Excerpts from Barron’s article entitled:Yes, It’s a Stock Market Bubble. That Doesn’t Mean Trouble for Investors Just Yet.
By Ben Levisohn, September 12, 2020
“Every stock market bubble begins with a story.”
“”The story began easily enough, if not with “once upon a time.” A virus forced the country to shut down and accelerated the gains in a select few technology stocks that are uniquely capable of thriving with everyone stuck at home. A central bank took quick action to prevent financial markets from seizing up, pushing interest rates about as low as they could go. That helped lift the stocks of companies that are growing, including chiefly the aforementioned tech stocks, even if some have no profits. These stocks were among the first to rally once the stock market bottomed in March.”
“Now, get ready for the plot twist: Good investment ideas can stop being good ideas if the story goes on for too long. The tech trade—including tech companies that aren’t officially labeled as such—went too far before correcting suddenly in the past two weeks.”
“The forces that drove stocks such as Apple and Amazon.com to astonishing heights remain firmly in place. They include the companies’ continued growth, the Federal Reserve’s determination to do whatever it takes to keep the economy afloat, retail investors’ newfound interest in trading, and maybe even a bit of fiscal largess.”
Stocks will remain volatile, but the tech bubble will continue to inflate.
“For an investment bubble to occur, there has to be a widespread belief that a new paradigm has taken hold requiring an adjustment in valuations far beyond what previous fundamentals would imply. This belief needs to engage the imagination of investors beyond Wall Street, and there must be plenty of capital available to chase stock prices higher. The Covid-19 crisis has unlocked all three prerequisites.”
“Consider how the world has changed in the past six months. Social distancing is now the rule, and working from home is encouraged, when possible. Movie theaters are half-empty, and attending school now means opening a laptop at home for many students.”
“Companies that bring us a taste of our previous lives—such as Zoom Video Communications (ZM) and Peloton Interactive (PTON)—have seen their share prices soar. Shares of tech titans Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook (FB) have risen because the businesses are growing far more than most, and investors know that bigger is better in today’s world.”
“Some retail investors, starved for something to bet on in the absence of professional sports, have turned their attention to stocks.”
“At the same time, near-zero interest rates have encouraged investors to pay up for growth, while some retail investors, starved for something to bet on in the absence of professional sports, have turned their attention to stocks, trading through online brokers like it’s 1999.”
“As a result, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Facebook now account for nearly a quarter of the value of the S&P 500 index, a level of concentration rarely seen in the benchmark. And that might understate the influence of Big Tech. Add Amazon and the S&P Information Technology and Communication Services sectors constitute 45% of the benchmark index, according to J.P. Morgan data, compared with 40% during the dot-com bubble.”
“Even as the biggest tech names have seen market caps swell, some formerly small companies have graduated to the big leagues. Zoom, for one, jumped 41% in a single day after reporting sales that more than quadrupled the previous year’s, a consequence of the video service’s widespread adoption beyond a business audience. Zoom stock, having zoomed 465% in 2020, is now worth more than $100 billion. Peloton has a market cap of $25 billion after gaining 209% this year, as its stationary bikes replaced gym memberships.”
“Zoom trades for 50 times 2020 sales, and Peloton, 9.3 times. Both are priced as if future growth is unlimited—a risky bet, especially if the postvirus world looks not all that different from the previrus world.”
The Fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy
“Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Fed is operating the bubble-making machinery. It has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, expanding its own balance sheet to more than $7 trillion from $4.1 trillion at the start of 2020. This time around, its asset purchases have included not only Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities but also investment-grade and high-yield bonds. All of this demand has served to lower interest rates to near zero.”
“The Fed typically has burst past bubbles, including the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, by raising interest rates. Don’t count on that now, or at least not yet. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has effectively promised to keep rates low for years, which means there should be plenty of cash sloshing around to keep the bubble growing.”
“Perhaps the biggest reason to keep betting on tech—and the stock market—is that things aren’t nearly as frothy now as they were during, say, the dot-com bubble. Even in August, the market never reached the sustained frenzy that characterized the late 1990s, when the major indexes went parabolic and stayed that way for months, says Katie Stockton, managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. Stockton thinks the market’s recent pullback will create another buying opportunity, “A bubble would be characterized by prolonged upside momentum,” she says. “The market doesn’t have that.””
To read more: https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-market-is-a-bubble-but-that-doesnt-mean-troubleyet-51599862332?st=zdbk5yoalgbsduv
