Politicians rarely let facts get in the way of a good sound bite and political theater.
Experience, economics and simple logic tell you that anything Congress does to “fix” a situation, like high consumer energy prices, will probably do more harm than good, writes Fisher Investment’s manager Elisabeth Dellinger, Senior Editor of MarketMinder. So it is a blessing for equity stocks and financial markets that gridlock on Capitol Hill will likely block any energy related legislation coming out of Washington.
Recently, Congress indulged in one of its favorite pastimes: a public flogging of large company chief executives…on this occasion the targets were major energy company chief executive officers. Politicians have accused the industry of price gouging, and a couple of Senators have proposed windfall profits taxes for energy companies.
The allegations at the Congressional hearings appear ‘more politics than substance’. For one, gas prices have ticked down slightly for three straight weeks. In reality, gas prices tend to follow oil at a lag, so gas’s failure to match oil’s rate of decline over the past four weeks isn’t a shock.
Moreover, the oil executives offered some simple, logical answers why gasoline prices haven’t matched the magnitude of oil’s retreat. Some cited rising costs and shortages of drilling equipment as well as transportation bottlenecks. Others pointed out that the industry is still dealing with the wild swings induced by lockdowns, which brought swift production cuts—and then a need for fast restarts when the companies didn’t have the labor or equipment to oblige.
And, there is a third reason, writes Dellinger: Oil isn’t the only major ingredient in gasoline. The ethanol mandate is still the law of the land. Gasoline sold in the US is required to have a certain amount of ethanol blended with refined petroleum—typically around 10% of every gallon. Ethanol is a “renewable” fuel derived from corn, which has jumped in price since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Corn is now up 42.2% over the past six months, and unlike crude oil, it hasn’t backed down from the post-invasion spike.[iii] Demand from all corners is keeping the price high, and that is feeding into prices at the pump.
But Congressional hearings are rarely about the truth and facts, especially when the facts put Congress’s past deeds in a bad light. True to form, politicians highlight a hot-button issue, press the blame button and advance a politically motivated policy solution, even though it isn’t likely to pass.
Senators’ have offered windfall tax proposals which are in response to claims that these taxes are necessary because energy firms are restraining supplies and production to keep prices up, tied to “financial discipline” demanded of oil firms by investors. Although these are strong emotional appeals intended for their loyal constituents, but the facts demonstrate that there isn’t much evidence of actual excessive windfall profits.
“Energy is a cyclical business, and companies won’t survive if they can’t bank on having good times to counterbalance the bad”, writes Dellinger. “If eventual profits can’t offset losses, there is no math there for shareholders or creditors. Essentially, a windfall tax implemented now would punish companies for surviving. Moreover, it would destroy the incentive to invest. What is the point in stomaching the high upfront costs it takes to drill and pump new wells if there is a risk the government will confiscate your profits retroactively? How can you plan? Retroactive taxes kill investment, and doing this in the oil and gas industry would probably whack US oil production, making prices even higher over time.”
On the bright side, the likelihood this windfall tax legislation goes anywhere stands about zero. The 50/50 Senate hasn’t managed to pass anything contentious and probably won’t start now—not with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who has effective veto power, representing a state with a big natural gas and coal industry.
Midterms currently look poised to deepen gridlock next year. Angry Congressional political tweets and sound bites might stoke fear and hit constituents’ sentiment during midterm campaigns, but financial markets should quickly view that these bills are likely to be ‘dead on arrival’.
Conversely, NYT foreign affairs columnist Thomas Friedman suggests that the U.S. needs to implement an ‘oil import tax’ that sets the price of oil in America at around $50 to $60 per barrel. This tax, he opines, would provide a stable, predictable price for oil companies, and eliminate the wild price swings and volatility in oil prices American have experienced over the past two decades.
“One of our learnings from past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis.” Bill Ackman, Pershing Square
References:
- https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/dont-let-the-politicking-on-gas-prices-fool-you
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 4/6/2022. US regular all formulations gas prices, 3/14/2022 – 4/4/2022. Data are weekly.
- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/04/08/the-us-needs-an-oil-import-tax-says-nyts-thomas-friedman.html