Category Archives: Investing

Market Timing

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“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” Jack Bogle

During the 2008 financial crisis and economic uncertainty, global financial markets were melting down and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection.  The resulting economic recession and global slowdown brought unemployment rates in the U.S. as high as 10 percent.  And, the U.S. stock market lost trillion of dollars in value as the S&P 500 experienced a single day drop of 90.17 points, nearly 9.04 percent.

Americans, and specifically American investors, believed inherently that the global economy and financial markets were collapsing.  Fear and panic selling took hold worldwide.  Both professional and retail investors started to sell and it didn’t matter what they sold.  Yet, Warren Buffett was buying stocks that were rapidly falling in price when everyone else was panic selling and sprinting to cash.

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

According to Buffett, “A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” he wrote in the NY Times.

Additionally, Buffett wrote in his 2018 shareholder letter.

“Seizing the opportunities when offered does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta.  What investors then need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period — or even to look foolish — is also essential.”

There are several valuable lessons investors learned from the 2008 financial crisis that can be applied towards today pandemic driven crisis.  The lessons are based on the same principles that allowed Buffett to invest so effectively during the crisis. To sum them up:

  • Don’t panic and sell stocks simply because the market is crashing. When times get tough, Buffett is invariably a net buyer of stocks. For this reason, he keeps billions of dollars in cash on the sidelines — so he can take advantage during times of investors’ fear and panic selling.
  • Focus on best-in-breed companies trading at discounts. A great example was Buffett’s investment in Bank of America and Goldman-Sachs.
  • Don’t try to time the market. Just because the market has crashed doesn’t mean it can’t go down more. It certainly can. Instead of trying to invest at the absolute market bottom, focus on stocks you want to hold for the long term.
  • Understand that no stock or industry is completely immune. Back then, many investors had a disproportionate amount of their portfolio in financial stocks because they were thought to be safe.  Essentially, no stock or industry are safe.

Warren Buffett believes intrinsically that “it is a waste of time and hazardous to investment success trying to time the market”.  In a 1994 annual letter to shareholders, Buffett wrote:

“I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn’t be any good and it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good.  If we’re right about a business, if we think a business is attractive, it would be very foolish for us to not take action on that because we thought something about what the market was going to do. … If you’re right about the businesses, you’ll end up doing fine.”


Bottom line: As long as investors keep a level head and maintain a long-term perspective as Buffett does, investors should come out of it just fine, if not stronger than they went in.

Sources:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/warren-buffetts-rule-for-investing-during-the-financial-crisis.html
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/23/10-years-later-warren-buffett-and-the-financial-cr.aspx
  3.  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/warren-buffett-says-he-never-tries-to-time-stocks-i-never-have-an-opinion-about-the-market.html
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/24/highlights-from-warren-buffetts-annual-letter.html

Financial Goal Setting

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“If you are bored with life, if you don’t get up every morning with a burning desire to do things – you don’t have enough goals.” Lou Holtz

Research shows that our brains are a goal-seeking organism.  Whatever personal or financial goals we give our subconscious mind will allow it to work night and day to achieve them. However, one goal isn’t good enough for our subconscious minds.

Some goals take longer to achieve than others, like buying a house or saving for retirement. If you spend years working toward only one objective, you’re likely to get discouraged when it doesn’t happen right away.

But when you have multiple goals you’d like to achieve, goals that align with your values and beliefs, you have more to strive for, and more opportunities to check those goals off your list. And the accomplishment you feel every time you complete a goal will inspire you to accomplish even more of them

Actions overcomes fear

Jack Canfield, author of Chicken Soup for the Soul™, states categorically that “the biggest reason most people don’t achieve their goals and realize their dreams is that they don’t take action, and the number one reason people don’t take action is fear.”

“There is a one thing that 99 percent of “failures” and “successful” folks have in common — they all hate doing the same things. The difference is successful people do them anyway.” Darren Hardy

People whom achieve their goals versus those whom fail has everything to do with overcoming the paralysis of fear versus taking action. The people who achieve great success in life are the ones who are willing to take consistent action toward realizing their dreams. They consistently push through their fear and take steps to make their goals happen, no matter what others may think or say about it.

