Small company, higher quality “value” stocks

Small company, higher quality “value” stocks are better long-term investments than large company growth stocks.

Small cap value stocks are assets that may be temporarily undervalued by investors. These companies typically grow at a slower pace than the typical company.

Over the past decade, growth stocks have largely outperformed small cap value stocks.

Small cap value stocks are currently undervalued by the market. If investor sentiment is correct and other investors ultimately recognize the value of the company, the price of these stocks may rise over the long term.

Historically, the stocks of smaller companies have outperformed those of larger companies. And relatively inexpensive stocks have outperformed more expensive stocks.

Over a long term, small cap stocks deliver superb investment returns, better than any other asset class and many percentage points better than the equity market as a whole. And, there exist a body of research that shows that over a long investment horizon, small cap stocks have outperformed their large cap brethren. From 1928 through 2014, U.S. small-cap value stocks turned in a compound annual return of 13.6% compared with 9.8% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Finance professor Kenneth French and Nobel laureate Eugene Fama, say that “…small company value stocks are better long-term investments than large company growth stocks, though they add (naturally) that they are also riskier.”

Currently, small company, higher quality “value” stocks are trading at their biggest discount since the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000.  But it is important for investors to invest in small cap stocks that have the “quality” factor and their corresponding discount are the reason that quality has become the significant factor in explaining the sectors out-performance. 

For quality, it is important to look for companies with above-average sustainable growth and profitability—and strong free-cash flow generation.  It is also important to focus on return on assets, rather than return on equity, since the latter can be boosted by debt. Additionally, it is important to prefer companies with conservative balance sheets.

The simplest solution for investors wanting to embrace higher quality, smaller cap value stocks, is to buy a low-cost exchange-traded fund which invest small company, higher quality “value” stocks.  BlackRock offers the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR), with a low expense ratio of 0.07% and Vanguard offers Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), with a low expense ratio of 0.07%.

One of Wall Street secret: Investors can make good money with the stocks of smaller companies whose names aren’t necessarily household words.

In the long run, small-cap value is the undisputed champion of the major asset classes such as large cap growth. But the operative phrase there is “in the long run.” Over shorter time periods, small-cap value stocks can be disappointing and significantly trail asset classes such as large cap growth.


References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-strategy-to-outsmart-the-sp-500-bubble-2020-08-20?mod=mw_quote_news
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/a-tale-of-two-indexes-1516896321
  3. Fama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R., A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model (September 2014). Fama-Miller Working Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2287202 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2287202
  4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-best-performing-stock-sector-for-87-years-2015-03-11
  5. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/youre-loving-high-flying-growth-stocks-now-but-your-money-should-be-in-these-companies-this-market-pro-says-2020-08-20

Coronavirus High Frequency Economic Data 8/18/20 || First Trust

Economic Data consolidated by First Trust

Excerpts from recent Federal Reserve statement:  “The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.”

“Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.  Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.”

“Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.”

“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”


Sources: First Trust Advisors, Department of Labor, Redbook Research, Box Office Mojo,  Association of American Railroads, American Iron and Steel Institute,  Hotel News Now, Opentable, Transportation Security Administration, Energy Information Administration

  1. Data for level and year ago level are YOY % changes.
  2. Data is provided daily instead of weekly.
  3. Data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. % change month over month is the current reading minus the month ago reading.

SalivaDirect – FDA authorizes new saliva based COVID-19 test

Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Stephen Hahn called the development of a new and inexpensive saliva test for COVID-19 ”ground-breaking.” The new COVID test, which uses saliva instead of nasal swabs, is also a much less intrusive test than the nasal test.

The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday authorized emergency use of a new and inexpensive saliva test for Covid-19 that could greatly expand testing capacity. The new test is called SalivaDirect and was developed by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health.

The test method allows saliva samples to be collected in any sterile container. And, it is a much less invasive process than the nasal swabs currently used to test for the virus that causes Covid-19, but one that has so far yielded highly sensitive and similar results. This test is being further validated as a test for asymptomatic individuals through a program that tests players and staff from the National Basketball Association (NBA).

SalivaDirect is simpler, less expensive, and less invasive than the traditional method for nasal swab testing. Results so far have found that SalivaDirect is highly sensitive and yields similar outcomes as nasal swabbing.

“We simplified the test so that it only costs a couple of dollars for reagents, and we expect that labs will only charge about $10 per sample,” said Nathan Grubaugh, a Yale assistant professor of epidemiology. “If cheap alternatives like SalivaDirect can be implemented across the country, we may finally get a handle on this pandemic, even before a vaccine.”

With the FDA’s emergency use authorization, the testing method is immediately available to other diagnostic laboratories that want to start using the new test, which can be scaled up quickly for use across the nation. A key component of SalivaDirect is that the method has been validated with reagents and instruments from multiple vendors.


References:

  1. https://khn.org/morning-breakout/fda-signs-off-on-fast-inexpensive-saliva-test/
  2. https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

Well-Being and Positive Thinking

“Good thoughts and actions can never produce bad results; bad thoughts and actions can never produce good results…We understand this law in the natural world, and work with it; but few understand it in the mental and moral world – although its operation there is just as simple and undeviating – and they, therefore, do not cooperation with it.” – James Allen

Gallup’s research into wellbeing found that “a life well-lived” requires the fulfillment of several elements: Career, Emotional, Physical, Community and Financial wellbeing.

In this article, we will highlight the impact that positive thinking impact on overall well-being. Essentially, a person’s wellbeing — whether thriving, struggling or suffering — can be affected by one’s thinking.

Positive thinking: Stop negative self-talk to reduce stress

“Positive thinking is more than just a tagline. It changes the way we behave. And I firmly believe that when I am positive, it not only makes me better, but it also makes those around me better.” – Harvey Mackay

Positive thinking helps with stress management and can even improve your health, according to the Mayo Clinic. Positive thinking may reflect your outlook on life, your attitude toward yourself, and whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic — and it may even affect your health.

Studies have shown that optimism can affect your health and well-being. The positive thinking that comes with optimism is a key part of effective stress management. And effective stress management is associated with many health benefits.

Understanding positive thinking and self-talk

“The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude.” – Oprah Winfrey

Positive thinking doesn’t mean that you’re a Pollyanna and ignore life’s less pleasant situations. Positive thinking just means that you approach unpleasantness in a more positive, courageous and productive way. Instead of giving into fear (False Expectations Appearing Real) and worry, you think the best is going to happen, not the worst.

Positive thinking often starts with self-talk. Self-talk is the endless stream of unspoken thoughts that run through your head. These automatic thoughts can be positive or negative. Some of your self-talk comes from logic and reason. Other self-talk may arise from misconceptions that you create because of lack of information, according to the Mayo Clinic.

If the thoughts that run through your head are mostly negative, your outlook on life is more likely pessimistic. If your thoughts are mostly positive, you’re likely an optimist — someone who practices positive thinking.

The health benefits of positive thinking

Researchers continue to explore the effects of positive thinking and optimism on health. Health benefits that positive thinking may provide include:

  • Increased life span
  • Lower rates of depression
  • Lower levels of distress
  • Greater resistance to the common cold
  • Better psychological and physical well-being
  • Better cardiovascular health and reduced risk of death from cardiovascular disease
  • Better coping skills during hardships and times of stress

It’s unclear why people who engage in positive thinking experience these health benefits. One theory is that having a positive outlook enables you to cope better with stressful situations, which reduces the harmful health effects of stress on your body and mental well-being.

It’s also thought that positive and optimistic people tend to live healthier lifestyles — they get more physical activity, have stronger relationships, follow a healthier diet, and don’t smoke or drink alcohol in excess.


  1. https://www.gallup.com/workplace/267152/financial-wellbeing-pays-off.aspx
  2. https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/stress-management/in-depth/positive-thinking/art-20043950
  3. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/positive-thinking_b_3512202

FedEx’s Fred Smith Quotes on Leadership

  • What follows are Fred Smith, Founder, Chairman of the Board and CEO of FedEx, quotes on leadership.
    1. “Leadership is simply the ability of an individual to coalesce the efforts of other individuals toward achieving common goals. It boils down to looking after your people and ensuring that, from top to bottom, everyone feels part of the team.”
    2. “Leaders get out in front and stay there by raising the standards by which they judge themselves—and by which they are willing to be judged.”
    3. “The greatest leadership principle I learned in the Marine Corps was the necessity to take care of the troops in a high performance based organization.
      The Marine Corps’ strong emphasis on this overriding leadership requirement has been of inestimable importance to me in developing FedEx over the years.  In the main, people want to be commited to an organization and to do a good job.  The principles of leadership taught by the USMC, and based on two centuries of experience, will produce outstanding organizational results in any setting, if those principles are studiously followed. In short, FedEx owes its success to this simple truth.”
    4. “I’m not afraid to take a swing and miss.”
    5. “The riskiest strategy is to try to avoid risk altogether.”
    6. “Fear of failure must never be a reason not to try something.”
    7. “A manager is not a person who can do the work better than his men; he is a person who can get his men to do the work better than he can.”
    8. “My innovation involved taking an idea from the telecommunications and banking industries, and applying that idea to transportation business.”
    9. “You can’t make people do what’s right. You can lead them, and you can empower them to make the right decision, but if you don’t produce a culture that allows them to do that, then all the rest is just bumping your gums as one of my old business partners used to say.”
    10. “If you’re going to run a high service organization, you have to get the commitment of the people working for that organization right at the start. If you don’t, you’ll never be able to deliver at the levels of expectations of the customer.”

    —Fred W. Smith, Chairman, CEO, Entrepreneur and Founder of FedEx


    All About Fats | VAntage Point

    Fat is one of our macronutrients (along with protein and carbohydrates), and it is an essential part of our intake. It has many functions within the body, including organ protection, providing fuel, coating nerve cells, making up organs (our brains are roughly 60% fat), making up cells (lipid bilayer), nutrient and phytochemical absorption, skin/hair/nail health, and hormone balance.

    As with anything diet related, the first step is to evaluate the source of your food. Are you eating mostly real, whole foods from nature, or processed, refined foods from the grocery store shelf.

    Good sources of fat are going to come from those whole food options.

    Tips

    1. Continue to eat real, whole foods, and follow a system (such as the healthy plate) to guide you to a balanced intake.
    2. Include good fats, such as from olives and olive oil, avocados, nuts and seeds, fatty fish, coconut oil, eggs, dairy, minimally processed meat, and even butter (especially if it’s grass fed and organic). Remember that, although we shouldn’t fear fat from animals, we should still get plenty of it from antioxidant-rich plant-based foods. Balance is important.
    3. Avoid the following: fast food, fried foods, heavily processed meats, processed/packaged foods – like TV dinners and box meals – refined sugars and sweets (including sugar from fluids); highly processed vegetables oils, such as soy, corn, safflower, as well as Crisco and other hydrogenated oils.

    The fat sources we choose, as well as the overall quality of our diet and lifestyle, will make a huge difference on whether that fat will be helpful or harmful.

    Eat well!

    Source: Sieger Giroux MS, RD, LDN is a registered dietitian at the Marion VA. In this episode of Fresh Focus, MOVE! Dietitian Sieger Giroux provides insight on saturated and unsaturated fats and how listeners can incorporate those into the healthy plate method.


    References:

    1. https://www.blogs.va.gov/VAntage/77632/fresh-focus-4-healthy-plate-method-about-fats/

    Recommendation to wear eye protection against coronavirus

    “If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it. It’s not universally recommended, but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can.”  Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

    Updated: August 13, 2020 at 4:59 p.m. ET.

    Based on what doctors know about how Covid-19 spreads, it’s possible to get infected through your eyes, but not common.  However, it makes sense to use eye protection and a mask anywhere you can’t effectively maintain social distance from others for an extended period such as on board a plane or in a classroom.

    Wearing eye protection in public to fend off COVID-19, according to Dr. Fauci, “…is not universally recommended, but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can.” But one reason that this hasn’t been pushed for the general public yet, he suggested, is because, “it’s so easy for people to just make a cloth mask.”

    GETTY IMAGES

    Glasses or sunglasses can provide some protection, but due to the openings on the top, bottom and sides,  aerosols could still get in.

    Face shields and protective goggles are advised by medical experts.  Protective eye goggles should “fit snugly around the corners of the eye and across the brow.  Face shields work because they protect the crown and chin from exposure, as well as the eyes.  But, you still must wear a mask when wearing a face shield in order to cover your nose and mouth.

    “If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it.” — Dr. Anthony Fauci

    Fauci explained that the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 infects mucosal surfaces — or parts of the body including the eyes, nose and mouth that secrete mucus to stop pathogens and dirt from getting into your body. So “perfect protection” of your mucosal surfaces would include covering every one of them up, he said.

    “Theoretically you should protect all of the mucosal surfaces, so if you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” he said.

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests protective eyewear for health care professionals, noting that “use of eye protection is recommended in areas with moderate to substantial community transmission.” As a result, doctors and nurses do wear goggles or face shields in areas where they are coming into close contact with COVID-19 patients.


    1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-fauci-recommends-wearing-goggles-to-prevent-catching-the-coronavirus-2020-07-29?mod=nicole-lyn-pesce&link=sfmw_fb
    2. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/dr-anthony-fauci-goggles-and-eye-shields-can-prevent-covid-19-spread.html

    Cotton cloth masks are effective preventing spread of virus

    “Cloth face coverings are one of the most powerful weapons we have to slow and stop the spread of the virus – particularly when used universally within a community setting.”  Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

    A group of researchers from Duke University are providing answers to the continuing questions about the efficacy of masks.  The researchers analyzed forteen different facial coverings ranging from hospital-grade N95 respirators to bandanas. Of the 14 masks and other coverings tested, the study found that some easily accessible cotton cloth masks are about as effective as standard surgical masks, while popular alternatives such as neck gaiters made of thin, stretchy material may be worse than not wearing a mask at all.

    A fitted N95 mask proved was the most effective from the tests noting that the mask allowed “no droplets at all” to come out, according to researchers. Meanwhile, a breathable neck gaiter ranked worse than the no-mask control group.

    Neck gaiters are extremely convenient since which they don’t restrict air and droplets which is the reason why they’re not doing much of a job helping people stopping the spread of the virus.

    Several studies find that wearing masks will curb the transmission and reduce the risk of coronavirus infection.  Masks do work and they do cut down transmission of the virus.  And, some masks are better than others.


    References:

    1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/mask-test-duke-covid/2020/08/10/4f2bb888-db18-11ea-b205-ff838e15a9a6_story.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main
    2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/13/spate-new-research-supports-wearing-masks-control-coronavirus-spread/

    Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousand | Bloomberg

    “Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousands — And No One Is Tracking the Carnage”

    By Madeleine Ngo, August 11, 2020, 9:08 AM EDT

    • They simply close down and never show up in bankruptcy tallies
    • More than half of owners are worried their firm won’t survive

    “Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage. ”

    “By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge.”

    “This wave of silent failures goes uncounted in part because real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce, and because owners of small firms often have no debt, and thus no need for bankruptcy court.”

    “Yelp Inc., the online reviewer, has data showing more than 80,000 small businesses permanently shuttered from March 1 to July 25. About 60,000 were local businesses, or firms with fewer than five locations.”

    “While the businesses are small individually, the collective impact of their failures could be substantial. Firms with fewer than 500 employees account for about 44% of U.S. economic activity, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration report, and they employ almost half of all American workers.”

    “Small business attrition is high even in normal times. Only about half of all establishments survive for at least five years, according to the SBA. But the swiftness of the pandemic and the huge drop in economic activity is hitting hard among typically upbeat entrepreneurs. About 58% of small business owners say they’re worried about permanently closing, according to a July U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey.”

    Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews


    References:

    1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms-die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures-uncounted?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews