Category Archives: Building Wealth

Small Cap Investing

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A focus on finding small cap companies with great fundamentals and big growth prospects.

A small-cap stock is a stock of a publicly-traded company whose market capitalization ranges from $300 million to approximately $2 billion, explains Corporate Finance Institute. The word “cap” in this term refers to a company’s market capitalization.

Savvy investors cannot afford to overlook small-cap growth companies. Although, there are several pros and cons of investing in small-cap stocks that must be considered.

Small-cap companies, in general, tend not to get the same kind of publicity as their large-cap siblings. They aren’t going to lead a segment on CNBC or the home page of the Wall Street Journal on a daily basis.

With smaller market capitalizations, small-cap companies tend to fly under the radar.

The Rise of Small-Cap Stocks

Reasons that people may invest in small-cap companies are capital appreciation — they think the stock price will go up and dividends — where the company pays you to hold it.

But some of these are solid companies and excellent small-cap stocks to buy.

Small-cap equities are more sensitive to the economy (inflation, rising interest rates and dollar strength), so a robust economic rebound would favor them.

Small-cap stocks are popular among investors because of their potential for providing better returns in the long term relative to their large-cap peers.

The advantages of investing in small-cap stocks are:

1. Growth potential – Relative to bigger companies, small-cap companies show significantly higher growth potential. For small-cap companies, it is easier to grow significantly their operational and financial base than is the case for most large-cap stocks.

Picking the right small-cap stock can turn into a profitable investment.

2. High probability of inefficiencies in the market – Information about the small-cap stocks is harder to find compared to large and mid-cap companies. Analysts typically give little attention to these companies; thus, there is a high probability of improper pricing of small-cap stocks. This situation creates vast opportunities for investors to leverage the inefficiencies in market pricing and earn a great return on their investments.

3. Financial institutions do not push prices up – Financial institutions, including mutual and hedge funds, should comply with certain regulations that do not allow them to invest heavily in small-cap stocks. For this reason, it is unlikely that the stock price will be artificially pushed up because of large investments from major financial institutions.

Nevertheless, there are some disadvantages of investing in small-cap stocks:

1. High risk – Investing in small-cap stocks involves higher risk. First, small-cap companies may have an unreliable and faulty business model which can result in company’s management not being able to adjust the business model, and can result in poor operational and financial results. And, small-cap companies usually have less access to new capital and new sources of financing. Due to this reason, it is more likely that the company will not be able to bridge gaps in its cash flows or expand the business because of the inability to undertake the necessary investments.

2. Low liquidity – Small-cap stocks are less liquid than their large counterparts. Low liquidity results in the potential unavailability of the stock at a good price to purchase or it may be difficult to sell the stocks at a favorable price. Low liquidity also adds to the overall risk of the stock.

3. Time-consuming – Investing in small-cap stocks can be a time-consuming activity. Due to the under-coverage of small-cap stocks by financial media, institutions and analysts, the amount of available research on small-cap companies is usually limited.

Moreover, small cap technology and all small cap stocks are discounted to a great degree by investors in a rising interest rate environment, purely due to the fact that they have the bulk of potential earnings and cash flow far out into the future. The higher long-term rates are, the less those future earnings and cash flow are worth. This goes for virtually all unprofitable growth tech stocks.

Essentially, small-cap stocks may provide investors with an opportunity to earn a substantial return on their investments. However, this type of investing should be approached with caution as small-cap stocks are often risky and volatile.

References:

  1. https://investorplace.com/2022/11/7-excellent-small-cap-stocks-to-buy-before-this-year-ends/
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/wealth-management/small-cap-stock/
  3. https://news.yahoo.com/10-best-small-cap-stocks-140302020.html

Tongue is Like a Rudder on a Ship

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The tongue is like the rudder of a ship in that it steers a person’s life in the same way the rudder steers a ship. Even in the midst of fierce winds and strong currents, the rudder is powerful enough to steer the ship. In the same way, no matter the circumstances, the tongue is powerful enough to steer a person’s life. 

In life, your tongue steers and determines your life. Words spoken by your tongue determine the direction and the destination of your life, just like the rudder of a ship determines the direction a ship will go.

Words may not cause you to arrive at the destination immediately, but they head you in that direction, and eventually, if you continue in that direction, you will arrive there.

Your words are very powerful. Even when it seems that circumstances are against you, your tongue holds more power than the circumstances.

If you want to change the circumstances and the direction your life is headed, then change the words you are speaking! Your words are very powerful. 

But this principle can also work against you. If you are a person who says things like “I always get sick, nothing good ever happens to me, etc”, then you are likely seeing those things as reality in your life. 

If you want to change your circumstances, change your thoughts and the words that are coming out of your mouth. If you want to see good days, learn to control the thoughts you are thinking and to choose carefully the words you are speaking. 

People who don’t understand the power of words are constantly saying things that they don’t really mean, and they train their bodies not to believe or take their words seriously. Therefore, when it comes time to rebuke sickness or command healing, their bodies don’t respond the way they should.  

Start controlling your tongue by speaking the word of positivity and victory out loud. This will train your thoughts and tongue to speak goodness and positivity, even in contrary circumstances. Start to think about the words you speak. Your life will get better and better and you will begin to see the good and positivity become a reality in your life!

Pay attention to your words and to your conversations with others understanding that what you are saying is actually directing and steering your life. The Bible says in James 3:4-5; “Look at the ships also: though they are so large and are driven by strong winds, they are guided by a very small rudder wherever the will of the pilot directs. So also the tongue is a small member, yet it boasts of great things.”

Whom you are is an expression of your inner dialogue. Your ‘inner dialogue’ is quite simply your thoughts. It is the little voice in your head that comments on your life, whether that is what is going on around you, or what you are thinking consciously or sub-consciously. All of us have an internal dialogue, and it runs all the time.

It’s essential that you observe the tone you use in your internal dialogue. Adopt the type of tone that a loved one would use if they were reassuring you. Or reflect on how you would speak to someone who was struggling with something. Work to speak calmly and compassionately to yourself, even when you hit a setback.

Speaking creates how you think, how you move, where you go. Talk to yourself or have dialogue with yourself in such a way that brings you into action, doing and being the things that you want.

The ultimate direction your life takes will be determined by how well you control your tongue. Perfectly controlling your speech is tough work, but the payoff will be immense. A warm tone helps you accept yourself just as you are. Everyone has limitations, and accepting yourself and controlling your tongue, limitations and all, leads to setting the correct course and heading in the right direction.

References:

  1. https://sbnonline.com/article/the-tongue-is-like-a-rudder-on-a-ship/
  2. https://walkwiththewise.org/how-is-the-tongue-like-the-rudder-of-a-ship/
  3. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/having-sex-wanting-intimacy/201707/the-power-your-internal-dialogue

EBITDA

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EBITDA, (or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization), is an accounting term that is an alternative way to measure a company’s profitability.

EBITDA is simply an acronym:

To calculate EBITDA, you start with Net Income (also known as Earnings). Then you add back Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization

EBITDA is a Non-GAAP number, meaning it doesn’t comply with “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” For that reason, you won’t see it on many companies’ financial statements. However, some management teams do provide it and focus on it heavily.

Amortization & Depreciation are the accounting process of writing down the value of an asset over time:

  • Depreciation is the accounting method used to allocate the cost of a TANGIBLE asset over its useful life. A TANGIBLE asset is something you can physically touch (house, car, factory). Depreciation represents how much of a tangible asset’s value has been “used up”.
  • Amortization is the accounting process of writing down the value of a loan or an INTANGIBLE asset. It’s VERY similar to depreciation, but amortization happens to “Intangible” assets, which are assets that you can’t physically touch (patents, trademarks, goodwill).

Although Wall Street might love EBITDA, many investors do not. Why? EBITDA can be very misleading. Ignoring “depreciation” as an expense is a big reason why, as Buffett explained in 2017.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/author/14471/

Investment strategy is to buy and hold for the long-term high-quality companies, and then let compounding work its magic.

