One of super-investor Howard Mark’s favorite investment truths is:

“You can’t analyze the future.”

He stated that the future is entirely unknown and hasn’t happened yet. And, it’s too complex, too uncertain to predict with certainty. Anyone acting with certainty is probably wrong.

Nobody knows the future, not the Fed, not economists, not smart money investors. Forecasts by financial news “talking heads and financial experts” are, at best, informed guesses and opinions, often dressed up in confidence.

Moreover, no one can successfully “time the market” over the long term.

Marks warns against the common retail investor mindset: “…waiting for the dust to settle.”

This strategy by investors of “waiting for volatility to calm” may sound cautious, but it’s dangerous. By the time things feel “safe,” the market has likely recovered and you’ve missed the best opportunities.

For example, back in 2007 – 2008, nobody knew what would happen in the upcoming months regarding the Financial Crisis.

When there was economic panic and fear everywhere in calendar year 2008, Howard Marks invested. He invested not because he knew things would get better, but because betting on the end of the world rarely pays off. In his informed view:

“Most of the time, the world doesn’t end.”

So what should retail investors do?

“When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”

Marks concludes that fear creates opportunities.
If you wait until the news is good and the outlook is clear, you’re already late.

Bottom-line, the best investments should feel uncomfortable when you make them.

Source:  https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/uncertainty.pdf