Goal achievers make countless small decisions, they plan and they take deliberate actions every single day that keep them on target toward achieving their dreams. Because without deliberate action, your goals simply are not going to be achieved.

No matter how ambitious the goals or how brilliant the plans, if you’re not prepared to take deliberate action to reach them, they’re not really goals at all—they’re just dreams.

Start with goals you can achieve

Every successful investing journey starts with a set of clear goals.

Appropriate financial goals for an investor should be specific, measurable, attainable, reasonable and timed with a deadline (SMART). Successful achievement of goals should not depend upon unrealistic or outsize market returns or upon impractical saving or draconian spending requirements.

Defining goals clearly and being realistic about ways to achieve them can help protect investors from common mistakes that often derail their progress. Here we show that:

  • Recognizing constraints, especially those that involve risk-taking, is essential to developing an investment plan.
  • A basic financial plan will include specific, attainable expectations about action steps and monitoring.
  • Discouraging results often come from not following a financial plan, chasing overall market returns, an unsound investment strategy that can seduce investors who lack well-grounded plans for achieving their goals.
  • Without a plan, investors can be tempted to build a portfolio based on transitory factors such as fund ratings—something that can amount to a “buy high, sell low” strategy.

Life financial goals

Make a list of financial goals you’d like to achieve in your life. Be as specific as possible. Include details such as when they will happen, where they will happen, how much you’ll make, what model you’ll buy, what size it will be, and so on.

Keep your goals somewhere you can review them every morning. Put your goals on a poster or piece of paper where you read each night before you fall asleep.

Keep goals at the top of mind, you’ll be more likely to make them a reality. Reaching your retirement savings goals starts with developing a retirement plan. Fidelity Investments has developed a set of retirement guidelines based on 4 key metrics:

  • Yearly savings rate,
  • Savings factor to help you see where you stand,
  • Income replacement rate, and
  • Potentially sustainable withdrawal rate.

“Unsuccessful people carry their goals around in their head like marbles rattling around in a can, and we say goals that are not in writing are merely fantasies.” Darren Hardy

Writing your goals down is the first step in turning your dreams into a reality. If you keep goals in your head you’re not likely to focus and work on them consistently. Thus, it is important to write down all your goals. Whether it’s short-term or long-term goals, it is essential to list every goal in writing.

Writing it down will have a powerful effect on your subconscious mind to help you visualize and achieve your biggest dreams. Remember, a goal is a dream defined and written down.

Make Goals Real by Writing Them Down

Goals are a very effective way to build your self-belief because properly set goals require you to stretch a little outside of your comfort zone; causing you to expand your comfort zone as you achieve the goal.

With clear and measurable goals, investors can create a realistic plan for achieving their objectives within a certain time frame. Make a list of your short-term and long-term savings goals.

If you write down your goals, you’re more likely to achieve them. Think of them as a road map to where you want to go—and make them practical and attainable. Take a simple approach:

  1. Divide your financial goals into three categories: short term (less than one year); medium term (one to five years) and long term (more than five years).
  2. Attach a dollar amount to each goal. For instance, a short-term goal might be a family vacation. How much will it cost?
  3. The more specific you can be, the more motivated you’ll be to work toward that goal.

Goal Attainment Requires Believing in Yourself

Everything you have in your life is a result of your belief in yourself and the belief that all things are possible. According to Jack Canfield, the four most important steps to learning how to believe in yourself are:

  • Believe it’s possible. Believe that you can do it regardless of what anyone says or where you are in life.
  • Visualize it. Think about exactly what your life would look like if you had already achieved your dream.
  • Act as if. Always act in a way that is consistent with where you want to go.
  • Take action towards your goals. Do not let fear stop you, nothing happens in life until you take action.

Incorporate and practice these four steps.

Mistakes Investors Make

One of the biggest mistakes investors regularly make when goals and a plan are absent is to confuse investing with stock picking. Ask many people how their money is invested and they quickly tell you the latest hot stock they’ve purchased and the investment thesis that explains why they think it’s going to take off.

Saving for retirement and building an emergency fund should be the highest priorities, followed by other long-term financial goals, like college, travel, or a house. You can contribute a small amount to each goal or pick a couple to focus on first. Decide how much you need to save to reach those goals.