Psychology of Building Wealth and Investing

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“A mindset that can be paranoid and optimistic at the same time is hard to maintain, because seeing things as black or white takes less effort than accepting nuance. But you need short-term paranoia to keep you alive long enough to exploit long-term optimism. Jesse Livermore figured this out the hard way.” ― Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money

There are several mental and emotional traits that are important for being a successful long-term investor, according to the Ethical Entrepreneur. The factors are:

  1. Being calm and unemotional. Keep away from and ignore the over-hyped financial and headline news when it comes to investing. Avoid excitement and speculation – if your personality craves these then you may not be well suited to investing. One way to combat the adrenaline cravings is to invest using a process – develop some rules and stick to them.
  2. Not being greedy. You will never, ever sell at the top and buy at the bottom with every investment you make. It’s impossible. The sooner you accept this and move on with developing your strategy, the better off you will be. If you feel yourself starting to get greedy “just another 10%”, sell and move on.
  3. Not being overly fearful. Listening to daily (or hourly basis) financial and headline news is only guaranteed to stoke needless anxieties and panic, neither of which are conducive towards building wealth and investing.
  4. Being focused, patient and discipline. Have a plan and strategy. Avoid making quick and rash decisions. Have the facts to make an informed decision. If you need to rush to make an investment then you’re probably sticking your leg straight into a bear trap. Stop, calm down and think about it. If it’s really a great opportunity then it will still be here tomorrow.
  5. Understanding your strengths and limitations. There’s a tendency today for people to act like a guru and ‘fake it until they make it’. In some ways, a bit of confidence is a good thing, but don’t fall for your own hype. What makes you so different from the thousands of other investors in the market? What are your weak spots and what have you done to guard against them? Are you playing to your advantages and how do you know they’re better than the competition? Are you in possession of all the relevant and accurate facts and if so, can you make sense of them?
  6. Being realistic. You might read about Warren Buffet and think “I could do that” but the truth is that Warren is the outlier, not the rule. You’re not going to double your money every year and you’re not going to pick winners every week. Accept it and move on. Aim for an annual compounding rate of 10-15% and consider that an almighty challenge at the best of times. If you can compound your money at 10% a year for 20 years, that will build wealth.
  7. Control what you can and don’t worry about the rest. You can’t do anything about what the market thinks or feels about a position hour to hour or day to day. It might feel frustrating to watch your stock sliding backward but if you’ve done your due diligence then have faith that it will be rewarded in time. Focus on your buy price, your position size, portfolio construction and how to bank profits – clear your mind of the noise.
  8. Always seek new knowledge and how to apply them. Never stop learning! There is more knowledge and understanding about the world than anyone before us; make use of it!

Writing about and discussing the psychology of investing are much easier than actually living and following them. Enjoy your life as much as you can – you only have one! If you’re not happy with something in your life, then decide what you truly want, make a plan to achieve it and set a deadline – then make it happen. Life is far, far too short for missing daily joy, peace and abundance!

You must spend some time each day considering investing rules and tactics. Consider how you will overcome the investing challenges and focus on implementing your plan. You will inevitably slip backwards at times, but discipline, patience, persistence and perseverance will help to embed them in your behavior.

References:

  1. https://www.theethicalentrepreneur.com/the-psychology-of-investing/
  2. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/65374007-the-psychology-of-money

“Money’s greatest intrinsic value—and this can’t be overstated—is its ability to give you control over your time.” ~ Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money

“Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.” ~ Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money

20 Investment Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis

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“Attention to risk must be a 24/7/365 obsession, with people – not computers – assessing and reassessing the risk environment in real time.” ~ Seth Klarman

At an early age, Billionaire and Baupost Capital CEO Seth Klarman was fascinated with business and making money.  By the age of ten he was investing in the stock market. 

During Klarman’s time in the investing world, he’s been able to compound capital at a 20% annual return. 

In 1991 Klarman wrote his book, Margin of Safety, and there have only been 5,000 copies printed.  As a result of such a small supply and enormous demand, Klarman’s book is very expensive reselling for $1,500 to $2,500.

James Clear — who writes about habits, decision making, and is the author of the #1 New York Times bestseller, Atomic Habits — summarizes the book, Margin of Safety, as follows:

“Avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor. The way to avoid loss is by investing with a significant margin of safety. A margin of safety is necessary because valuation is an imprecise art, the future is unpredictable, and investors are human and make mistakes.”

2010 Baupost Capital’s annual letter

Here is an excerpt from the 2010 annual letter of Baupost Capital written by Seth Klarman. He was shocked at how quickly investors have returned to the risky investing and financial behaviors that got them in trouble during the 2008 Financial Crisis;

1. Things that have never happened before are bound to occur with some regularity. You must always be prepared for the unexpected (the Black Swan) event, including sudden, sharp downward swings in markets and the economy. Whatever adverse scenario you can contemplate, reality can and will be far worse.

2. When excesses such as lax lending standards become widespread and persist for some time (e.g., ninja (no income, no job and no assets) loans), people are lulled into a false sense of security, creating an even more dangerous situation. In some cases, excesses migrate beyond regional or national borders, raising the ante for investors and governments. These excesses will eventually end, triggering a crisis at least in proportion to the degree of the excesses. Correlations between asset classes may be surprisingly high when leverage rapidly unwinds.

3. Nowhere does it say that investors should strive to make every last dollar of potential profit; consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return. Conservative positioning entering a crisis is crucial: it enables one to maintain long-term oriented, clear thinking, and to focus on new opportunities while others are distracted or even forced to sell. Portfolio hedges must be in place before a crisis hits. One cannot reliably or affordably increase or replace hedges that are rolling off during a financial crisis.

4. Risk is not inherent in an investment; it is always relative to the price paid. Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Indeed, when great uncertainty – such as in the fall of 2008 – drives securities prices to especially low levels, they often become less risky investments.

5. Do not trust financial market risk models. Reality is always too complex to be accurately modeled. Attention to risk must be a 24/7/365 obsession, with people – not computers – assessing and reassessing the risk environment in real time. Despite the predilection of some analysts to model the financial markets using sophisticated mathematics, the markets are governed by behavioral science, not physical science.

6. Do not accept principal risk while investing short-term cash: the greedy effort to earn a few extra basis points of yield inevitably leads to the incurrence of greater risk, which increases the likelihood of losses and severe illiquidity at precisely the moment when cash is needed to cover expenses, to meet commitments, or to make compelling long-term investments.

7. The latest trade of a security creates a dangerous illusion that its market price approximates its true value. This mirage is especially dangerous during periods of market exuberance. The concept of “private market value” as an anchor to the proper valuation of a business can also be greatly skewed during ebullient times and should always be considered with a healthy degree of skepticism.

8. A broad and flexible investment approach is essential during a crisis. Opportunities can be vast, ephemeral, and dispersed through various sectors and markets. Rigid silos can be an enormous disadvantage at such times.

9. You must buy on the way down. There is far more volume on the way down than on the way back up, and far less competition among buyers. It is almost always better to be too early than too late, but you must be prepared for price markdowns on what you buy.

10. Financial innovation can be highly dangerous, (think cryptocurrency) though almost no one will tell you this. New financial products are typically created for sunny days and are almost never stress-tested for stormy weather. Securitization is an area that almost perfectly fits this description; markets for securitized assets such as subprime mortgages completely collapsed in 2008 and have not fully recovered. Ironically, the government is eager to restore the securitization markets back to their pre-collapse stature.

11. Ratings agencies are highly conflicted, unimaginative dupes. They are blissfully unaware of adverse selection and moral hazard. Investors should never trust them.

12. Be sure that you are well compensated for illiquidity – especially illiquidity without control – because it can create particularly high opportunity costs.

13. At equal returns, public investments are generally superior to private investments not only because they are more liquid but also because amidst distress, public markets are more likely than private ones to offer attractive opportunities to average down.

14. Beware leverage in all its forms. Borrowers – individual, corporate, or government – should always match fund their liabilities against the duration of their assets. Borrowers must always remember that capital markets can be extremely fickle, and that it is never safe to assume a maturing loan can be rolled over. Even if you are unleveraged, the leverage employed by others can drive dramatic price and valuation swings; sudden unavailability of leverage in the economy may trigger an economic downturn.

15. Many leveraged buyouts (LBOs) are man-made disasters. When the price paid is excessive, the equity portion of an LBO is really an out-of-the-money call option. Many fiduciaries placed large amounts of the capital under their stewardship into such options in 2006 and 2007.

16. Financial stocks are particularly risky. Banking, in particular, is a highly leveraged, extremely competitive, and challenging business. A major European bank recently announced the goal of achieving a 20% return on equity (ROE) within several years. Unfortunately, ROE is highly dependent on absolute yields, yield spreads, maintaining adequate loan loss reserves, and the amount of leverage used. What is the bank’s management to do if it cannot readily get to 20%? Leverage up? Hold riskier assets? Ignore the risk of loss? In some ways, for a major financial institution even to have a ROE goal is to court disaster.

17. Having clients with a long-term orientation is crucial. Nothing else is as important to the success of an investment firm.

18. When a government official says a problem has been “contained,” pay no attention.

19. The government – the ultimate short-term-oriented player – cannot withstand much pain in the economy or the financial markets. Bailouts and rescues are likely to occur, though not with sufficient predictability for investors to comfortably take advantage. The government will take enormous risks in such interventions, especially if the expenses can be conveniently deferred to the future. Some of the price-tag is in the form of back- stops and guarantees, whose cost is almost impossible to determine.

20. Almost no one will accept responsibility for his or her role in precipitating a crisis: not leveraged speculators, not willfully blind leaders of financial institutions, and certainly not regulators, government officials, ratings agencies or politicians.

References:

  1. https://jamesclear.com/book-summaries/margin-of-safety-risk-averse-value-investing-strategies-for-the-thoughtful-investor
  2. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/seth-klarman-twenty-investment-lessons-should-have-been-learned-2008-crash-2013-04-13
  3. https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/margin-of-safety-summary/

Value Investing

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Value investing involves determining the intrinsic value — the true, inherent worth of an asset — and buying it at a level that represents a substantial discount to that price.

The gap between a stock’s intrinsic value and the price it is currently selling for is known as the margin of safety.

The greater the margin of safety, the more an investor’s projections can be off while still profitably gaining from an investment in the shares of the company being evaluated.

It can be helpful to ensure you understand what value investing is and is not. It is not searching for stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios and blindly buying the stocks that make that first cut. Instead, value investors employ a series of metrics and ratios to help them determine a stock’s intrinsic value and a sufficient margin of safety.

Value investing in stocks often means looking for mispriced shares in out-of-the-way places. This can include looking at companies in out-of-favor sectors, businesses in frowned-upon industries, companies that are going through some type of scandal, or stocks currently enduring a bear market. Unpopular sectors and companies are often treasure troves for the successful value investor, requiring the possession of both a long-term approach and a contrarian mindset. Regardless of where the investments come from, though, value investing is the art and science of identifying stocks priced below their actual worth.

Successful value investing exercise patience and hold during lean times. Taking just one example, in early 2015, American Express shareholders learned that AmEx lost its exclusive credit-card deal with Costco Wholesale locations. In the following months, Amex lost almost 50% of its market-cap value. Yet far from being a moment to panic, savvy investors might have seen an opportunity to buy AmEx for outsized gains. Within three years of its lowest point, American Express had almost doubled and reached new all-time highs.

Selling at lows while negative sentiment is at its highest will guarantee frustration and permanent loss of capital. It can be hard to wait while your thesis plays out, but patience is absolutely necessary for value investors who want to beat the market.

Of course, value investing is more than a waiting game. Investors must remain diligent in staying up to date on a company to ensure their thesis is proceeding as planned. This means paying attention to the company’s business performance — not its stock price.

The Big 5 Numbers 

Phil Town, founder and CEO of Rule #1 Investing, says there are “the big 5 numbers” in value investing.

The Big 5 numbers are:

  1. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
  2. Equity (Book Value) Growth
  3. Earnings per Share (EPS) Growth 
  4. Sales (Revenue) Growth
  5. Cash Growth

All the big 5 numbers will be 10% or greater if the company, and he numbers should be stable or growing over the past 10 years. 

The big takeaway

Value investing is not easy. It requires time, focus, discipline, patience and dedication to the craft. It will often mean looking and feeling foolish while you wait for an investment thesis to play out. If this doesn’t sound like it’s for you, investing in passive index funds is a perfectly suitable alternative.

For investors who enjoy the hunt of looking for undervalued assets — and beating the market at its own game — value investing can be richly rewarding in more ways than one. By following this simple guide, investors can be well on their way to understanding how value investing can beat the market.

References:

  1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/how-to-be-a-successful-value-investor
  2. https://wp.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/value-investing/
  3. https://valueinvestoracademy.com/i-read-rule-1-by-phil-town-heres-what-i-learned/

Value Investing: The 4 Ms of Investing

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“The one and only secret to stockpiling is to make sure the value of the business is substantially greater than the price you are paying for it. If you get this right, you cannot help but get rich.” ~ Phil Town

Value investing is a strategy that focuses on investing in individual assets, but not just any asset, assets in wonderful companies or real estate that are priced well below their value, explains Phil Town, founder and CEO of Rule 1 Investing.

Value investing aims to reduce risk by increasing understanding of what you’re investing in order to make wiser investment decisions, and purchasing it at a price that gives you a margin of safety.

  • Value investing is a focused, disciplined and patient strategy, it’s a buy-and-hold for the long-term strategy. You need to be disciplined, patient and keep your focus on long-term profits.
  • It’s about making investing decisions based on the intrinsic value of a company, or what it’s actually worth, which is not to be confused with its sticker or market price.
  • A key component of value investing is buying stocks at the right time, and the right time will present itself if you remain focused, disciplined and patient.
  • The value investor isn’t swayed by the general public’s reaction or market fear. Fear can make people sell too early or miss an excellent opportunity to buy. But, the value investor decides when to buy or sell based on a wonderful company’s intrinsic value, not based on the prevailing fear or greed in the stock market.

Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

Value investors focuses on finding companies that were both undervalued and are what you might call “wonderful companies” with a high potential for growth. Thus, it wasn’t enough for a company to just be undervalued. Instead, the best companies to invest in were ones that were both undervalued and wonderful companies.

To spot undervalued companies, it’s also important to ensure that the companies you are investing in are high-quality and can retain their value throughout the time that you are holding them. Phil Town likes to evaluate whether or not a business is a quality company with what he calls the 4 Ms of Investing: Meaning, Management, Moat, and Margin of Safety.

If you can check off each of these 4 Ms for a company you are considering investing in, it will be well worth your while.

Meaning

The company should have meaning to you. This is important because if it has meaning to you, you understand what it does and how it works and makes money, and will be more likely to do the research necessary to understand all elements of the business that affect its value.

Management

The company needs to have solid management. Perform a background check on the leaders in charge of guiding the company, paying close attention to the integrity and success of their prior decisions to determine if they are good, solid leaders that will take the company in the right direction.

Moat

The company should have a moat. A moat is something that separates them from the competition and, thus, protects them. If a company has patented technology, control over the market, an impenetrable brand, or a product or service customers would never switch from, it has a moat.

Margin of Safety

In order to guarantee good returns, you must buy a company at a price that gives you a margin of safety. For Rule #1 investors, 50% is the margin of safety to look for, explains Town. This provides a buffer that makes it possible to still experience gains even if problems arise. This is arguably the most important.

These 4Ms draw heavily from the rules of value investing. Both sets of rules dictate that you must buy a company below its actual value in order to make a profit. That’s the bottom line.

Even if a company is in a great position today, it needs to have future potential to triple or 10x your investment. The market cap is a reflection of what you would pay today to own a piece of the company. But the market price is not the true value of the company.

You, as a value investor, should rely on the “intrinsic value” to determine whether a company is a worthy value investment. Then, you can use the market cap to help you determine if the company is on sale and if it has the growth potential.

References:

  1. https://wp.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/value-investing/
  2. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/financial-control/market-capitalization/

Phil Town is an investment advisor, hedge fund manager, and 3x NY Times Best-Selling Author. Phil’s goal is to help you learn how to invest and achieve financial independence.

More Than One in Four Americans Say Their Debt is Unmanageable

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Nearly one in five Americans are feeling bad or very bad about their financial circumstances. ~ OppFi’s 2022 Personal Finance Study

The FinTech company, OppFi, surveyed nearly 1,100 Americans to learn more about Americans’ financial situations,.

Respondents had mixed and uncertain feelings about where they stood financially, with nearly one in five feeling bad or very bad about their circumstances.

Key takeaways

  • Half of respondents to the survey are currently in debt, and 52% of those in debt say their debt is not manageable.
  • Just over 1 in 3 respondents have frequently experienced stress or anxiety about their finances since the COVID-19 pandemic started.
  • 1 in 4 took out a personal loan during the COVID-19 pandemic, most often to cover basic necessities such as food, clothing, and housing and credit card debt.

Americans’ financial health is often measured by benchmarks such as debt, savings, spending habits, and the ability to pay their monthly bills, writes Ashley Altus, CFC, a personal finance writer for OppU. OppFi survey respondents reported having difficulty with many of these things. Half said they’re in debt, and nearly half said they can’t pay their bills on time. Almost 2 in 5 live paycheck to paycheck, and 1 in 5 said they spend more than what they earn.

Budgeting is widely considered an important aspect of personal finance, but 1 in 10 said they didn’t have a budget at all.

Fewer than half (47%) said they have a savings account or emergency fund. Of those who did, nearly 1 in 5 said they could live off it for three weeks at the most.

How COVID-19 impacted Americans’ financial situations

The COVID-19 pandemic threw the American economy into chaos, with numerous businesses closing. In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached a level not seen since the 1930s. Near the end of 2021, 10 million households were behind on rent despite three rounds of stimulus checks.

More than half the people we surveyed said the pandemic worsened their financial situation. The biggest reason? Employment – more than 1 in 5 were working fewer hours and 15% lost their job. Others cited their own illness (17%), and 15% said their credit score decreased.

Financial stressors

One result of financial difficulty may be stress. Just over 1 in 3 respondents said they have frequently experienced stress or anxiety related to their finances since COVID started, with the most common stressor being paying bills other than mortgage or rent (cited by 35%). Debt was identified as a source of stress by 28% and 26% were stressed about not having enough savings.

Other stressors included basics like having enough food, high energy or gasoline prices, and paying mortgage or rent. Financial anxieties also reach as far as retirement, with more than 1 in 10 saying they’re worried they won’t have enough to retire on.

References:

  1. https://www.opploans.com/oppu/articles/personal-finance-study-2022/

6 Common Causes of Recessions

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“A soft landing is impossible. The economy is going to go into a recession fast. You’re going to see the economy just screech to a halt. That’s what the Fed needs to do to get inflation down.” ~ Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

The causes of recessions can vary greatly, according to the FinTech company Sofi. Generally speaking, recessions happen when something causes a loss of confidence among businesses and consumers. The recession that occurred in 2020 could be considered an outlier, as it was mainly sparked by an external global health event rather than internal economic causes.

The mechanics behind a typical recession work like this: consumers lose confidence and stop spending, driving down demand for goods and services. As a result, the economy shifts from growth to contraction. This can, in turn, lead to job losses, a slowdown in borrowing, and a continued decline in consumer spending.

According to SoFi, here are some common causes of recessions:

1. High Interest Rates

High interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, limiting the amount of money available to spend and invest. In the past, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar or prevent the economy from overheating, which has, at times, resulted in a recession.

For example, the 1970s saw a period of stagnant growth and inflation that came to be known as “stagflation.” To fight it, the Fed raised interest rates throughout the decade, which created the recessions between 1980 and 1982.

2. Falling Housing Prices

If housing demand falls, so does the value of people’s homes. Homeowners may no longer be able to tap their house’s equity. As a result, homeowners may have less money in their pockets to spend, reducing consumption in the economy.

3. Stock Market Crash

A stock market crash occurs when a stock market index drops severely. If it falls by at least 20%, it enters what is known as a “bear market.” Stock market crashes can result in a recession since individual investors’ net worth declines, causing them to reduce spending because of a negative wealth effect. It can also cut into confidence among businesses, causing them to spend and hire less.

As stock prices drop, businesses may also face less access to capital and may produce less. They may have to lay off workers, whose ability to spend is curtailed. As this pattern continues, the economy may contract into recession.

4. Reduction in Real Wages

Real wages describe how much income an individual makes when adjusted for inflation. In other words, it represents how far consumer income can go in terms of the goods and services it can purchase.

When real wages shrink, a recession can begin. Consumers can lose confidence when they realize their income isn’t keeping up with inflation, leading to less spending and economic slowdown.

5. Bursting Bubbles

Asset bubbles are to blame for some of the most significant recessions in U.S. history, including the stock market bubble in the 1920s, the tech bubble in the 1990s, and the housing bubble in the 2000s.

An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate, quickly rises without actual value in the asset to justify the rise.

As prices rise, new investors jump in, hoping to take advantage of the rapidly growing market. Yet, when the bubble bursts — for example, if demand runs out — the market can collapse, eventually leading to recession.

6. Deflation

Deflation is a widespread drop in prices, which an oversupply of goods and services can cause. This oversupply can result in consumers and businesses saving money rather than spending it. This is because consumers and businesses would rather wait to purchase goods and services that may be lower in price in the future. As demand falls and people spend less, a recession can follow due to the contraction in consumption and economic activity.

How Do Recessions Affect You?

Businesses may have fewer customers when the economy begins to slow down because consumers have less real income to spend. So they institute layoffs as a cost-cutting measure, which means unemployment rates rise.

As more people lose their jobs, they have less to spend on discretionary items, which means fewer sales and lower revenue for businesses. Individuals who can keep their jobs may choose to save their money rather than spend it, leading to less revenue for businesses.

Investors may see the value of their portfolios shrink if a recession triggers stock market volatility. Homeowners may also see a decline in their home’s equity if home values drop because of a recession.

When consumer spending declines, corporate earnings start to shrink. If a business doesn’t have enough resources to weather the storm, it may have to file for bankruptcy.

Governments and central banks will often do what they can to head off recession through monetary or fiscal stimulus to boost employment and spending. “It’s hard to not underestimate the huge impact that the response to COVID-19 had on all assets. We pumped so much liquidity into the markets it was crazy, we had never seen anything like it. We were throwing trillions of dollars around like matchsticks,” said Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, can provide monetary policy stimulus. The Fed can lower interest rates, which reduces the cost of borrowing. As more people borrow, there’s more money in circulation and more incentive to spend and invest.

Source: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-a-recession/

Dividend Growth Stocks

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Dividend-growth stocks typically exhibit stable earnings, solid fundamentals and strong histories of profit and growth.

Dividend Growth companies are companies that have consistently grown their dividends over the long-term, such as for at least 15 consecutive years. According to ProShares, these companies generally come with attributes of quality that investors have come to expect:

  • Durable competitive advantages, solid fundamentals, and management teams that are committed to returning capital to shareholders.
  • Higher gross and net profit margins than the broader index, with more consistent levels of earnings growth through the market’s ups and downs.
  • Lower levels of debt than companies in the broader market index.

Dividend growers have also demonstrated a history of weathering market turbulence over time. They’ve done so by delivering most of the market’s upside in rising markets with considerably less of the downside in falling ones—a valuable feature in times of uncertainty.

“Dividend growth stocks have outperformed in various market environments,” according to global investment management firm Nuveen. “Dividend growth stocks have provided an attractive combination of earnings and cash flow growth potential, healthy balance sheets and sustainable dividend policies. These stocks have historically offered compelling performance during up markets and provided a buffer during market drawdowns and in volatile environments.”

When the Federal Reserve shifts from an accommodative monetary easing policy to a restrictive monetary policy, there is often an initial period of market volatility and uncertainty.

Dividend growth has been a desirable trait for equities immediately before, during, and after past cycles of less accommodative Fed policy.

Many investing gurus recommend strong dividend payers as the way to weather dual challenges of inflation and recession, noting that the dividend stocks’ income streams are capable of offsetting inflation – even when inflation is running higher than 8%.

“Dividend growth is one of the few things that has kept up with inflation as you go back and look over the decades. So when you go back and you look at the ’70s, ’80s — which is the last time you can actually find any notable inflation — what you see is dividend growth pretty much kept pace with it,” explained Sharon Hill, the co-leader of Vanguard’s Equity Income Fund.

With the three challenges facing investors today—rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and income scarcity–dividend growth stocks could make a better choice for the current economic and market environment.

Source: ProShares, Bloomberg. Data from 12/31/05 to 12/31/21. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index calculations do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot invest in an index.

High-quality companies that have consistently grown their dividends tend to have stable earnings, solid fundamentals and strong histories of profit and growth. As a result, they have been generally better positioned to weather potentially slowing growth.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investing-whiz-sharon-hill-says-155244449.html
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/insights/investing-ideas/10-dividend-growth-stocks
  3. https://www.proshares.com/browse-all-insights/insights/three-reasons-dividend-growth-may-be-the-right-approach
  4. https://www.proshares.com/browse-all-insights/insights/why-dividend-growth-mid-caps-may-belong-in-your-portfolio