Category Archives: Economy

Invest for the Long Term

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When the market is uncertain, following your long-term financial plan will be the best approach for growing your money and long-term investing success.

Like a roller coaster ride, keeping up with the constant change in the stock market can be an intense experience. And, although those periods of market uncertainty can be unsettling, the good news is that investors who stay the course and continue investing tend to do better over time. It can be tempting to sell at a loss when markets are low, and some wait too long on the sidelines and miss a window of opportunity. If you’re concerned about investing at the right time, you could dollar cost average your investments, which is investing smaller amounts at regular intervals, as opposed to investing a single lump sum at one time. By spreading out your payments, you can take advantage of market corrections and discounted pricing without having to try to figure out the optimal time.  The key is to stay calm and stick to your long-term plans.

Consider the Big Picture

Sometimes, we forget that what’s happening in the market today is really just a snapshot in time. History has shown that even after a slump, the market recovers. Even better, given the lower stock prices, a down market could be a good time to add to your portfolio. You’ll likely be in a good position to take advantage of future gains, especially if you don’t plan to cash out your investments for years.

Turn Off the Noise

Resist the urge to make investment decisions fueled by emotion or the day’s headlines. Stay focused on your goals and how long you have to achieve them. Here are some ideas to help you follow or tweak your plan calmly:

Assess your goals.

Consider how long you have to achieve your goals. What do you hope to accomplish in 5, 10, 20 years? How long do you have until retirement? If your goals need to be tweaked or you need to cash out some investments sooner than planned, be sure to talk to a financial advisor.

Review asset allocation.

Review how much you have in stocks, bonds, ETFs and cash. Is your portfolio still a good fit based on your age, goals and risk tolerance? If not, rebalance it to stay on target.

Start or continue to invest.

Investing your money is the most reliable way to create wealth over time.

If you’re new to the investing world, it’s time to get started and make your money work for you.  Your goal is to grow your money, and investing will yield higher returns than traditional savings options.

Continue contributing to your future.

Keep making regular contributions to your retirement plan. Prioritize these contributions as part of your monthly budget, so you’ll continue growing account balances without even thinking about it. And, keep in mind—participating in an employer-sponsored retirement plan or contributing to an IRA provides you certain tax and other advantages.

Investing may appearing daunting, especially if you’ve never invested in stocks, mutual funds or bonds before. However, if you figure out how you want to invest, why you want to invest, how much money you should invest, and your risk tolerance, you’ll be well positioned to make smart decisions with your money that will serve you well for decades to come.

Whether you prefer a do-it-yourself investor or prefer to seek assistance from an advisor, it’s important for you to develop good financial habits and for you to make sound choices.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/
  2. https://www.navyfederal.org/resources/articles/life/investments.php?cmpid=em%7Cnl%7Cresources%7Carticles%7Carticles%7Clife%7Cinvestments%7C11/20/2020%7C31689%7CA%7Ccb4.4

The stock market is not the economy

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The stock market is not the economy, rather it is one variable that indicates how the economy is doing and may perform down the road.

“The stock market is a market where stocks, a type of investment that represents ownership in a company are traded,” said Jessica Schieder, a federal tax policy fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. The stock market is where investors attempt to predict what’s going to happen in the economy or with a company’s stock price.

In contrast, the economy is a sum of goods and services, all of the things produced measured by gross domestic product (GDP).

“The stock market can be moody,” explains Laura Gonzalez, associate professor of finance at California State University, Long Beach. “Sometimes the stock market is positive about the future and sometimes it’s negative about the future.”

So remember, the stock market is not the economy. And the economy is not the stock market. But they are related.

References:

  1. https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/

Shopify and Operation HOPE to Create One Million Black-Owned Businesses by 2030

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Operation HOPE and Shopify Join Forces to Help Create One Million Black-Owned Businesses by 2030

See the source image Operation HOPE and Shopify Join Forces to Help Create One Million Black-Owned Businesses by 2030

Operation HOPE in partnership with Shopify today announced a new initiative called ‘HOPE One Million New Black Business & New Black Entrepreneurship Initiative (1MBB)’.  The initiative’s goal is to help create one million new Black-owned businesses in the U.S. by 2030. To realize this mission, Operation HOPE is working with Shopify, a leading global commerce company.  Shopify intends to provide up to approximately $130 million of resources through 1MBB over the course of this initiative.

Shopify advances mission with up to ~$130 million of resources

Shopify’s mission is “Making commerce better for everyone”  The ‘all-in-one’ e-commerce company helps “people achieve independence by making it easier to start, run, and grow a business.” They “believe the future of commerce has more voices, not fewer, so…[they’re] reducing the barriers to business ownership to make commerce better for everyone.”

“We [Shopify] work to break down the barriers to entrepreneurship every day,” said Harley Finkelstein, Shopify President. “By collaborating with Operation HOPE and working together on our shared passion for helping underserved communities succeed, we believe we can help unlock even more economic opportunities for Black business owners across the country, leading to greater choices for shoppers everywhere.”

Historically, the Black community has faced systemic barriers to entry that have prevented their full participation in the entrepreneurial journey. Together with Shopify, Operation HOPE aims to reduce these obstacles, encouraging more aspiring Black entrepreneurs to start and scale businesses, and provide them with the tools, resources, and education they may need to succeed.

Operation HOPE research has shown that 58% of Black businesses were deemed at risk or distressed and suffering from low profits, low credit scores, or income shocks in the months immediately following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020). Over the course of the pandemic, the number of Black workers and business owners fell sharply, over 40%, a more severe economic impact compared to other racial groups. The pandemic’s disproportionate effects on Black businesses result in both acute and long-term impacts on Black families and future generations. At present, four in 10 Black adults belong to families in which someone lost a job, was furloughed, or had hours cut, or lost work-related income because of the COVID-19.

To level the playing field, 1MBB intends to focus on critical tools for business success such as technology and resources, educational programs, and the opportunity to access capital. Through this program, Black business owners have the opportunity to sign up for Operation HOPE’s programs of community uplift, financial literacy and education, and upon graduation, Shopify plans to provide aspiring Black entrepreneurs a tailored education with tools and resources to launch or expand their businesses.

“Creating generational wealth through the creation of new Black businesses and Black entrepreneurs is a direct gateway to social justice. The creation of ownership, jobs and opportunity in a generation helps to strengthen democracy and ensure freedom through self-determination. This is empowerment at scale,” said John Hope Bryant, CEO and Founder of Operation HOPE. “To have Shopify actively supporting the 1MBB Initiative is a true game changer. Working together, we can scale our business creation platform to help underserved communities and enhance economic prosperity across America.”

To learn more about this initiative, visit www.HOPE1MBB.org.

References:

  1. https://news.yahoo.com/operation-hope-shopify-join-forces-122900144.html
  2. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201020005715/en

Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousand | Bloomberg

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“Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousands — And No One Is Tracking the Carnage”

By Madeleine Ngo, August 11, 2020, 9:08 AM EDT

  • They simply close down and never show up in bankruptcy tallies
  • More than half of owners are worried their firm won’t survive

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted virtually all businesses in one way or another. But the divide between small businesses and large organizations has never been clearer. “Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage.  By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge.”

Massive corporations have the cash and/or borrowing power to stay afloat for many months, the majority of small businesses do not. And we’re beginning to feel the effects.  Economists project that more than 100,000 American small businesses have already shut down permanently since March. This suggests that at least 2 percent of all small businesses are now gone (never to return). And this is just the very tip of the iceberg.

According to a separate study that was conducted in April, as many as 7.5 million small businesses will be permanently shut down if business disruptions continue unabated. More than 90 percent of them will be companies with fewer than 20 employees.

“This wave of silent failures goes uncounted in part because real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce, and because owners of small firms often have no debt, and thus no need for bankruptcy court.”

“Yelp Inc., the online reviewer, has data showing more than 80,000 small businesses permanently shuttered from March 1 to July 25. About 60,000 were local businesses, or firms with fewer than five locations.”

Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy.

“While the businesses are small individually, the collective impact of their failures could be substantial. Firms with fewer than 500 employees account for about 44% of U.S. economic activity, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration report, and they employ almost half of all American workers.”

“Small business attrition is high even in normal times. Only about half of all establishments survive for at least five years, according to the SBA. But the swiftness of the pandemic and the huge drop in economic activity is hitting hard among typically upbeat entrepreneurs. About 58% of small business owners say they’re worried about permanently closing, according to a July U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

References:

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews
  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/12/small-business-used-define-americas-economy-pandemic-could-end-that-forever/
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/7point5-million-small-businesses-are-at-risk-of-closing-report-finds.html

Federal Debt has Surpassed the Size of the U.S. Economy | New York Times

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By Matt Phillips. Aug. 21, 2020 Updated 7:48 a.m. ET

The national debt of the United States now exceeds the size of the nation’s gross domestic product. That was once considered by economists a doomsday scenario that would wreck the U.S. economy. So far, that hasn’t happened.

“Economists and deficit hawks have warned for decades that the United States was borrowing too much money. The federal debt was ballooning so fast, they said, that economic ruin was inevitable: Interest rates would skyrocket, taxes would rise and inflation would probably run wild.”

“The death spiral could be triggered once the debt surpassed the size of the U.S. economy — a turning point that was probably still years in the future.”

“It actually happened much sooner: sometime before the end of June 2020.”

“”This is a 40-year pattern,” said Stephanie Kelton, a professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University and a proponent of what’s often called Modern Monetary Theory. That view holds that countries that control their own currencies have far more leeway to run large deficits than traditionally thought. “The whole premise that deficits drive up interest rates, it’s just wrong,” she said.”

“At the end of last year, the United States was about $17 trillion in debt — roughly 80 percent of the gross domestic product. In January, government analysts predicted that debt would approach 100 percent of the G.D.P. around 2030. But by the end of June, the debt stood at $20.63 trillion, or roughly 106 percent of G.D.P., which shrank amid widespread stay-at-home orders. (These numbers don’t count trillions more the government owes itself in bonds held by the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.)”

“Economists have long told a story in which debt levels this large inevitably ignited an economic doom loop. Towering levels of debt would freak out Treasury bond investors, who would demand higher interest rates to hand their cash to such a heavily indebted borrower. With its debt payments more expensive, the government would have to borrow even more to stay current on its obligations.”

“Neither tax increases nor spending cuts would be attractive, because both could slow the economy — and any slowdown would hurt tax revenues, meaning the government would have to keep borrowing more. These scenarios frequently included dire predictions of soaring interest rates for business and consumer borrowing and crushing inflation as the government printed more and more money to pay what it owed.”

“But instead of panicking, the financial markets are viewing this seemingly bottomless need for borrowing benignly. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury note — also known as its yield — is roughly 0.7 percent, far below where it was a little over a year ago, when it was about 2 percent.”

“There’s a debate about whether a large amount of government debt hamstrings economic growth over the long term. Some influential studies have shown that high levels of debt — in particular debt-to-G.D.P. ratios approaching 100 percent — are associated with lower levels of economic growth. But other researchers have found that the relationship isn’t causal: Slowing economic growth might lead to higher levels of debt, rather than vice versa.”

“Others have found that they don’t see much of a relationship between high levels of debt and slow economic growth for rich developed countries.”

“The experience over the last decade has drastically shifted the way economists and investors think about how the United States funds itself.”

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/business/economy/national-debt-coronavirus-stimulus.html?referringSource=articleShare

Coronavirus High Frequency Economic Data 8/18/20 || First Trust

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Economic Data consolidated by First Trust

Excerpts from recent Federal Reserve statement:  “The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.”

“Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.  Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.”

“Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.”

“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”

Sources: First Trust Advisors, Department of Labor, Redbook Research, Box Office Mojo,  Association of American Railroads, American Iron and Steel Institute,  Hotel News Now, Opentable, Transportation Security Administration, Energy Information Administration

  1. Data for level and year ago level are YOY % changes.
  2. Data is provided daily instead of weekly.
  3. Data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. % change month over month is the current reading minus the month ago reading.

Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousand | Bloomberg

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“Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousands — And No One Is Tracking the Carnage”

By Madeleine Ngo, August 11, 2020, 9:08 AM EDT

  • They simply close down and never show up in bankruptcy tallies
  • More than half of owners are worried their firm won’t survive

“Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage. ”

“By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge.”

“This wave of silent failures goes uncounted in part because real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce, and because owners of small firms often have no debt, and thus no need for bankruptcy court.”

“Yelp Inc., the online reviewer, has data showing more than 80,000 small businesses permanently shuttered from March 1 to July 25. About 60,000 were local businesses, or firms with fewer than five locations.”

“While the businesses are small individually, the collective impact of their failures could be substantial. Firms with fewer than 500 employees account for about 44% of U.S. economic activity, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration report, and they employ almost half of all American workers.”

“Small business attrition is high even in normal times. Only about half of all establishments survive for at least five years, according to the SBA. But the swiftness of the pandemic and the huge drop in economic activity is hitting hard among typically upbeat entrepreneurs. About 58% of small business owners say they’re worried about permanently closing, according to a July U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

References:

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

Companies Start to Think Remote Work Isn’t So Great After All | The Wall Street Journal

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Projects take longer. Collaboration is harder. And training new workers is a struggle. ‘This is not going to be sustainable.’

“Four months ago, employees at many U.S. companies went home and did something incredible: They got their work done, seemingly without missing a beat. Executives were amazed at how well their workers performed remotely, even while juggling child care and the distractions of home.”

“Now, as the work-from-home experiment stretches on, some cracks are starting to emerge.

  • Projects take longer.
  • Training is tougher.
  • Hiring and integrating new employees, more complicated.
  • Workers appear less connected and
  • Younger professionals aren’t developing at the same rate as they would in offices, sitting next to colleagues and absorbing how they do their jobs.”

“Months into a pandemic that rapidly reshaped how companies operate, an increasing number of executives now say that remote work, while necessary for safety much of this year, is not their preferred long-term solution once the coronavirus crisis passes.”

“No CEO should be surprised that the early productivity gains companies witnessed as remote work took hold have peaked and leveled off, he adds, because workers left offices in March armed with laptops and a sense of doom.”

“Few companies expect remote work to go away in the near term, though the evolving thinking among many CEOs reflects a significant shift from the early days of the pandemic.”

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-start-to-think-remote-work-isnt-so-great-after-all-11595603397

Reference:

Cutter, Chip, Companies Start to Think Remote Work Isn’t So Great After All, The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2020 11:10 am ET

Stock Market Reaction to Expiring COVID-19 Programs | Charles Schwab

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Key Points

  • Stock markets around the world welcomed the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus programs; but now those programs are starting to expire.
  • If not extended or replaced, the fading support for the unemployed raises the risk of weakening economic momentum, turning the V-shaped recovery into a W. 
  • As investors seem to be discovering with international stocks outperforming in recent weeks, there are very different implications for U.S. and European workers.

Stock markets around the world welcomed the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus programs; the passage of the CARES Act in the U.S. in late March coincided with the start of the market rebound.

But now these programs are starting to expire. Key support for the unemployed in the U.S. and Europe is set to fade, raising the risk of weakening economic momentum and turning the V-shaped recovery into a W.

In the United States, an additional $600 per week for the unemployed expires July 31. The average unemployment payout without the CARES Act benefit is only $333 per week. Losing the extra $600 a week is like a two-thirds cut to income for 17 million Americans receiving state unemployment benefits. 

Investing implications

International stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks during six of the past eight weeks, including last week. One of the reasons may be the looming expiration of labor support programs and the different impact this could have on the unemployed in the U.S. compared with Europe.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/stock-market-reaction-to-expiring-covid-19-programs

A Moral and Economic Imperative to End Racism

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The U.S. “has both a moral and economic imperative to end these unjust and destructive practices” of institutionalized racism. Raphael Bostic, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

“Over the course of American history, the examples of such institutionalized racism are many, and include slavery, federal law (consider the Three-Fifths Compromise our founding fathers established to determine federal representation), sanctioned intimidation during Reconstruction, Jim Crow laws in southern states, redlining by bankers and brokers, segregation, voter suppression, and racial profiling in policing.”

Dr. Raphael W. Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

“These institutions hurt not only the African Americans they’ve targeted, but the systemic racism they’ve codified also hurt, and continues to hurt, America and its economy. By limiting economic and educational opportunities for a large number of Americans, institutionalized racism constrains this country’s economic potential. The economic contributions of these Americans, in the form of work product and innovation, will be less than they otherwise could have been. Systemic racism is a yoke that drags on the American economy.”

“To be fair, we have made some progress. Legal reforms have erased many of those historical institutions that caused so much pain and violence, and further reform essential for helping end harmful practices is under way in many places. But the legacies of these institutions remain, and we continue to experience misguided bias and prejudices that stem from these stains on our history. These have manifested in the worst way possible—in the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, Dana Martin, and, sadly, so many others.”

“It is time for this cycle to stop. It is time for us to collectively embrace the promise of an inclusive America, one where everyone can participate fully. We are each being challenged to rise to this occasion through education and action. All of us, especially our white allies, must learn the history of systemic racism and the ways it continues to manifest in our lives today. Furthermore, we all must reflect on what we can do to effect change at every turn.”

“A commitment to an inclusive society also means a commitment to an inclusive economy.”

To read the entire text: https://www.frbatlanta.org/about/feature/2020/06/12/bostic-a-moral-and-economic-imperative-to-end-racism

Dr. Raphael W. Bostic is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He is a participant on the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System.