q 2019 Market Letter


Sources:

  1. https://millervalue.com/bill-miller-4q-2019-market-letter/
  2. https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/warren-buffetts-advice-investors-25-quotes/

Stock Investing Basics

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” John Bogle

Investing, especially in stocks, is about putting your money to work for you with the goal of growing it over time. And, the sooner you start investing the less you may need to save because your money gets to work that much sooner. The more you invest; the more those returns can add up.

Investing does involve risk. And the stock market particularly will experience volatility, meltdowns and melt ups. But there are ways and means to mitigate that risk. The key is to choose a strategy that incorporates a broad range of investments in stocks, bonds, and cash based on your risk tolerance and time horizon and never put all your money in one particular stock.

Intelligent investing is based on the relationship between price and value. One other important factor is time.  Assessing the stock price relative to its intrinsic value remains the most reliable way to invest for the long term. To protect yourself against market downturns, a long-term approach is essential.

Important steps to smart investing

All too often, people fail to think about how to start or just fail to start investing. To stay ahead of inflation, your money needs to earn more than a typical savings account pay. Research indicates that the best action a long-term investor can take is to start investing early in life, like in their early twenties—regardless of what the markets are doing.

Create an investment plan

“The man without a purpose is like a ship without a rudder.” Thomas Carlyle

Like a ship without a rudder, trying to manage your money and achieve your long-term goals are unlikely without a plan. You would not start a trip without planning and mapping out your route in advance. So,why would you save for retirement without first planning your path to achieving your short-, intermediate-, and long-term financial goals. You will need to:

  • Have an investment plan that is realistic and actionable.
  • Understand your plan, follow it, and adjust it when things change in your life.

Put your plan into action.

  • Keep your portfolio diversified with an asset allocation that’s right for your risk tolerance—and stick with it.
  • Don’t wait. If you invest now, you’ll start earning sooner.

Stay on track.

  • Do periodic checkups to keep your portfolio healthy.
  • Keep in mind that long-term goals are more important than short-term performance.

When you invest in a stock, you are buying ownership shares in a company—also known as equity shares. Your return on investment, or what you get back in relation to what you put in, depends on the success or failure of that company. If the company does well and makes money from the products or services it sells, you expect to benefit from that success. There are two main ways to make money with stocks:

  1. Dividends. Publicly owned companies can choose to distribute some of those earnings to shareholders by paying a dividend. Shareholders can either take the dividends in cash or reinvest them to purchase more shares in the company.
  2. Capital gains. When a stock price goes higher than what you paid to buy it, you can sell your shares at a profit. These profits are known as capital gains. In contrast, if you sell your stock for a lower price than you paid to buy it, you’ve incurred a capital loss.

Both dividends and capital gains depend on the returns generated by the company—dividends as a result of the company’s earnings and capital gains based on investor demand for the stock. 

The performance of a stock can be affected by what’s happening in the market, which can be affected by the economy as a whole or by changes in investor psychology. For example, if interest rates increase, and you think you can make more money with bonds than you can with stock, you might sell off stock and use that money to buy bonds.

If many investors feel the same way, the stock market as a whole is likely to drop in value, which in turn may affect the value of the investments you hold. Other factors, such as political uncertainty at home or abroad, energy or weather problems, or soaring corporate profits, also influence market performance.

Important Element of Investing

Stock prices will be low enough to attract investors again. If you and others begin to buy, stock prices tend to rise, offering the potential for making a profit. That expectation may breathe new life into the stock market as more people invest.

This cyclical pattern—specifically, the pattern of strength and weakness in the stock market and the majority of stocks that trade in the stock market—recurs continually, though the schedule isn’t predictable. Sometimes, the market moves from strength to weakness and back to strength in only a few months. Other times, this movement, which is known as a full market cycle, takes years.

At the same time that the stock market is experiencing ups and downs, the bond market is fluctuating as well. That’s why asset allocation, or including different types of investments in your portfolio, is such an important strategy: In many cases, the bond market is up when the stock market is down and vice versa.

Your goal as an investor is to be invested in several categories of investments at the same time, so that some of your money will be in the category that’s doing well at any given time.

Savers often think they can’t afford to lose any money by investing in the market. But they don’t realize that when they don’t make their money work for them, they are losing purchasing power. Inflation, for example, creeps up over the years and steals from your savings if you’re not earning enough to make up for it.


  1. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/nobody-knows-ii.pdf

10 Rules for Financial Success – Barron’s

“Wealth isn’t about how much money you make – wealth is about how much money you save and invest.”

The true measure of financial success isn’t how much money you make—it’s how much you keep. That’s a function of how well you’re able to save money, protect it, and invest it over the long term.

Sadly, most Americans are lousy at this.

Even after a decade of steady economic expansion and record-breaking stock markets, almost two-thirds of earners would be hard-pressed to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense—a medical bill, car repair, or busted furnace—and more than 75% don’t save enough or invest skillfully enough to meet modest long-term retirement goals, according to Bankrate.com.

Even wealthy families aren’t getting it right: 70% lose wealth by their second generation, and 90% by their third. “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations,” as a saying often attributed to Andrew Carnegie goes.

What’s at the root of these bleak data? Stagnant salaries amid rising costs of health care, education, housing, and other big-ticket necessities have put a major strain on folks of all ages. But advisors point to a deeper issue: an almost universal lack of financial literacy.

“This is a much bigger problem than most people are aware of,” says Spuds Powell, managing director at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Wealth Management in Los Angeles. “I’m constantly amazed at how common it is for clients, even sophisticated ones, to be lacking in financial literacy.”

The ten rules for financial success are:

  1. Set goals
  2. Know what you’ve got and know what you need
  3. Save systematically
  4. Invest in your retirement plan
  5. Invest for growth
  6. Avoid bad debt
  7. Don’t overpay for anything
  8. Protect yourself
  9. Keep it simple
  10. Seek unbiased advice

— Read on www.barrons.com/articles/10-rules-for-financial-success-51558742435

Saving vs Investing

“…(wealthly) people see every dollar as a ‘seed’ that can be planted to earn a hundred more dollars … then replanted to earn a thousand more dollars.”

T. Harv Eker, Secrets of the Millionaire Mind

Only about 55 percent of Americans invest in the stock market, according to a 2015 Gallup poll. For Americans to create and grow wealth, they must save and take steps to learn about and start investing.

Saving and investing often are used interchangeably, but there is a significant difference.

  • Saving is setting aside money you don’t spend now for emergencies or for a future purchase. It’s money you want to be able to access quickly, with little or no risk, and with the least amount of taxes.
  • Investing is buying assets such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds or real estate with the expectation that your investment will make money for you. Investments usually are selected to achieve long-term goals with increased risk and volatility. Generally speaking, investments can be categorized as income investments or growth investments through capital appreciation. 

Start Investing Early

One of the best ways to build wealth is by saving and investing over a long period of time. The earlier you start, the easier it is for your money to grow. If you have a workplace retirement plan, consider enrolling and maximizing your contribution—there are tax advantages and you may even be eligible for a match from your employer. Set up regular, automatic contributions. Investing early is especially important for retirement.

Make savings a priority

Keep your focus on your dreams and goals. Do the best you can to save and invest at least 15%-20%. It may not be always possible to hit that target every year due more pressing financial demands, but try. Your future depends on your efforts—make your retirement a priority.

Consider this …

If you deposited $2,000 in a savings account at 3 percent annual interest, it would grow to $3,612 in 20 years (before taxes). The same $2,000 invested in a stock mutual fund earning an average 10 percent a year would grow to $13,455 in 20 years (before taxes).


Reference:

  1. http://www.gallup.com/poll/182816/little-change-percentage-americans-invested-market.aspx

Don’t Just Save…Value Invest

Make the most of your money and that means investing.

For many Americans, investing can appear to be a frightening gamble. Memories of the 2008 financial crisis devastated investment accounts with paper losses more than ten years ago create the reluctance among many to invest.

However, in order to beat inflation and ensure that your savings will work for you long term, it’s crucial to invest in growth-oriented investments such as the stock market. Whether through an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan, a traditional or Roth IRA, an individual brokerage account or somewhere else, to build wealth and financial security, individuals must invest in the equity stock market. And, it is important to start investing as early as you can to give your money as much time as possible to grow.

Valuation matters, and it matters a lot.

Value investing rarely performs well in the short run. This is especially true during strong bull markets. Popular non-GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks are likely to be overvalued whereas unpopular value stocks will be where the best bargains can be found.

Consequently, being a value investor means being a patient investor and implies that an investor have a long-term mindset. Value investing rarely produces short-term results, because value investing usually also implies investing in out of favor stocks. This unpopularity is often why they have become bargains.

Moreover, value stocks are typically inexpensive for good reasons. Therefore, we need to ascertain whether the discounted stock price is justified or perhaps an overreaction by investors. These judgments can help us determine the level of risk we are facing and if we are being adequately compensated for taking it by the low valuations or not.

Additionally, in the long run value stocks often dramatically outperform and very often do so by taking on significantly less risk than other strategies such as momentum, or in many cases even growth. This is attributed to the fact that the risk is being mitigated by low valuation (price) and margin of safety.

As a result, the key benefit of value investing is the valuation risk mitigation element. Research demonstrates that stocks that are properly valued, or undervalued, are more defensive in a volatile or bear market.

Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock against its prevailing market price. Intrinsic value is the actual worth of a company’s asset, or the present value of an asset when adding up the total discounted future income generated:

  • Deep value investing – buying stocks in seriously undervalued businesses. The main goal is to search for significant mismatches between current stock prices and the intrinsic value of these stocks. This kind of investing requires a large amount of margin to invest with and takes lots of guts, as it is risky.
  • Growth at reasonable price investing – choosing companies that have positive growth trading rates which are somehow below the intrinsic value.

Margin of safety serves as a cushion against errors in calculation. Since fair value is difficult to accurately predict, safety margins protect investors from poor decisions and downturns in the market.


Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/how-much-money-youd-have-if-you-invested-500-dollars-a-month-since-2009.html

Goals are Key

“When you define your goals, you give your brain something new to look for and focus on. It’s as if you’re giving your mind a new set of eyes from which to see all the people, circumstances, conversations, resources, ideas, and creativity surrounding you.” Darren Hardy, author of Compound Effect

With goals, investors can create a realistic plan for achieving their investing objectives within a certain time frame. Since one of the biggest mistakes investors make is confusing investing with stock picking or trading. Ask many people how their money is invested and they might quickly jump to tell you the latest hot stock they’ve purchased and the investment thesis that explains why they think it’s going to take off.

Without an investment plan, what is the goal? Probably just to make some quick, easy money, which neuroscience has shown makes us feel good. Unfortunately, behavioral economics tells us that acting on such impulses tends not to end well. To be true to the term, investing must start with a specific goal corresponding to a set time horizon. The goal itself could be anything: buying a new car in two years; purchasing your first home in five years; or retiring in 40 years. What’s most important is to have the goal be the focus of your approach.

Once you’ve identified a goal, an investment plan can take shape. How much savings can you devote to it? How much time do you have? How realistic is the goal given the first two questions and the amount of risk you feel comfortable taking? If you choose to work with a Financial Advisor, he or she can help you find answers to these questions, and take you a long way to devising a strategy to help achieve that goal. 

Know your time horizon

How long do you plan to hold a stock and what purpose will it serve in your portfolio? Your trade time frame depends on your trading strategy. Generally speaking, traders fit into one of three categories:

  • Single-session traders are very active and are looking to gain from small price variations over very short periods of time.
  • Swing traders target trades that can be completed in a few days to a few weeks.
  • Position traders seek larger gains and recognize that it often takes longer than a few weeks to achieve them
  • Determine your entry strategy  Look for entry signals—for instance, divergences from trend lines and support levels—to help you place your trades. The signals you employ and the orders you use to make good on them hinge on your trading style and preferences.

Plan your exit

When it comes to an exit strategy, plan for two types of trades: those that go in your favor and those that don’t. You might be tempted to let favorable trades run, but don’t ignore opportunities to take some profits.

For example, when a trade is going your way, you could consider selling part of your position at your initial target price to make gains, while letting a portion run.

To prepare for when a trade moves against you, you can set sell stop orders underneath a stock’s support area, and if it breaks below that range, you can choose to sell.

Determine your position size

Trading is risky. A good trade plan will establish ground rules for how much you are willing to risk on any single trade. Say, for example, you don’t want to risk losing more than 2–3% of your account on a single trade, you could consider exercising portion control, or sizing positions to fit your budget.

Review your trade performance

Are you making or losing money with your trades? And importantly, do you understand why?