Sources:

  1. https://www.jackcanfield.com/about-jack-canfield/
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/retirement-guidelines

Developing Good Financial Habits

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“It’s not the big things that add up in the end; it’s the hundreds, thousands, or millions of little things that separate the ordinary from the extraordinary.” Darren Hardy, author of The Compound Effect

Financial planning in small steps doesn’t take large sums of money to start.  In fact, financial planning can have a profound impact on financial security for Americans, especially lower-income households, by helping people improve their saving and budgeting habits. A written plan helps savers prioritize their goals and provides a way to measure success.

A disciplined, steady approach to saving, investing and ruthlessly managing spending wins out. Wealth-building habits don’t involve a get-rich-quick scheme —it is a slow, gradual process to accumulate wealth,” you must be persistent and consistent.

Savings habits

“The real cost of a four-dollar-a-day coffee habit over 20 years is $51,833.79. That’s the power of the Compound Effect.” Darren Hardy

While investing may appear at times to be complicated and risky, saving is pretty straightforward. Two-pronged approach to increase the saving amount:

  • Generate more cash inflow.
  • Reduce cash outflow.

Spending and saving often go hand in hand because whatever you don’t spend is potential savings. That’s why it is important to focus on buying things that will hold value or appreciate in value instead of allowing expenses to eat into savings through continuous consumption. To accumulate wealth, it is critical to manage expenses tightly. Instead of living just within your means, it is important to live below your means.

One way to reduce outflow is to maximize tax savings through retirement plans such as the 401(k). Another is to pay off debt and prioritize by paying the debts with the highest interest rate first.

Keep an eye on the prize

“There is a one thing that 99 percent of “failures” and “successful” folks have in common — they all hate doing the same things. The difference is successful people do them anyway.” Darren Hardy

Following the adage that it becomes easier to reach your destination or to achieve a successful outcome with an end goal in mind. Those who gain wealth believe that everything they do is ultimately done to fulfill their financial goals. For example, people should set a “retirement number” and a deadline for reaching that number. That number is the goal for how much cash and investments they need for a comfortable retirement and the deadline is the date to achieve the goal. Every time you put money toward saving, you’re a step closer to the prize.

Set It, But Don’t Forget It

Setting up an automated savings and payment system is one habit highly successful people practice to keep their financial house in order. They automate their savings, investing, bill payments and money transfers. But they don’t ‘set it and forget it’ once they set up the automated system. They know it’s important to maintain awareness and manage regularly, at least weekly, where their money’s going.

Automatic saving and investing

People have to be consistently reminded that to develop habits of saving and investing. The more you do develop the habit of saving and investing for the long term, the easier it will become. Consequently, it is recommended to set automatic savings protocols, if necessary, so a portion of your earnings goes directly from your paycheck into a separate savings account.

Habitually and automatically save 10% to 20% of every paycheck.

References:

  1. https://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/financial-habits-of-wealthy.aspx
  2. https://jamesclear.com/book-summaries/the-compound-effect

3 mistakes to avoid during a market downturn | Vanguard

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Following a decade-plus of generally rising markets, a meaningful downturn in stocks may finally be here. We don’t know how bad it will be or how long it will last.

We do know that some investors will make costly mistakes before prices rise again. Here are 3 common errors worth avoiding.
— Read on investornews.vanguard/3-mistakes-to-avoid-during-a-market-downturn/

10 Money Lessons He Wished Heard — or Listened to — When Younger | MarketWatch

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Updated: February 23, 2020

Jonathan Clements, author of “From Here to Financial Happiness” and “How to Think About Money,” and editor of HumbleDollar.com., is the former personal-finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal. He has devoted his entire adult life to learning about money.

That might sound like cruel-and-unusual punishment, but he has mostly enjoyed it. For more than three decades, he has spent his days perusing the business pages, reading finance books, scanning academic studies and talking to countless folks about their finances.

Yet, despite this intense financial education, it took him a decade or more to learn many of life’s most important money lessons and, indeed, some key insights have only come to him in recent years.

