Your first loss is your best loss

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Rule Number One: “Your first loss is your best loss,”

Good trading, no matter what it’s based on, technicals, fundamentals, or the news, requires a level of discipline that goes against human nature.

We are taught to be patient, to let things work out, not to be hasty, yet none of that works when it comes to trading. You have to be willing to cut and run, to use that “flight,” not fight, instinct that we supposedly are born with but suppress as we are grown up.

The general trading rule “your first loss is your best loss” is a critical financial adage to embrace because it addresses two trading issues: (a) Getting on the right side of a trade; (b) if one is on the wrong side, one should get out.

Most option or stock trades need to work almost immediately for them to be right. You must be willing to put a trade on and take it off immediately even if it doesn’t feel right. There’s a simple reason for doing so, trade for points, or for at least a point. Less than that is too hard.

But if you’re willing to have a trade go more than a half of a point against you, then it will be almost monumental to get back to even. So be discipline to stop yourself out quickly.

This is a very difficult lesson to learn, but we all need to work on our ability to recognize when we need to take the “first loss” and not try to push/force/manipulate/etc. the situation to create an outcome that will never come to pass.  

The next time you are facing a tough situation that might produce a challenging “loss,” pause for a moment and ask yourself if this is might actually be a good “first loss”.

So, the next time you are hesitant to close a trade or position that is going against you, ask yourself if you will achieve any better result by waiting or holding the position. If you can’t think of what that better result could be, then make the decision to close a position quickly and decisively, and move on. Once it is off your plate, you will be free to go out and do what you do best—make money .

References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/static/command2.html
  2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119202080.ch7
  3. https://lbmjournal.com/your-first-loss-is-your-best-loss/

Democratic Socialism on the Rise in America

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“The strongest argument for socialism is that it sounds good. The strongest argument against socialism is that it doesn’t work. But those who live by words will always have a soft spot in their hearts for socialism because it sounds so good.” Thomas Sowell

Despite winning the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucuses by a wide margin, most Americans fail to appreciate that Senator and Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is not a liberal Democrat or a registered member of the Democratic Party. He is a registered Independent and an unapologetic self-professed Democratic Socialist.

However, as a Senator, he caucuses and aligns himself with the Democrat minority on the floor of the U.S. Senate. And, in the 2020 Presidential primaries, he campaigns and runs as a Democrat in his grassroots attempt to win the party’s nomination.

Additionally, billionaire Democratic Presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg, during a debate stage attack, stated that Senator Bernie Sanders is, “the best known Socialist in America”, and is a multi-millionaire who owns three houses (one in Washington, D.C. and two in Vermont).

According to Roger Altman, Evercore Founder and Senior Chairman, he conveyed on CNBC recently conveyed that under Bernie’s proposed socialist policies:

  1. If you have an employer provided health insurance plan, you’ll lose it.
  2. If you want to decriminalize the southern border, so if individuals are crossing the border illegally, they’ll get the equivalent of a traffic ticket.
  3. If you believe like Bernie that everyone in prison should have the right to vote, then he is your man.
  4. In the important battleground state of Florida, the philosophy of socialism carries very negative connotations and distasteful visceral reminders to many in the Cuban-American, Venezuelan, and Puerto Rican communities within the state.

Only something like ten percent of Americans believe in those Sanders positions. Maybe magic will happen. Record of prediction is unblemished with success.

“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Winston Churchill

World history demonstrates that global Democratic Socialists in the Western Hemisphere have often abandoned the “Democratic” part of their byline and replaced it with authoritarian actions like in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Although, this is believed highly unlikely with the many safeguards guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution.

If elected, Americans should not be surprised when a potentially future President Sanders attempts to steer the country down the path of the failed programs and policies common within socialism. But, socialism has been successful in bringing “shared economic misery” to the citizens of countries like Cube, Venezuela and the former Soviet Union and East Germany.

References:

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/bernie-sanders.html
  2. Roger Altman, Evercore Founder and Senior Chairman, CNBC Squawk on the Street

Conspicuous Spending and Skyrocketing Debt

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“The hard truth is: the amount of money we earn is not always directly proportional to the amount of money we save because, more often than not, the more money we make, the more we spend.” David Bach, author “The Automatic Millionaire”

Let’s face financial reality and an inconvenient truth. Whether on Main Street, Wall Street or Pennsylvania Avenue, Americans continue to have and have long had a spending problem. Government statistics and other studies show that Americans’ spending has generally risen in the years since the 2008 – 2009 Great Recession. This trend is reflected in Americans’ general pattern of consumer spending and reflected in the rising levels of consumer, corporate and public debt which has topped a whopping $75.3 trillion in 2019 according to the stats coming out of the Federal Reserve.

Moreover, Gallup found in an April 2018 poll that people “…want see themselves as fiscally responsible, to some degree.” Even Americans who admit that they are spending more than they earn over the past several months are more likely to claim this is only temporary, rather than their normal. Those who say they are spending less believe it is permanent, despite what the numbers reveal.

And Americans’ have a predilection to say that they enjoy saving more than spending, which rose dramatically between the period before and the period just after the recession, has remained in place, even as the economy has improved.

Positive Cash Flow

Asked about their spending habits, Gallup results show that Americans are as likely to say they are spending the same amount as they used to (35%) as to say they are spending less (35%). Slightly fewer, 30%, report spending more. The takeaway is that Americans’ conspicuous spending habits will not change unless they first acknowledge it as a problem.

On the other hand, most wealthy people understand and stress the importance of spending much less than their means. Spending less gives them financial freedom which then translates into various opportunities such as career mobility, flexibility to venture into activities outside of work, and of course the ability to increase their wealth.

On the other hand, if Americans are spending more than what they earn, then even with a big six-figure income, they will be excessively reliant on each of their paycheck. It is very important that they are financially independent before the time comes when they decide to become self-employed or to retire. So it’s important to start saving, investing and accumulating wealth.

Simply spending less than we earn, eliminating bad debt, managing taxes and fees, paying ourselves first, starting to save early, automatically saving and investing for the long-term, and developing smart financial habits and positive financial mindset will result in huge results over a long period of time.

References:

  1. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20190307/z1.pdf
  2. https://usdebtclock.org
  3. https://news.gallup.com/poll/209432/americans-say-saving-spending.aspx
  4. https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Financial Planning

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It’s not about how much money you earn. It’s what you do with the money that matters.

According to Schwab’s 2019 Modern Wealth Survey, more than 60 percent of Americans who have a written financial plan feel financially stable, while only a third of those without a written financial plan feel that same level of comfort. Those with a plan also maintain healthier money habits when it comes to saving and demonstrate good investing behavior.

The goal of financial planning is to make your money goals a reality. Smart financial planning and long term investing involves in the utmost, spending less than you earn, saving and investing a modest amount each month, and accumulating wealth to end up with the financial assets to retire comfortably for 30 years or more.

Developing a financial plan will require an investor to identify their short-, intermediate- and long-term goals, and to create a long term investment strategy for achieving them. Think of a financial plan as a written planning guide to remind you of what you want, where financially you want to be in the future, and what it will take to get there. Despite the benefits of planning, Schwab’s survey shows that only 28 percent of Americans have a financial plan in writing.

Financial Self assessment

A sound financial plan begins by outlining the investor’s goals as well as any significant constraints. Defining these elements is essential because the plan needs to fit the investor’s current reality. Before creating a financial plan, individuals should first perform a quick self-evaluation:

  • Are you currently spending more than you earn?
  • How much have you already saved?
  • What is your current net worth?
  • Have you created an emergency fund with three to six months of expenses?
  • Are you saving for kid’s college, retirement, or to purchase a home?
  • How much money is available for investing?
  • What is your risk tolerance?
  • Are you buying a stock for fundamental or technical reasons?
  • Which investing style do you prefer (e.g., growth or value, trend or countertrend)?
  • Determine your view of market sentiment: Is momentum generally tilted up or down?

Simple Financial Plan

“I believe that the biggest mistake that most people make when it comes to their retirement is they do not plan for it. They take the same route as Alice in the story from “Alice in Wonderland,” in which the cat tells Alice that surely, she will get somewhere as long as she walks long enough. It may not be exactly where you wanted to get to, but you certainly get somewhere.” Mark Singer, The Changing Landscape of Retirement – What You Don’t Know Could Hurt You

Regardless of the reams of evidence of how critical planning remains, Americans are not spending the time or resources to plan for their financial future or plan for retirement. However, it is relatively straightforward to create a plan. A simple financial plan will include many of the following parts:

  • A personal net worth statement—a snapshot of what you own and what you owe. This will help you know exactly where you stand, and also give you a benchmark against which you can measure your progress.
  • Cash flow is essentially income minus expenses—exactly how much money comes in and goes out every year, and understand if it is sustainable in the long term. The foundation for a budget includes identifying fixed and what’s discretionary expenses and if necessary, devise a debt management plan.
  • A budget–helps to manage your money, to consider your immediate needs and wants, and to prepare you to achieve your long-term financial goals
  • An Emergency fund–ensure adequate cash on hand to cover three to six months of living expenses to handle any unplanned expenses or loss of income.
  • A debt management plan—is a crucial part of becoming financially responsibilities. Debt can be used smartly to achieve one’s financial goals, or debt can be used poorly to buy things a person may not need with money he or she does not have.
  • A retirement plan—specifying how much you need to save each year to achieve the lifestyle you and your family hope to maintain. This includes a recommendation on how best to maximize Social Security benefits, to incorporate any pension funds and to utilize personal savings.
  • An analysis of how current investment portfolio aligns with short, intermediate and long-term goals.
  • A plan for college education funding offspring.
  • A review of employee benefits, including equity compensation or deferred income planning.
  • A review of insurance coverage—the key is to make sure that you have the right types and amounts and that you aren’t paying for unnecessary coverage.
  • Planning for special needs—for a child, parent, or other dependent.
  • Recommendations for creating or updating your estate plan, including charitable giving and legacy planning

Financial planning and managing your money:

  1. What are your long term financial goals including a retirement number and what does financial independence look like for you and your family lifestyle dream.
  2. Determine and track your financial net worth (assets – liabilities)
  3. Figure out your personal cash flow (income – expenses) that reflects the money coming in minus money going out…determine the source of money and where it is going…develop a budget.
  4. Align your financial goals to your spending.  Connect your spending habits to your priorities. Objective is to become financial independent in both the short and long term.
  5. Manage health, home owners, automobile, personal liability, long term care and life insurances to manage and mitigate your personal risks.
  6. Avoid debt and reduce taxes legally by starting your own business or investing in tax free or deferred assets.
  7. Create an investment plan and strategy for purchasing assets such as equities, real estate or a business. A plan helps an investor focus on long term goals and helps remove emotions (greed and fear) and bad behaviors from investment decisions.  Markets will always go up and down.  You only lose money if you sell assets and lock in the loss.  Buy real estate in great locations and companies doing sensible things and participate in global growth.
  8. Have a trust and estate plan in place to protect your assets. Ensure your goals and desires for your assets reflect your values and objectives.

Retirement and Financial Planning and Goals 

“Our goals can only be reached through a vehicle of a plan in which we must fervently believe, and upon which we must vigorously act. There is no other route to success.” Pablo Picasso

The first steps of retirement planning are to define your long term retirement and financial goals, to establish your number, and write a retirement plan. 

Any sound financial plan requires that you figure out your retirement expenses in advance. And, a retirement can now last 30 years. A retirement plan isn’t something you set up once and then leave unattended. A successful retirement plan takes patience, attention, and discipline.

  • Planning for retirement involves identifying assets and sources of income, and matching against retirement expenses.
  • Planning for retirement involves setting financial, health and emotional including spiritual retirement goals.

An individual may have a higher probability to achieve their goals if they have a specific savings number and long-term goals in mind, which can help keep an individual on track along the way. It gives someone a target against which they can measure progress.

Key elements of a strong financial plan:

  • An emergency fund
  • A budget to determine cash flow and calculating net worth
  • Paying down and avoiding debt
  • Health and disability insurance
  • Start saving and investing early, pay yourself first and put it on automatic
  • Pay yourself first
  • Create long term goals
  • Saving and investing for retirement and/or college
  • Saving and investing for shorter term goals like vacations or a home purchase
  • Trusts, wills and estate planning

It is important to find creative ways to spend less — such as exploring local or nearby attractions that are free or less expensive.

After creating your financial goal or plan, you are bound to have times when you don’t reach your goals or you diverge from your plan. But, just like with a diet, if you make a bad food choice, it doesn’t mean you throw out your new way of healthy eating or exercising. Same thing with financial goals and plan. Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement.

But how much is enough? Strategies to calculate the size of the nest egg you’ll need for your  golden years. But then life happens, and in life there are unknown variables and unexpected events that can throw a wrench into even the best-laid plans. Still, it’s better to have a plan, rather than to fly blindly into the sunset.

  • One popular rule of thumb is that you’ll need to have saved 10 times your final annual salary by the time you are 67.
  • Another way to calculate this ultimate goal is to look at current living expenses—annual or monthly—and assume that, in retirement, you will incur about 80% of those expenses.
  • Some retirement planning professionals suggest using “the 4% rule” to determine how much retirees can withdraw from their retirement account each year in order to provide a continuing income stream. 

Sock away as much as you can.

Power of Compound Interest

Use the power of compound interest —which is interest earned on top of interest — to potentially enhance returns.  Because compound interest builds on itself over time, investors who start early tend to have a significant advantage over those who wait,

compounding-no-amtd

Calculate how much money you may need once you get to retirement.

There are several common financial retirement concerns individuals have. Managing risks are important for retirees because retirees don’t have time to wait for a recovery of the economy or the market after a down period.

  • Investment Loss – One of the biggest financial fears retirees may have is investment loss. Because the markets move cyclically, there’s a good chance you’ll experience a market downturn during retirement.
  • Running Out of Money – Once you’re close to or in retirement, a market decline cannot be weathered and running out of money becomes a serious concern.
  • Major Health Event – As we get older, it’s common to see an increased need for health care. It’s natural, as a retiree, to worry about a major health event that can set you back financially. But it’s possible to prepare to some degree for such events.
  • Inflationary Effects – Inflation is sometimes considered the “quiet killer” of retirement. Over time, prices rise, making your money less valuable. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Keeping up with inflation is an important part of retirement planning.

Although it may seem like a long way off, starting earlier can help you accumulate wealth and deal with unexpected bumps along the way. It’s important to consider:

  • What do you want out of retirement?
  • How much do you currently take in and spend?
  • How much will you need to maintain a comfortable lifestyle?

As a rule of thumb, you’ll need between 60-80%* of your current income to maintain your standard of living, but this will vary based upon how soon you enter retirement. To help you estimate these considerations use our tools below.

Financial independence and building wealth comes with the knowledge and financial literacy. It’s okay not to spend more than you earn and sacrifice short term benefit for long term financial independence. Think about the end goal — to secure your well being physically, emotionally and financially!

Manage Your Investments and Cash Flow

It’s easy to put things off until tomorrow… or maybe the next day. But with retirement, planning for cash flow (income) and nest egg are required today. And contributing regularly can help you accumulate assets faster.

Developing a financial plan, monthly budget and learning to stay within their boundaries will help you make these contributions. Additionally, your financial plan and budget will help you track your spending, cash flow, net worth and develop the discipline that can help you when you finally enter retirement.

When creating a budget, carefully weigh competing demands such as:

  • Paying off debt
  • Managing a mortgage
  • Taking a vacation
  • Raising a family
  • Saving for college or retirement

See how these financial considerations – and waiting to invest for retirement – can cost you in the long run.

Implement Your Plan

After assessing your situation, it’s time to look into available choices and then start investing. When weighing your options, consider:

  • How involved you want to be in managing your assets.
  • Whether there are any benefits to using your employer’s retirement plan.

Depending on your answers to these questions, some products may be better suited to your needs. If you’re the do-it-yourself-type, an index fund that mimics the S&P 500 may be the best choice. For those who aren’t comfortable with or don’t want to be managing their assets closely, a managed portfolio such as a target date fund might be the right way to get started.

Evaluate and Adjust Your Plan

It’s important to monitor your financial plan and investment strategy regularly. As your situation changes, you may need to adjust your allocations or investment strategy. No matter what plan you’re using, or whether you’re doing it on your own or with the help of a financial advisor, it’s important to evaluate your progress from time to time.

The starting point for financial planning start with goals you can achieve. If you don’t know where you’re going, how can you plan to get there? So before you get into the details of saving, budgeting and investing, take time to think about what’s most important to you and what you want your money to achieve.

  • Have an financial plan that is simple, goal oriented, realistic and actionable.
  • Understand your plan, follow it, and adjust it when things change in your life.

Put your plan into action.

  • Keep your portfolio diversified with an asset allocation that’s right for your risk tolerance—and stick with it.
  • Don’t wait. If you invest now, you’ll start earning sooner.

Stay on track.

  • Do periodic checkups to keep your portfolio healthy.
  • Keep in mind that long-term goals are more important than short-term performance.

References:

  1. https://www.aboutschwab.com/modernwealth2019
  2. https://www.brownleeglobal.com/saving-vs-investing/

10 Money Lessons He Wished Heard — or Listened to — When Younger | MarketWatch

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Updated: February 23, 2020

Jonathan Clements, author of “From Here to Financial Happiness” and “How to Think About Money,” and editor of HumbleDollar.com., is the former personal-finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal. He has devoted his entire adult life to learning about money.

That might sound like cruel-and-unusual punishment, but he has mostly enjoyed it. For more than three decades, he has spent his days perusing the business pages, reading finance books, scanning academic studies and talking to countless folks about their finances.

Yet, despite this intense financial education, it took him a decade or more to learn many of life’s most important money lessons and, indeed, some key insights have only come to him in recent years.

Here are 10 things he wished he’d been told in his 20s—or told more loudly, so he actually listened:

— Read on www.marketwatch.com/story/10-money-lessons-i-wish-id-listened-to-when-i-was-younger-2020-02-12

1. A small home is the key to a big portfolio. Financially, it turned out to be one of the smartest things he had ever done, because it allowed him to save great gobs of money. That’s clear to him in retrospect. But he wished he’d known it was a smart move at the time, because he wouldn’t have wasted so many hours wondering whether he should have bought a larger place.

2. Debts are negative bonds. From his first month as a homeowner, he sent in extra money with his mortgage payment, so he could pay off the loan more quickly. But it was only later that he came to view his mortgage as a negative bond—one that was costing him dearly. Indeed, paying off debt almost always garners a higher after-tax return than you can earn by investing in high-quality bonds.

3. Watching the market and your portfolio doesn’t improve performance. This has been another huge time waster. It’s a bad habit he belatedly trying to break.

4. Thirty years from now, you’ll wish you’d invested more in stocks. Yes, over five or even 10 years, there’s some chance you’ll lose money in the stock market. But over 30 years? It’s highly likely you’ll notch handsome gains, especially if you’re broadly diversified and regularly adding new money to your portfolio in good times and bad.

5. Nobody knows squat about short-term investment performance. One of the downsides of following the financial news is that you hear all kinds of smart, articulate experts offering eloquent predictions of plummeting share prices and skyrocketing interest rates that—needless to say—turn out to be hopelessly, pathetically wrong. In his early days as an investor, this was, alas, the sort of garbage that would give him pause.

6. Put retirement first. Buying a house or sending your kids to college shouldn’t be your top goal. Instead, retirement should be. It’s so expensive to retire that, if you don’t save at least a modest sum in your 20s, the math quickly becomes awfully tough—and you’ll need a huge savings rate to amass the nest egg you need.

7. You’ll end up treasuring almost nothing you buy. Over the years, he had had fleeting desires for all kinds of material goods. Most of the stuff he purchased has since been thrown away. This is an area where millennials seem far wiser than us baby boomers. They’re much more focused on experiences than possessions—a wise use of money, says happiness research.

8. Work is so much more enjoyable when you work for yourself. These days, he earn just a fraction of what he made during my six years on Wall Street, but he is having so much more fun. No meetings to attend. No employee reviews. No worries about getting to the office on time or leaving too early. he is working harder today than he ever have. But it doesn’t feel like work—because it’s his choice and it’s work he is passionate about.

9. Will our future self approve? As we make decisions today, he think this is a hugely powerful question to ask—and yet it’s only in recent years that he had learned to ask it.

When we opt not to save today, we’re expecting our future self to make up the shortfall. When we take on debt, we’re expecting our future self to repay the money borrowed. When we buy things today of lasting value, we’re expecting our future self to like what we purchase.

Pondering our future self doesn’t just improve financial decisions. It can also help us to make smarter choices about eating, drinking, exercising and more.

10. Relax, things will work out. As he watch his son, daughter and son-in-law wrestle with early adult life, he glimpse some of the anxiety that he suffered in my 20s and 30s.

When you’re starting out, there’s so much uncertainty — what sort of career you’ll have, how financial markets will perform, what misfortunes will befall you. And there will be misfortunes. he’d had my fair share.

But if you regularly take the right steps—work hard, save part of every paycheck, resist the siren song of get-rich-quick schemes—good things should happen. It isn’t guaranteed. But it’s highly likely. So, for goodness’ sake, fret less about the distant future, and focus more on doing the right things each and every day.

You can follow Jonathan Clements on Twitter @ClementsMoney and on Facebook at Jonathan Clements Money Guide.

Ideas for Frugal Living | Three Life Lessons | Fidelity

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“The lessons they taught us about money—about not spending more than we have, saving what we can, and splurging occasionally and mindfully”

Three (3) lasting lessons from my frugal parent

Frugal living can help separate the important financial expenses from the not so important. Learn helpful lessons and ideas on frugal living here.

BY JEANNE THOMPSON FROM FIDELITY – 06/07/2019

I’ll never forget my first “real” vacation.

Most of our family vacations were camping trips where we slept together in a tent or a pop-up trailer and my mom cooked for my 4 siblings and me at the campsite. But the summer after fifth grade, my father decided to take me, my mom, and my 2 older sisters with him on a business trip to California.

That trip really stood out. I remember relaxing by the pool in sunny San Diego, sipping Shirley Temples with my sisters. We were fascinated by the elevators in our big hotel and rode them up and down until we were sternly told to stop. Simply put, it was paradise.

This trip was an unusual extravagance for my parents, too. You can’t raise 5 children on a limited income without being very frugal. And my parents, who were both first-generation Americans, were used to getting by on very little. Excess was not an option. At Christmas, my mom would save nice wrapping paper and reuse it; boxes were also recycled for many holidays to come. Folding a little piece of wrapping paper in half, writing a note inside, and taping it to a gift worked just as well as buying a greeting card. She reused everything from tin foil to plastic baggies. Her approach to money and possessions was pretty consistent: “Make do with what you have.”

These habits and quirks used to make us laugh. Today, I appreciate the example my parents set. I resist spending money on big-ticket items. My car, for instance, is a 2010 model and has 150,000 miles on it. And most of the furniture in our house is at least a decade old (if not a few decades). I’m not about spending a lot on furniture —with a teenage son, our couch becomes a dumping ground for lacrosse equipment more often than not. I even save nice wrapping paper from time to time, much to the amusement of my kids. And because of the warm memories from that long-ago California trip, I’d much rather spend money on experiences my family can enjoy, like vacations, than on stuff.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I like to believe that my parents’ mindful approach to spending lives on in my kids, who seem to appreciate the value of a dollar on some days at least. My college-age daughter takes pride in her 5-star rating on a ride-hailing app because it entitles her to discounts and coupons. My son, a high school senior, is already savvy about mutual funds and 401(k)s—thanks to conversations he tunes into at home and an intro to business class he takes at school. Both kids know that they need to budget for indulgences beyond the basics and that they’ll have to pay for them with money earned from their jobs.

Both of my parents are gone now, but their frugal approach to working diligently and saving money allowed them to raise kids. And not only that: They put enough away to build a nest egg that funded some retirement travel to Europe, Russia, and Alaska in their golden years. By then my father came around to reasoning: “You can’t take it with you.”

They still managed to leave something behind. The lessons they taught us about money—about not spending more than we have, saving what we can, and splurging occasionally and mindfully—are with all of us. And those occasional splurges they encouraged us to enjoy are as sweet as those long-ago Shirley Temples under the warm California sun.

— Read on www.fidelity.com/mymoney/frugal-living-ideas-and-life-lessons

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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By Schwab Center for Financial Research

Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We [Charles Schwab] continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy.

The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.

— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Huawei’s Threat to Communications Networks

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Updated: Saturday, 2/15/2020

“Most people are starting to realize that there are only two different types of companies in the world: those that have been breached and know it and those that have been breached and don’t know it. Therefore, prevention is not sufficient and you’re going to have to invest in detection because you’re going to want to know what system has been breached as fast as humanly possible so that you can contain and remediate.” Ted Schlein, a venture capitalist with Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.

To begin the discussion, it is important to understand that communications, such as telecommunications and internet data networks, are vital to national security and are critical infrastructure for every sovereign nation. Since critical electrical grids, 5G technology, autonomous vehicles and even hospitals rely on the communication networks.

U.S. Intelligence Sharing

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned allies that letting the Chinese firm Huawei build their next-generation, or 5G, network risks their security cooperation and information sharing arrangements with U.S. intelligence and national security agencies. The U.S. SECDEF remarked that, “reliance on Chinese 5G vendors, for example, could render our partners’ critical systems vulnerable to disruption, manipulation and espionage,” in a speech at the high-level Munich Security Conference in early 2020. “It could also jeopardize our communication and intelligence sharing capabilities, and by extension, our alliances.”

“National security is a serious matter and I do not think it is improper to discuss such details in a public forum.” Narendra Modi

One recent morning on Yahoo Finance, an on-air guest was dismissive about Huawei 5G technology and the U.S. Administration’s allegations that the Chinese technology giant has built backdoors to communication networks that they installed across the globe. Additionally the on-air guest stated that the Trump Administration needs to provide evidence of Huawei’s complicity to spy for China.

What the guest commentator omitted from his less than transparent comments was that unlike U.S. technology and telecommunications companies, Huawei has functioned as a tool for surveillance and espionage for the Communist Chinese government. In addition, they have been significantly subsidized for more than a decade by the Chinese authoritarian government. Thus, this is the reason that they can substantially underbid their Western competitors on 5G network projects across the globe.

Furthermore, despite Huawei’s adamant denials, they have built backdoors into the communications systems that include Huawei technology, equipment and software, or in networks that have been installed by them or their affiliates. Essentially, a backdoor is a method of bypassing a network’s security protocols to access communications or computer network.

Vodafone in Italy

U.S. Intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned allies regarding the potential threat posed by Huawei’s technology if installed in 5G networks. Back in April 2019, Yahoo Finance reposted a Bloomberg article that Vodafone Group, Europe’s biggest phone company, discovered hidden backdoors in the software installed by Huawei that could have given Huawei or the Chinese government unauthorized access into the Vodafone’s voice and data network. Although the backdoor was discovered and reportedly removed by Huawei, subsequent investigations by Vodafone discovered the the backdoor remained.

“We’re talking about the fate of our economy and the questionable resiliency of our Nation’s critical infrastructure. Why are experts so polite, patient, and forgiving when talking about cybercrime, cyber security, and National Security? The drama of each script kiddie botnet attack and Nation State pilfering of our IP has been turned into a soap opera through press releases, sound bites and enforced absurdity of mainstream media. It’s time for a cybersecurity zeitgeist in the West where cyber hygiene is a meme that is aggressively distributed by those who have mastered it and encouraged to be imitated by those who have experienced it.” James Scott.

Deterring Chinese cyber-espionage

We must not allow ourselves either to be misled by Chinese repeated denials or to rely solely on U.S. entertainment media’s reporting by omission regarding the cyber security risks posed to U.S. and its allies’ communications networks once Huawei’s equipment is installed. Effectively, Huawei is a Chinese Communist state-controlled enterprise. And, it operates at the behest of the Chinese Communist Party in surveilling their own citizens, and assisting with spying and espionage against foreign nations.

Bottomline, Huawei, and its affiliates, represent a national security threat to the United States, our allies, and our privacy. If they’re permitted to install their technology, equipment and software in critical communications infrastructure, backdoors and unencumbered access would exist. Their technology does pose a real threat to the economy, the critical communications networks and the critical infrastructure that relies on the communications backbone.

References:

  1. https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/02/15/esper-huawei-5g-could-risk-us-information-and-security-ties/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Socialflow+DFN
  2. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/it-networks/5g/2020/02/12/white-house-claims-huawei-equipment-has-backdoor-for-spying/
  3. https://www.state.gov/huawei-and-its-siblings-the-chinese-tech-giants-national-security-and-foreign-policy-implications/
  4. https://www.forbes.com/sites/haroldfurchtgottroth/2017/05/08/chinese-government-helps-huawei-with-5g/#67ea148b6bae
  5. https://www.rickscott.senate.gov/sen-rick-scott-attorney-general-barr-keep-huawei-out-us-markets
  6. https://securityfirstcorp.com/cyber-security-quotes/

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy. The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.
— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Uncertain Financial Markets

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“Don’t gamble. Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up; then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” Will Rogers

Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a long-term uptrend. In the crisis’ aftermath, a nearly 11-year bull rally emerged from its ruins becoming the longest-ever uptrend in Wall Street history.

And, the American economy is equally robust as consumer spending remains strong and as the unemployment rate (3.5%) remains at the lowest in 50 years. Despite low employment, Federal Fund interest rates still sit near historical lows and the 10-year Treasury yields only 1.8%.

Financial Crisis

Bringing back painful financial memories for investors, the financial crisis of 2008-2009 wreaked havoc on the stock market. During the crisis, the S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 38.5% of its value in 2008, making it the worst year since the nadir of the Great Recession in 1931.

Today, many economists and financial industry pundits conclude that global economies will face an increasingly uncertain and potentially volatile future. Those future concerns range a gambit of political, geopolitical, economic and socio-political issues.

The uncertainties and concerns include the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, potential turmoil in the Middle East, growing fear regarding cross border spread of the Novel Corona virus, and the growth concerns regarding the economies of the rest of the world economies.

Investing in an Uncertain Environment

“Never under estimate the man who over estimates himself…he may not be wrong all the time.” Charlie Munger

When it comes to investing in an uncertain environment, it is difficult to know what actions to take. But, nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets or can predict the direction with certainty of the global economy. Despite the many self proclaimed stock picking experts who promote their ability to forecast the markets and abilities to select the next Amazon-like stock, it important to always remember that no one knows what will happen in or can accurately forecast the future.

Recently, Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, shared his thoughts about investing in general and regarding Elon Musk and Tesla, specifically. He commented that Elon is “peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time…”.

Additionally, Munger commented that he “…would never buy it [Tesla stock], and [he] would never sell it short.” Prudent investors would be wise to heed Munger’s advice and be concerned not only about potential rewards but, more importantly, also concerned about potential risks investing in hot, high flying stocks.

In Munger’s view, there exist too much “wretched excess” in the market and investors are taking on too much unnecessary risk. He worries that that there are dark clouds looming on the horizon. And, he believes markets and investors are ill-prepared to weather the coming market “trouble”.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wretched-excess-means-theres-lots-of-troubles-coming-warns-berkshire-hathaways-charlie-munger-2020-02-12