First, examine your trading history by calculating your theoretical “trade expectancy”—your average gain (or loss) per trade. To do this, figure out the percentage of your trades that have been profitable vs. unprofitable. This is known as your win/loss ratio. Next, compute your average gain for profitable trades and average loss for unprofitable trades. Then, subtract you average loss from your average gain to get your trade expectancy.

Profitable trades

A positive trade expectancy indicates that, overall, your trading was profitable. If your trade expectancy is negative, it’s probably time to review your exit criteria for trades.

The final step is to look at your individual trades and try to identify trends. Technical traders can review moving averages, for example, and see whether some were more profitable than others when used for setting stop orders (e.g., 20-day vs. 50-day).

Sticking to it

Even with a solid trade plan, emotions can knock you off course. This is particularly true when a trade has gone your way. Being on the winning side of a single trade is easy; it’s cultivating a continuum of winning trades that matters. Creating a trade plan is the first step in helping you think about the next trade.


Source:

  1. Lee Bohl, 5 Steps for a Smart Trade Plan, Fidelity Insights, November 21, 2019
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/5-steps-smart-trade-plan?cmp=em-QYD
  2. www.morganstanley.com/articles/having-goal-key-to-investing

The No. 1 secret to long-term investment success – MarketWatch

The key to long-term success is to pick a good strategy and then establish a lifetime commitment to maintain that strategy regardless of what’s going on at the moment.

In the short term and the medium term, the market is unpredictable and seemingly random. But over the long term (I’m talking decades), it’s easier to figure out and predict.

If there’s a “secret” to long-term success, it’s managing your expectations.

— Read on www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-secret-to-long-term-investment-success-2020-01-21

Know Your Net Worth | Financial Literacy

“What gets measured gets managed.” Peter Drucker

This principle of ‘what gets measured gets managed’ means that examining or quantifying an activity, such as personal finance and net worth, will change the activity and its result by forcing you to pay attention to it.

This principle said another way…’you manage what you measure‘ is pertinent to personal finance. The principle can be applied to help us manage our personal finances and to permit us to get our hands around our personal net worth. Creating a net worth statement, and updating it each year, will help you monitor your financial progress and meet financial goals.

As you prepare to invest, you’ll need to know your net worth. And, it’s simple to calculate. You simply add up what assets you own and subtract what liabilities you owe.

Creating a net worth statement, and updating it each year, will help you monitor your financial progress and meet financial goals. It will also enable you to calculate how much you have (or don’t have) to invest.

www.finra.org/investors/personal-finance/know-your-net-worth

The 5 Step Guide to Avoid Making Investment Mistakes

“The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything.”

If you apply this famous quote by Theodore Roosevelt to investing, the easiest way to avoid mistakes while investing is by not investing at all. But, that is the biggest investment mistake one can make.

Investing is important to build wealth in the long term. However, just investing is not enough as investing right is equally important.
— Read on www.entrepreneur.com/article/343454

Stocks Have Outperform Other Asset Classes

For the next decade, which asset class among stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold/metals, or bitcoin/cryptocurrency, would be the best vehicle to invest money for the highest long-term total returns?

Since 1890, the S&P 500 (or its predecessor indexes) has outpaced inflation at a 6.3% annualized rate (when including dividends). Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds have produced an annualized inflation-adjusted total return of 2.7%. Finally, U.S. real estate has produced an annualized return above inflation of just 0.4%, as judged by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the consumer-price index.

Yet, the U.S. stock and bond markets are currently overvalued, and it is plausible that real estate will do better than either stocks and bonds over the next decade.

According to almost all standard valuation metrics, U.S. equity stocks currently are somewhere between overvalued overvalued. Furthermore, you can only partially explain away this overvaluation because of low interest rates.

Given stocks’ overvaluation, it’s entirely possible that stocks will over the next decade have the potential to fall short of their historical averages.

To the contrary, real estate has been relatively undervalued and historically less volatile than the stock market—a lot less as measured by the standard deviation of annual returns.

As a result, real estate has proven to be less riskier than equities. Yet, the misperception that real estate is riskier has been derived from the leverage typically used when purchasing real estate adds inherent risk to investing in real estate. Essentially, the risk for real estate comes from the leverage, not real estate inherently.

If there is a major stock bear market in the next decade, real estate might be the better investment just because of it’s lower risk and relatively undervalued.


Sources:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-single-best-investment-for-the-next-decade-2019-08-08
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-bulls-are-telling-themselves-a-lot-of-lies-about-this-market-2019-06-04