Here are 10 things he wished he’d been told in his 20s—or told more loudly, so he actually listened:

— Read on www.marketwatch.com/story/10-money-lessons-i-wish-id-listened-to-when-i-was-younger-2020-02-12

1. A small home is the key to a big portfolio. Financially, it turned out to be one of the smartest things he had ever done, because it allowed him to save great gobs of money. That’s clear to him in retrospect. But he wished he’d known it was a smart move at the time, because he wouldn’t have wasted so many hours wondering whether he should have bought a larger place.

2. Debts are negative bonds. From his first month as a homeowner, he sent in extra money with his mortgage payment, so he could pay off the loan more quickly. But it was only later that he came to view his mortgage as a negative bond—one that was costing him dearly. Indeed, paying off debt almost always garners a higher after-tax return than you can earn by investing in high-quality bonds.

3. Watching the market and your portfolio doesn’t improve performance. This has been another huge time waster. It’s a bad habit he belatedly trying to break.

4. Thirty years from now, you’ll wish you’d invested more in stocks. Yes, over five or even 10 years, there’s some chance you’ll lose money in the stock market. But over 30 years? It’s highly likely you’ll notch handsome gains, especially if you’re broadly diversified and regularly adding new money to your portfolio in good times and bad.

5. Nobody knows squat about short-term investment performance. One of the downsides of following the financial news is that you hear all kinds of smart, articulate experts offering eloquent predictions of plummeting share prices and skyrocketing interest rates that—needless to say—turn out to be hopelessly, pathetically wrong. In his early days as an investor, this was, alas, the sort of garbage that would give him pause.

6. Put retirement first. Buying a house or sending your kids to college shouldn’t be your top goal. Instead, retirement should be. It’s so expensive to retire that, if you don’t save at least a modest sum in your 20s, the math quickly becomes awfully tough—and you’ll need a huge savings rate to amass the nest egg you need.

7. You’ll end up treasuring almost nothing you buy. Over the years, he had had fleeting desires for all kinds of material goods. Most of the stuff he purchased has since been thrown away. This is an area where millennials seem far wiser than us baby boomers. They’re much more focused on experiences than possessions—a wise use of money, says happiness research.

8. Work is so much more enjoyable when you work for yourself. These days, he earn just a fraction of what he made during my six years on Wall Street, but he is having so much more fun. No meetings to attend. No employee reviews. No worries about getting to the office on time or leaving too early. he is working harder today than he ever have. But it doesn’t feel like work—because it’s his choice and it’s work he is passionate about.

9. Will our future self approve? As we make decisions today, he think this is a hugely powerful question to ask—and yet it’s only in recent years that he had learned to ask it.

When we opt not to save today, we’re expecting our future self to make up the shortfall. When we take on debt, we’re expecting our future self to repay the money borrowed. When we buy things today of lasting value, we’re expecting our future self to like what we purchase.

Pondering our future self doesn’t just improve financial decisions. It can also help us to make smarter choices about eating, drinking, exercising and more.

10. Relax, things will work out. As he watch his son, daughter and son-in-law wrestle with early adult life, he glimpse some of the anxiety that he suffered in my 20s and 30s.

When you’re starting out, there’s so much uncertainty — what sort of career you’ll have, how financial markets will perform, what misfortunes will befall you. And there will be misfortunes. he’d had my fair share.

But if you regularly take the right steps—work hard, save part of every paycheck, resist the siren song of get-rich-quick schemes—good things should happen. It isn’t guaranteed. But it’s highly likely. So, for goodness’ sake, fret less about the distant future, and focus more on doing the right things each and every day.

You can follow Jonathan Clements on Twitter @ClementsMoney and on Facebook at Jonathan Clements Money Guide.

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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By Schwab Center for Financial Research

Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We [Charles Schwab] continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy.

The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.

— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy. The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.
— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Uncertain Financial Markets

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“Don’t gamble. Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up; then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” Will Rogers

Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a long-term uptrend. In the crisis’ aftermath, a nearly 11-year bull rally emerged from its ruins becoming the longest-ever uptrend in Wall Street history.

And, the American economy is equally robust as consumer spending remains strong and as the unemployment rate (3.5%) remains at the lowest in 50 years. Despite low employment, Federal Fund interest rates still sit near historical lows and the 10-year Treasury yields only 1.8%.

