The Dow dropped more than 3% on Tuesday and Wednesday on fears of a recession, making it the worst start to a quarter since 2008. A more optimistic view prevailed by the end of the week.
— Read on www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-battles-back-as-recession-fears-recede-51570238255
Tag Archives: Investing
Sequence of Return Risk & Your Nest Egg | Personal Capital
Sequence risk refers to the order or the timing in which your investment returns occur. It specifically relates to the risk of early declines and ongoing withdrawals impacting your spending during a certain period of time, most often in retirement.
— Read on www.personalcapital.com/blog/retirement-planning/sequence-return-risk-your-nest-egg/
The Social Security timing debate | Vanguard Blog
Social Security benefit may be subject to 1 of 3 potential tax treatments depending on your income at the time you collect:
It won’t be subject to federal income tax.
Up to 50% of it will be subject to federal income tax.
Up to 85% of it will be subject to federal income tax.
Let’s say you retire at age 62 and cover your living expenses by taking withdrawals from a tax-deferred retirement account—a traditional IRA. The amount you withdraw from your traditional IRA will lower your account balance. This may reduce your future required minimum distributions (RMDs), which are calculated by dividing your retirement account balance (as of December 31 of the previous year) by the IRS’s life expectancy factor.
Since your RMD is considered ordinary income, smaller distributions can help you control your income when you begin collecting Social Security at age 70.
if you defer your benefit until you’re age 70 and live until age 90, you’ll collect $652,560 in Social Security over the course of your lifetime. If you don’t defer your benefit and begin collecting at your full retirement age (66), you’ll collect almost $80,000 less over the course of your lifetime.
Lifetime benefit based on age you collect

Note: Example excludes inflation.
The choice is yours
A timeless debate perseveres because it’s a fair fight—both sides of the argument hold water. Folding your pizza makes it easier to eat; not folding it makes it last longer. Cats are independent; dogs are loyal. No matter what you call it, a sandwich is delicious—so just enjoy it. Taking Social Security at full retirement age means you may be able to preserve other financial resources; deferring until age 70 means you’ll get more money when you do collect.
Several personal factors will likely influence when you decide to collect Social Security. At the risk of sounding morbid, you won’t know whether you’ve truly made the “right” decision until it’s too late. So the best advice I have to offer is to choose your Social Security start date based on the facts you know right now. If you get a good night’s sleep after you’ve made your decision, you’re on the right track.
*Source: longevityillustrator.org, supported by the Society of Actuaries.
— Read on vanguardblog.com/2018/05/30/the-social-security-timing-debate/
Americans’ Confidence in Their Finances Keeps Growing
Americans’ optimism about their personal finances has climbed to levels not seen in more than 16 years, with 69% now saying they expect to be financially better off “at this time next year.”
The 69% saying they expect to be better off is only two percentage points below the all-time high of 71%, recorded in March 1998 at a time when the nation’s economic boom was producing strong economic growth combined with the lowest inflation and unemployment rates in decades.
— Read on news.gallup.com/poll/246602/americans-confidence-finances-keeps-growing.aspx
Sustaining retirement income in a lower-return world | Vanguard Blog
Retirement spending: 3 strategies
This challenging topic regarding spending rules to help retirees who want to generate a paycheck from their portfolios. Two of the most popular are the “dollar plus inflation” and the “percentage of portfolio” rules. One alternate solution: is the “dynamic spending” strategy.
The dollar plus inflation strategy is just what it sounds like. Upon retirement, you select the initial dollar amount you’d like to spend each year and increase that amount annually by inflation. The well-known “4% rule” follows this approach (Bengen 1994[1]). While this strategy allows for rather stable real spending from year to year, it also requires a trade-off: a higher risk of premature portfolio depletion. The chink in the armor for this strategy is that it’s indifferent to the returns of the portfolio, which can be problematic in both bear and bull markets. The result is you could potentially run out of money (or at least have to substantially reduce your spending since you’re not likely to continue spending down to your last $1) in the event portfolio returns are negative, or you could potentially live well below your means and not enjoy retirement to its fullest if portfolio returns are much better than expected.
The percentage of portfolio strategy, on the other hand, may be too sensitive to returns, creating significant income volatility based on market movements. With this strategy, the annual spending amount is a consistent percentage of the portfolio’s value. This approach ensures that the portfolio won’t be depleted, but as the portfolio’s value rises and falls, the income amount will rise and fall as well—sometimes dramatically. Yes, it’s this last part—income falling in response to negative returns—that people often struggle with.
The dynamic spending strategy is a more flexible approach that moderates the other two strategies’ weaknesses, as summarized in Figure 1.

With dynamic spending, you would calculate each year’s spending in three steps:
Use the percentage of portfolio approach (e.g., 5%) to calculate a spending level based on the portfolio’s value at the prior year-end.
Determine a range of acceptable spending levels based on the prior year’s actual portfolio value. To find the range, increase the prior year’s spending by 5% (the ceiling) and reduce it by –2.5% (the floor).[1]
Finally, compare the results. If this year’s spending amount based on the percentage of portfolio:
Exceeds the ceiling amount, spend the ceiling.
Is less than the floor amount, spend the floor.
As you can see, the dynamic spending strategy is a bit more involved and may require a little more discipline and oversight to follow compared with the other two strategies. Given that, this is certainly one area where working with a financial advisor can make a lot of sense and may even pay for itself.
— Read on vanguardblog.com/2019/08/08/sustaining-retirement-income-in-a-lower-return-world/
Why It’s a Good Time to Consider Dividend-Paying Stocks – TheStreet
Mark Hulbert notes dividend-stock strategies may be out of favor, but these days, they can provide not only a higher yield but also growth potential….MO
— Read on www.thestreet.com/opinion/why-its-a-good-time-to-consider-dividend-paying-stocks-15092345
Peter Lynch: Secrets to Success | Investing Lessons | Fidelity
For the 13 years, Peter Lynch ran Fidelity’s Magellan® Fund (1977–1990). During that period, he earned a reputation as a top performer, increasing assets under management from $18 million to $14 billion (as of 1990). Since then, Lynch has mentored virtually every equity analyst at Fidelity. He also authored several top-selling books on investing, including One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street, and has been a generous contributor to the Boston community, the Catholic Schools Foundation and the Inner City Scholarship Fund.
Whether you enjoy picking individual stocks, aspire to it, or prefer to rely on professional management in the form of mutual funds, ETFs, or managed accounts, his plain-spoken wisdom can help you become a better investor.
“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.” — Peter Lynch
“More people have lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in actual corrections.” — Peter Lynch
“Stocks aren’t lottery tickets. Behind every stock is a company. If the company does well, over time the stocks do well.” — Peter Lynch
Read on www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/peter-lynch-investment-strategy
Source: FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 09/18/2019
Plan for Retirement by Focusing on Your Life Goals – Barron’s
Scott Hanson, co-founder and senior partner at $4.5 billion Allworth Financial, sounds more like a life coach. After 27 years in the business, he understands that a big problem many folks have in retirement isn’t that they haven’t saved enough or invested wisely—it’s that they haven’t laid out their life’s goals and are left feeling deflated and unhappy.
— Read on www.barrons.com/articles/plan-for-retirement-by-focusing-on-your-life-goals-51568421815
- Life is about relationships and meaning. When you leave the workplace, people risk losing relationships and their sense of purpose.
- Money is just a tool and can help accomplish what’s important to people. Sometimes, people are still trying to get clarity on what’s important. A financial advisor’s goal should be to help people live rich and meaningful lives.
- The danger of predicting where markets are going to go is that, if things go wrong, there could be dire consequences for life.
- Taxes can take such a big chunk out of wealth. Paying attention to taxes—whether while selling an investment or taking a withdrawal from an IRA or considering a Roth IRA conversion—can mean the difference between paying 15% [on profits] versus 35%.
Grow Your Retirement Savings to Keep Up With Inflation- Ticker Tape
Source: TD Ameritrade’s The Ticker Tape
— Read on tickertape.tdameritrade.com/retirement/your-retirement-savings-plan-inflation-15452
Key Takeaways
- Understand if your assets are keeping pace with inflation and cost of living increases
- Consider how even an “average” rate of inflation can cut into your retirement savings
- Take a look at some saving and investing suggestions that might help you combat inflation
- Most of us probably strived for better-than-average grades at school and better-than-average salaries at work. That being the case, it’s kind of surprising that so many investors seem to be comfortable having “average” retirement savings for their age.

Unfortunately, if your savings are just “average,” they probably aren’t going to account for inflation and cost of living increases both before and during retirement. The hard truth is that even after you retire, your assets will need to grow quicker just to keep up with higher prices.
How to make your retirement savings last forever — Market News
New research, which began circulating in academic circles earlier this month, was conducted by Javier Estrada, a professor of finance at IESE Business School in Barcelona. His new study is entitled: “Managing to Target (II): Dynamic Adjustments for Retirement Strategies.”
In it, Estrada measured the success rates of various strategies that adjusted withdrawal rates depending on whether your portfolio in any given year is ahead or behind of what your retirement financial plan had assumed it should be. It will be ahead, needless to say, if your investments perform better than had been assumed by your financial plan–and behind if your investments have performed more poorly.
Estrada refers to strategies that adjusted withdrawal rates as “dynamic,” in contrast to the “static” strategy implicitly assumed by many financial planners.
To illustrate: Let’s say you retire with a $1 million portfolio, want to fund a 30-year retirement, and your investments grow at an annualized rate of 5% above inflation. Assuming you do not intend to leave a bequest, and assuming your portfolio’s investment return is 5% in each year along the way, you can withdraw the equivalent of $61,954 in today’s dollars in each and every one of those 30 years.
In fact, of course, that italicized assumption is unrealistic. Given the inevitable variability of yearly returns along the way–some good and some bad, it’s not unlikely that, at some point along the way, your portfolio’s performance would be insufficient to support that rate of steady withdrawals. You’d run out of money, in other words.
— Source and Read on research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/markets/news/story.asp