Financial Crisis

Bringing back painful financial memories for investors, the financial crisis of 2008-2009 wreaked havoc on the stock market. During the crisis, the S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 38.5% of its value in 2008, making it the worst year since the nadir of the Great Recession in 1931.

Today, many economists and financial industry pundits conclude that global economies will face an increasingly uncertain and potentially volatile future. Those future concerns range a gambit of political, geopolitical, economic and socio-political issues.

The uncertainties and concerns include the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, potential turmoil in the Middle East, growing fear regarding cross border spread of the Novel Corona virus, and the growth concerns regarding the economies of the rest of the world economies.

Investing in an Uncertain Environment

“Never under estimate the man who over estimates himself…he may not be wrong all the time.” Charlie Munger

When it comes to investing in an uncertain environment, it is difficult to know what actions to take. But, nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets or can predict the direction with certainty of the global economy. Despite the many self proclaimed stock picking experts who promote their ability to forecast the markets and abilities to select the next Amazon-like stock, it important to always remember that no one knows what will happen in or can accurately forecast the future.

Recently, Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, shared his thoughts about investing in general and regarding Elon Musk and Tesla, specifically. He commented that Elon is “peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time…”.

Additionally, Munger commented that he “…would never buy it [Tesla stock], and [he] would never sell it short.” Prudent investors would be wise to heed Munger’s advice and be concerned not only about potential rewards but, more importantly, also concerned about potential risks investing in hot, high flying stocks.

In Munger’s view, there exist too much “wretched excess” in the market and investors are taking on too much unnecessary risk. He worries that that there are dark clouds looming on the horizon. And, he believes markets and investors are ill-prepared to weather the coming market “trouble”.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wretched-excess-means-theres-lots-of-troubles-coming-warns-berkshire-hathaways-charlie-munger-2020-02-12

Passive Investing

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The ‘father of passive investing’, Burton Malkiel, Princeton University professor emeritus of economics and author of the famous investing book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street“, believes that most investors should invest passively. This idea is embodied by exchange-traded funds that track major stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500, and passive mutual funds.

Malkiel’s theory is that investors are better off buying a broad universe of stocks, index funds, and minimizing fees rather than paying an active manager who may not beat the market. Index funds, also known as passive funds, are structured to invest in the same securities that make up a given index, and seek to match the performance of the index they track, whether positive or negative. As the name implies, no manager or management team actively picks stocks or makes buy and sell decisions.

In contrast, active funds attempt to beat whichever index serves as the fund’s benchmark, although — and this is important — there is no guarantee they will do so. Active managers conduct research, closely monitor market trends and employ a variety of trading strategies to achieve return. But this active involvement comes at a price. Actively-managed funds typically have significantly higher fees and expenses.

A 2016 study by S&P Dow Jones Indices showed that about 90 percent of active stock managers failed to beat their index benchmark targets over the previous one-year, five-year and 10-year periods; fees explain a significant part of that under performance.

Vanguard’s John ‘Jack’ Bogle – Stay the Course

Many industry leaders, including Vanguard’s John ‘Jack’ Bogle, who pioneered index funds, were influenced by Malkiel’s theory on passive investing.

John ‘Jack’ Bogle

Jack Bogle, who founded the pioneering investment firm Vanguard in 1975, is widely regarded as the father of index investing. Index investing is a strategy that functions best when investors sit on their hands for decades. This strategy is far removed from the thrill and excitement of trying to beat the market by picking individual stocks — but one that research says works.

Over the decades, Jack Bogle’s philosophy has acquired a plethora of devout investors whom follow his teachings. His followers, known as the Bogleheads, embrace long-term commitments to broad, boring investments. Bogleheads choose investments that are low-cost index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These low-cost index mutual funds and ETFs are designed to mimic their respective benchmark stock or bond markets, not beat them. Bogleheads’ core belief— stay the course — is so essential to their investment strategy. Bogleheads’ key tips for beginners are:

Early investing is better than perfect investing

Don’t get overwhelmed with your options and let decision paralysis keep you from investing sooner. The magic of compound interest is where your money grows that much faster because you keep earning interest on your interest. To illustrate the strategy, a person who starts investing small amounts in their early 20s will be better off than someone who starts later and invests larger amounts later to catch up.

Stay in the market; Don’t try to time the market

For Bogleheads, the best way to invest is through passively-managed index funds like those pioneered by Vanguard. That way, while your investment will rise and fall with the market, you’re not a victim to any particular company’s misfortune.

Investing in passively-managed funds is a core Boglehead tenet — and research shows the strategy is a sound one. The majority of actively-managed funds have underperformed the stock market for nearly a decade, according to an annual S&P Dow Jones Indices report. In other words, trying to pick winners doesn’t work; simply riding out the market’s ups and downs does.

Don’t peek; Set it and forget it

It is advised that investors check their investments a few times a year—but they shouldn’t react to market volatility or short-term corrections. The key to passive investing is to “set it and forget it”— that is, once you know what you’re investing in, leave it alone, let the market do its thing and be patient.

Over the past decade, passive investment has been closing the gap on active management. Yet, the ‘father of passive investing’ believes there are still too many investors who are not taking advantage of passive investing. Malkiel believes strongly that “…[passive investing] works. It’s the best thing for individual investors to do for the core of their portfolio.”

Keep it simple

In a nutshell, the best approach is a simple, low cost, diversified portfolio of index funds that matches the market return. Don’t try to beat the market—ignore hot tips and check your returns infrequently.

References:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/burton-malkiel-says-his-passive-investing-idea-was-called-garbage.html
    https://money.com/theres-a-super-secret-conference-dedicated-to-investing-legend-jack-bogle-heres-what-its-like-on-the-inside/
    https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf

U.S. Markets Overreacting

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Updated:  Monday, 2/3/2020 at 8:25 am

We never want to downplay the threat posed by the Novel Coronavirus in China and globally. The highly contagious coronavirus is a pneumonia-causing illness that infects an individual’s respiratory tract. It is now responsible for a reported 360 deaths in China as of Monday morning and 17,000 infections, according to Chinese officials and official figures from the World Health Organization. Furthermore, it can be confidently assumed that the Chinese Communist government has drastically under reported the magnitude of the spread and the total number of its citizens effected by the virus.

Consequently, the U.S.represents a relative virgin population for the Novel Coronavirus. Americans have little to no immunity to this strain of virus from previous spreads or vaccination.  Thus it does pose a potential temporary risk and impact to the U.S. economy.

Subsequently, the World Health Organization has declared the fast-spreading coronavirus a global health emergency — a rare designation that should help to contain the spread and outbreak.

On Friday, the Federal government decided to quarantine Americans arriving on U.S. soil from Wuhan and the Guangdong province in southern China. Additionally, the U.S. initiated measures to screen passengers arriving from all other regions of China. Those found without symptoms are released and asked to self isolate themselves for the fourteen days, the prescribed incubation period for the Coronavirus.

U.S. Influenza Season

However, most Americans are not aware that the CDC estimates that there has been 25 million cases of seasonal influenza in the U.S., 250K hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths reported. This is not abnormal for influenza season in the U.S. Moreover, influenza has been assessed as widespread in Puerto Rico and in 49 states.

Image if the media chose to report these statistics like the quantity of seasonal influenza cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S. every hour and had quasi-infectious disease experts on-air to pontificate about the potential severity and potential deaths. Additionally, image if they had their reporters stoke fear by wearing a nurse’s mask to cover their respiratory system and displaying concern in their voices while reporting live from a mall in Chicago.

More than likely, the market would have been impacted by the over reporting of news.

Conclusion

Bottom line, the market has been  freaking out over the coronavirus outbreak, which doesn’t pose a threat to any long-term investor, as long as they remain calm and disciplined.  The media’s coverage and reporting of the coronavirus might be best described as over-dramatic. The effect has been the market sell off and market volatility. Additionally, the media appears to be now over hyping the preventive measure U.S. officials have taken to prevent the spread of the highly contagious virus on U.S. soil.

Friday’s U.S. stock market two percent sell off was definitely an overreaction to the over-reporting and over-hyping by the U.S. entertainment media.

References:

  1. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap